Welcome to the The Hockey Writers’ Countdown of the ten most impactful players of the 2024-25 season. This is not a countdown of the ten best but rather a list of players slated to have the biggest impact. These ten players offer unique contributions, are difficult to replace, and are essential to the New Jersey Devils’ quest to return to the postseason. The list continues with number nine, Dawson Mercer.
The Devils used the 18th pick in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft to acquire Dawson Mercer. He was their second first-round pick in that draft after receiving the pick from the Arizona Coyotes in a trade for Taylor Hall. He burst onto the NHL scene a year later, making the Devils out of training camp as a 19-year-old. In the three years since, he has played every game for the Devils and has an active consecutive games streak of 246 games, currently tied for ninth most among active streaks in the NHL.
Related: Counting Down the 10 Most Impactful Devils for 2024-25 – No. 10 – Curtis Lazar
Mercer, like most young players, has been streaky. After two years, when he seemed to be emerging into a two-way star for New Jersey, he took a step back in his third season. In his first season, he scored 17 goals and 42 points, in his second, he tallied 27 goals and 56 points then regressed in season three with 20 goals and 33 points. Growth is rarely linear, but the stark dropoff of Mercer’s game is concerning; the Devils firmly believe in his future, as demonstrated by refusing to include him in trade packages for goaltenders this past season.
Mercer is currently an unsigned, restricted free agent. The Devils hold his rights, and he cannot avail himself of arbitration until next season. In June, the Devils made a qualifying offer to Mercer, ensuring they wanted him to remain a Devil. In his July press conference, general manager Tom Fitzgerald indicated that now that the draft and unrestricted free agency were complete, his next priority would be restricted free agents like Mercer. @AFPAnalytics has projected that Mercer will receive a two-year deal for $3.79 million annually. A two-year “bridge” deal would make sense for both parties as it would compensate Mercer for his early success and allow the team to assess his true value over a broader period. It also makes economic sense for both parties as it would buy out one year of arbitration eligibility but still leave two years of team control while pushing a decision on a long-term contract to a time when the salary cap is higher, and such a contract would take Mercer through his early 30s.
Mercer’s Doggedness Defines His Game
As a 22-year-old, Mercer is still filling out his frame. At his postseason press conference, Fitzgerald called out the Devils’ strength and maturity, indicating that his team needed to improve in both areas. Fortunately for New Jersey, Mercer has demonstrated maturity that belies his youth since his debut. He notched an assist in that game and quickly became a fan favorite for his dogged play. Despite his size, Mercer is unafraid to mix it up in any area of the ice and has made contributions in all three zones and at all strengths. For most of the 2023-24 season, he was entrusted with being part of the team’s top penalty-killing unit alongside Erik Haula.
Mercer’s game has room to grow. He has played both center and wing and while he once seemed destined to be the 3C of the future, he was deployed almost exclusively at wing last season. The numbers weren’t pretty in 2023-24. His goals and assists both decreased significantly while his ice time remained stagnant. The lack of two-way play, which had become his calling card, was more concerning than his offensive downturn. He went from plus-13 at 5v5 in 2022-23 to minus-15 last season, a 28-point swing. His expected goals for percentage (xGF%) also dipped from 55.5 to 49.6. At 5v5 with Mercer on the ice, the team was out-chanced, outshot, scored 11 goals less than expected, and gave up three more goals than expected. Put another way, the team’s on-ice shooting percentage fell from nine to seven percent, and the save percentage (SV%) cratered from .916 to .902. Fortunately, Mercer is a good candidate for a bounce-back season.
Mercer’s Impact on the Devils’ Success
Mercer is a lynchpin to the way the Devils want to play. His versatility and talent should seamlessly integrate into new head coach Sheldon Keefe’s system. With the loss of Tyler Toffoli, the team needs Mercer to become a top-six threat, especially since he is the only top-six mainstay who shoots right-handed. In the past, the Devils have asked a lot from Mercer, who has been playing him through the lineup and on both special teams. Perhaps the solution is to give him a more defined role and allow him to focus on discrete areas to foster improvement. Moving forward, it would make a huge difference if Mercer returned to New Jersey with increased strength and muscle in his frame. He has never been shy about sticking his nose in dirty areas and collecting goals in and around the crease. Added size and strength would make him even more of a threat there and on the forecheck.
Like many wingers, Mercer has produced his best numbers when put on a line with Nico Hischier. Over the past two seasons at 5v5, the duo combined for a 57.1 xGF% and bested that by scoring over 58% of the actual goals. Their defensive synergy is even more stark. The pair held opponents to 2.06 goals against per 60 minutes, and on a team known for average, at best, goaltending in that time, the on-ice .928 SV% is staggering.
Mercer has also found success playing with Jack Hughes. While not nearly the same defensive success, the offensive numbers are impressive. At 5v5 since the 2022-23 season, the pair scored 3.77 goals per 60 minutes and shot over 11%. Mercer has struggled some away from the top two centers, but that is to be expected. His ability to succeed with both Hischier and Hughes though gives Keefe flexibility in how he deploys his lines. Should he want to match Hischier against an opponent’s top line, having a strong defensive forward like Mercer makes that line extremely formidable.
One of the biggest decisions facing Keefe in training camp is which of Mercer, Erik Haula, Ondrej Palat, Stefan Noesen, Tomas Tatar, and possibly Paul Cotter are going to be used to form the third line and which two of the six will be inserted in the top six. Based on Keefe’s history, it is unlikely that the lines will be set in stone. However, Mercer’s pace and willingness to play in the dirty areas could vault him into a permanent spot in the top six. The departures of Alexander Holtz and Toffoli leave a hole for a right-handed top-six wing, and Mercer should get the first opportunity at that spot. If Mercer can grab that spot, it would have an enormous impact on a team that will start the season near the cap, as adding to the top six at the trade deadline can be very expensive, as trading for Timo Meier demonstrated.
Mercer seemed to internalize the team’s belief that he needed to add more physicality to his game. Over the last quarter of the season, he was noticeably more involved in 1v1 battles along the wall and quicker to jump into scrums. This came to a head in the game against the New York Rangers, beginning with a line brawl. Minutes later, in response to a borderline hit by the Rangers’ Will Cuylle on teammate Brendan Smith, Mercer did not hesitate in challenging Cuylle, a player three inches taller and over 30 pounds heavier. Mercer led the team in hits taken, and almost half of those came during the last quarter of the season. He needs to carry that physicality into the upcoming season if the Devils are to return to the playoffs.
What They Are Saying About Mercer
After the line brawl game against the Rangers, the Devils’ players who were banished to the locker room with game misconducts talked about how, a few minutes later, they heard someone else walking back down the hallway to the room. With a chuckle, they conceded that they were shocked to see that the mystery man was Mercer, perhaps the last person they expected to be heading back with a misconduct. Teammate Smith spoke after the game about what he thought of Mercer standing up for him.
“He’s a man…he stepped right in there and didn’t shy away from anything. He’s just protecting his teammates. I think it says a lot about him and his character and just the the team in here. So I’m proud of him for sure.”
Brendan Smith, April 3, 2024
Devils management has shown faith in Mercer despite a difficult 2023-24 campaign. His ability to vindicate that faith will go a long way toward determining how successful a season the team has. For Mercer’s 200-foot game and the room for improvement in his game with the odds on a strong bounce-back season, he is the ninth most impactful player on the 2024-25 Devils. Stay tuned for number eight, which is coming soon.
(Advanced Stats Per Natural Stat Trick)
