On Sunday (Jan. 19), the New Jersey Devils left the ice to a chorus of boos as they dropped a ninth contest in their last 11 games. Just a few weeks ago, they were neck-and-neck with the top teams in the league. Now, they’ve slipped all the way to 13th based on points percentage.
In this horrid stretch, they’ve scored just 20 goals, a 1.82 goals per game (G/GP) pace that would place them dead last in the NHL by ~0.55 (Anaheim Ducks, 2.37). It’s almost entirely been that lack of scoring hurting them during this time, as they’ve only given up 2.90 G/GP, which remains better than 20 teams.
Prior to this stretch, they scored 3.35 G/GP and gave up 2.44 G/GP. The defense was playing to a historic level of dominance, often holding teams to fewer than 15 shots. It was unfair to expect them to play that well for that long. They’ve still been good enough. But why has the offense decreased by over 45%?
Depth Scoring Is Key Issue
It’s simple: the team has lacked depth scoring for a while. Now, the stars are pressing and trying to do too much in realizing that if they don’t score, nobody else will.
The Hockey Writers asked Sheldon Keefe if this was the case, and he said, “That’s a bulls— excuse,” before giving a long explanation as to why the team as a whole is “disconnected”.
It’s understandable he would say this, given that putting down his bottom-six guys (who are surely working hard) won’t solve anything. He can only work with the roster he has. But with that being said, the proof is in the numbers.
Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula, Curtis Lazar, Justin Dowling, Kurtis MacDermid and Nate Bastian have a combined 33 points in 185 combined games. For stats purposes, we’ll call these players the ‘Group of Six’.
The only members of the bottom-six that have been even “okay” offensively are Paul Cotter and Dawson Mercer, who still aren’t exactly lighting it up. But they can chip in from time to time, as they each have ten goals.
Overall, Tatar’s scoring is down ~30% from last season. Haula, 43%. Lazar, 76%. Tatar was brought back in hopes of replicating his 2022-23 season, but his production is down over 56% from then. The latter two, while not offensive dynamos, were able to provide enough depth scoring to complement the Devils’ stars and keep them in the top half of league scoring last season. Now, they’re virtually invisible.
Prior to Dec. 28, the ‘Group of Six’ were collectively scoring 0.21 points per game (P/GP), which isn’t good in its own right. But since then, it’s been even worse…cutting itself by ~48% to 0.11 P/GP.
Related: Catching Up With Promising Devils Prospect, Herman Träff
Also in this stretch, the Devils’ “Big Four” – Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, have seen their collective G/GP free-fall from 0.40 to 0.20, and their P/GP from 1.01 to 0.55. Yes, these top guys have to be much better. But they’re human beings, and it’s hard to imagine that knowing you’re basically the team’s only offensive hope is good for the psyche.
From the eye test, it seems that way as well. J. Hughes has been turning the puck over way more lately. Bratt hasn’t looked nearly as strong on the puck and has whiffed on a ton of shots. Hischier’s been the best of the group but still has bobbled the puck a little more than usual. And it seems that Meier is trying to pick the perfect spot, often missing the net despite generating a plethora of chances. All signs of guys trying a little too hard.
This group – Bratt, Hughes and Hischier specifically, have been through a lot of changes within the organization. Heck, even Meier is on his third head coach. After a dreadful 2023-24 season and a bunch of offseason moves, the pressure is on to finally start contending.
So, that brings us right to the main point: the Devils need to make a move now. The price for a rental middle-six guy who can score shouldn’t be too high; the Devils got just a second and third-round pick for Tyler Toffoli last season, who was on a 35-goal pace. Kyle Palmieri anyone?
Maybe it’ll be a big splash, like J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks, who has 315 points in his last 277 NHL games. Or a much smaller but impactful move, like a solid bottom-sixer in Trent Frederic from the Boston Bruins. Regardless, the wheels have to be put in motion now, or the Devils will continue to trickle down the standings like they have in recent weeks.
We’ve seen the positive mental impacts of change – whether it be a trade, a new coach, etc. Obviously, there’s no way Keefe should be anywhere remotely near the hot seat. So that means their most viable and obvious option for change is a trade. They’re in desperate need of that spark.
In a perfect world, they need one more middle-six scorer type and someone to replace one of the bottom-six black holes. Here’s what a forward group could look like:
Bratt — Hughes — Palmieri
Meier — Hischier — Noesen
Palat — Frederic — Mercer
Cotter/Tatar — Lazar/Haula — Bastian/Halonen
It feels like last season in the sense that the players seem out of answers other than the typical ‘we have to be better’ or ‘we just need to flush it and move on’. But the difference is, the Devils have built enough of a cushion where they still have a 94.3% chance to make the playoffs, per MoneyPuck. Why let it spiral out of control any longer than it has to?
