It’s no secret that the 2023 free-agent class is weaker than most years. There’s no elite talent, meaning teams will likely overpay for middle-of-the-lineup players, leading to problematic contracts over time. For a New Jersey Devils organization that recently re-signed Jesper Bratt to an eight-year extension at $7.875 million annually and is working away at a Timo Meier extension, they need to be smart in free agency if they choose to dive in. Here are four UFAs general manager Tom Fitzgerald should avoid on July 1.
Tyler Bertuzzi
The Boston Bruins are in cap hell and need to clear money to build an NHL roster for 2023-24. One reason they have to move money is they’d like to re-sign Tyler Bertuzzi, who they acquired from the Detroit Red Wings at the 2023 trade deadline. He played well for the Bruins, totaling 16 points in 21 games, so it’s easy to see why they’d like him to stick around.
Even though Bertuzzi has had trouble staying healthy over the last three seasons — he’s only played in 127 games — he’s been a productive top-six forward. He finished with 30 goals in 2021-22 and has averaged 64 points per 82 games over the last three years. His play has been worth a total goals above replacement (GAR) of 22.6 over that stretch, so he’s been quite valuable, especially offensively.
Bertuzzi plays with an edge and is a productive top-six winger when healthy, so there is a fit for him on the Devils if the Bruins don’t find a way to re-sign him. The issue is his ability to stay healthy and what he projects to land as a UFA forward. Per Evolving-Hockey, their most likely contract projection for him is a four-year deal at a cap hit of $5.528 million.
With Bratt re-signed and Meier to follow in the coming weeks, that’s a price too rich for the Devils to target in free agency. After signing Ondrej Palát to a five-year contract at a cap hit of $6 million a year ago in free agency, they can’t afford to take a risk on someone like Bertuzzi, who’s been out of the lineup more than he’s been in due to injuries over the last three years.
Ivan Barbashev
Remember a couple of weeks ago when I mentioned Ivan Barbashev as a potential target for the Devils? Well, I’m here to walk that back because things have changed. On a recent episode of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman spoke about Barbashev and a contract extension with the Vegas Golden Knights. While the door hasn’t closed on a return to Vegas, it seems unlikely at this point.
The reason for that is that Friedman mentioned Barbashev could get a max-term deal — either seven years as a UFA or eight if the Golden Knights can find a sign-and-trade. Barbashev is a solid player, but for a max-term deal, that could cause plenty of problems for any team that signs him.
Barbashev is a solid player. He totaled 26 goals and 60 points a season ago and can play left wing or center. His production dropped to 16 goals and 45 points this season, but that wasn’t a surprise since he shot just over 23 percent in 2021-22. He’s provided value offensively over the last three seasons, but a forward whose player card looks like this should not get a max-term deal:
There is likely recency bias in teams thinking max-term contract for Barbashev since he had 18 points in 22 games for the Golden Knights in their run to a Stanley Cup championship. Per Evolving-Hockey, a seven-year deal for Barbashev could come at a cap hit of $4.922 million, while eight years could top $6 million. The former isn’t the worse cap hit, but it’s the term that’d be a killer. That should keep the Devils far away if he makes it to the open market.
Joonas Korpisalo
Per Pierre LeBrun, there’s mutual interest between Connor Hellebuyck and the Devils via a sign-and-trade. That means the Devils could be in the market for a goalie, even if they don’t end up with Hellebuyck.
There’s a decent crop of UFA netminders, with Joonas Korpisalo being one of them. He had a solid 2021-22 season, finishing with a .914 save percentage between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Los Angeles Kings, who acquired him at the trade deadline. He had a .921 SV% for the Kings in 11 starts, but he did struggle in the playoffs, totaling a .892 SV%.
Related: Devils 2023 Free Agent Targets: Goaltenders
That’s been the issue with Korpisalo throughout his career: there are too many peaks and valleys. He finished with a .911 SV% in 2019-20, but in the following two years, his SV% never crossed .900. He did have hip surgery in March 2022, so perhaps that explains the struggles in the previous couple of years.
If the Devils think his hip was the problem and are comfortable signing him, then I could see a fit. He only projects for a two-year deal at a cap hit of $2.616 million. But given his peaks and valleys and more consistent UFA goalies like Antti Raanta, Semyon Varlamov and Adin Hill potentially being available, the Devils would be wise to target them over Korpisalo, especially if they don’t end up trading for Hellebuyck.
Alex Killorn
The Devils have already signed one Cup winner from the Tampa Bay Lightning in Palát, so how about one more? Alex Killorn is coming off another solid season, finishing with 27 goals and 64 points in 82 games. Given the crop of free-agent forwards, you could argue he’s the best available, even with him approaching 34 years old.
Though Killorn had a career year, he totaled 25 goals and 59 points just a season ago. He is durable, having played in all 82 games across the last two seasons. But even though that may seem appealing, there are some serious red flags. For starters, he shot a career-high 18.9 percent this season, well above his career average of 12.5 percent. He had an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.89 percent, the highest on-ice shooting percentage among Lightning skaters and the highest mark of his career.
Killorn finished with an expected goals percentage below 50 percent for the second consecutive year, so there’s plenty to suggest significant regression is coming, especially if he’s on another team in 2023-24. That’s better visualized in his RAPM chart when comparing his goals for per 60 to his xG per 60, which shows he produced well above his expected numbers this season:
Per Evolving-Hockey, Killorn projects to land a six-year deal at a cap hit of $6.778 million. That’s a bit rich, in my opinion, but even Daily Faceoff has him landing a four-year contract at a cap hit of $5.25 million. That seems more “reasonable,” but even then, the Devils need to stay far away. They can’t afford to add a bad contract to their books, and Killorn’s next deal screams potential poison pill, especially since he turns 34 at the start of next season.
Devils Unlikely to Be Big Free-Agent Spenders
There are a couple of free agents who could make sense for the Devils up front, namely Vladimir Tarasenko and Michael Bunting. Otherwise, their best bet for adding scoring depth will come through the trade market. Though I’d stay away from Korpisalo, given his up-and-down play, I am on the fence about it. I could see the Devils having interest, and they could do worse, but there is some risk involved for sure.
Either way, I can’t see the Devils spending big in free agency, especially for the players mentioned in this post. They might fill out defensive and/or goaltending depth come July 1, but most of their significant additions will likely occur through trades.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey
