The New Jersey Devils have been underperforming after entering the season with some of the highest expectations in franchise history. Their 8-7-1 record (17 points) currently ranks sixth in the Metropolitan Division – outside of a playoff spot. Of all teams in the Metro, only the Columbus Blue Jackets have given up more goals (70) than the Devils’ 62.
This is the second edition of a biweekly series called “Devils Stock Market” – which highlights who’s been on their game and who the team needs to see more from.
Many issues have contributed to the team’s struggles: even-strength finishing, defense, and goaltending. These issues are a direct outcome of over and under-performing players. This series intends to look at the biggest exclamation points – both good and bad – and emphasize certain trends in their play.
So, I’ll begin with the positive…who’s trending up?
Stock Up: Dawson Mercer ($MERC)
In the first and most recent edition of this series, Dawson Mercer’s stock was down. He began the season with a jaw-dropping zero points in his first ten games, and it wasn’t even poor luck. He was averaging less than one shot-on-goal (SOG) per game and was (by far) the worst Devil in terms of Corsi for percentage (CF%).
With injuries running rampant through the team, Mercer needed to step up in a big way. And so far, he’s delivered. He’s been on the scoresheet in four of his last six games, which includes three goals. Since Nov. 3rd in St. Louis, Mercer has averaged 3.14 SOG per game – which has more than quadrupled his pace since the last edition of this series.
Since that Nov. 3rd contest against the Blues, the Devils have generated 17 more chances than they’ve given up with Mercer on the ice. It’s likely that his slow start was attributed to getting used to playing in a lesser role with the addition of Tyler Toffoli into the top-six.
Jack Hughes has returned from his injury and Nico Hischier is practicing with the team, so his return is imminent as well. With Mercer now playing better, the offense is set up to put up crooked numbers on a consistent basis. If the Devils choose to deploy Mercer at center, Michael McLeod can move all the way down to a 4C role and the Devils will have one of the strongest center groups in the NHL: Hughes, Hischier, Mercer, and McLeod.
In a mix of necessity plus improved play, Mercer’s ice time in the latter half of his games played has shot up nearly two minutes, from 16:46 to 18:40.
From the eye test, his speed, board work, and decision-making are much improved as well. The Newfoundland native had 27 goals and 29 assists last season, so if he keeps up his recent play, it’s only a matter of time before the points start coming in bunches.
Stock Down: Dougie Hamilton ($HAM)
Dougie Hamilton’s tenure as a Devil has been, well, confusing. He’s been one of their most clutch players, coming off of a season when his 74 points in 82 games (0.902 P/G) was a driving force behind the most successful regular season Devils team of all time.
This season, his offense has been right on par with that (0.875 P/G), but his defense has seemed non-existent at times. The most glaring difference is his plus-minus rating, which was plus-23 last season and helped him finish sixth in Norris Trophy voting. However, so far this season, he’s a minus-8, which is troubling considering he’s playing alongside the same D-partner (Jonas Siegenthaler) and on a roster that’s virtually the same.
The issue is that the analytics don’t back it up too much. He has the highest CF% among eligible defensemen (min. 5 GP) on the team – 57.99%. His expected goals for (xGF) is also the highest among defensemen – 58.44%. (via Natural Stat Trick)
So, why would a near-point-per-game defenseman who is crushing the analytics be considered detrimental to the team? Well, that’s easy. Hamilton’s free-range playstyle often turns directly into slam-dunk scoring chances against, which analytics don’t always get a full glimpse of.
Take this example from the game vs. the Winnipeg Jets on Nov. 14:
Hamilton blew his coverage and lacked effort/awareness in getting back to cover the shooter. The result was a Nikolaj Ehlers goal that analytics showed was only worth 0.069 “expected goals” (per CJ Turtoro), but in reality, it was a wide-open net that most players will cash in on with ease. This happened in a tie game late in the second period, no less. There have been a multitude of situations like this with Hamilton, and it’s why analytics can be helpful, but not always tell the full story.
But what even those analytics *do* tell us is that despite his elite offense, he currently has the worst expected goals-against (in all situations) on the team with 23.18. That’s well over a goal per game that the other team is expected to score when Hamilton is on the ice, and that includes the horrid miscalculations such as Ehlers’ goal for Winnipeg.
From the eye test, it seems that a great deal of odd-man rushes against have been the direct result of Hamilton being way out of position. Head coach Lindy Ruff hasn’t seemed to mind, especially last season when the Devils were finding all sorts of ways to win games. This season, that hasn’t been the case, and therefore the issue is magnified. To date, there hasn’t been any sort of disciplinary action, which leads me to believe that they feel his offense is worth the defensive mishaps. Last season, there was weight to that argument. This season, a minus-8 rating and a goals-for percentage of 40.54% could suggest otherwise.
The bottom line is there’s not much that can be done. Hamilton is only in the third year of a seven-year, $63 million deal. He’s going to continue to be their top-pairing defenseman, but the addition of Luke Hughes could mean that Hamilton’s future minutes get sheltered faster than some may think.
The Devils need Hamilton to provide some resemblance of defense for him to be of value. His offensive value is dynamite…there’s no question about that. But the defense needs a lot of work. There’s a fine line between smart aggression and untamed aggression; Hamilton has mostly displayed the latter.
Stock Up: Curtis Lazar ($LAZ)
When Curtis Lazar was acquired from the Vancouver Canucks at last season’s deadline, his former coach, Bruce Boudreau, raved about how he’d fit in New Jersey. He mentioned that Lazar would be a perfect 13th forward for them.
Related: 8 NHLers Thriving With Their New Teams
However, nobody could have foreseen Lazar being one of the most productive players on the team and getting first-line minutes alongside Jack Hughes. Lazar’s 61.82 xGF% has been the best on the team. Not only that but among forwards, it’s a whopping 7.36% higher than anyone else.
His 4.69 xGA ranks fourth in the NHL (min. 150 minutes played) and of that top-four, only Carl Grundstrom of the Los Angeles Kings has a higher xGF%. Essentially, this shows that Lazar has been one of the best defensive forwards in the league, while still generating significantly more chances than he gives up.
In simpler numbers, his five points in 15 games have already tied his points total from all of last season when he played 49 games. His 31 hits are second on the team (Kevin Bahl, 33) and first among forwards. He’s also won an incredible 31 of 49 faceoffs (70.7%) and has a team-leading plus-4 rating despite their negative goal differential.
By virtually every metric, Lazar has been better than Miles Wood, who the Devils let walk in favor of a much cheaper Lazar.
When he was moved to the first line to protect Hughes against the New York Rangers on Nov. 18, Lazar remarkably generated more scoring chances and high-danger chances than Hughes himself. His 80.91 xGF% led all skaters in that game, Rangers included.
For a team that has been starved for defense, Lazar has been an anchor and a breath of fresh air. Before the season, it was assumed that he would be a scratch on most nights if the team was healthy. Now, not only has he earned a spot, but he’s been one of their best players night in and night out.
In preseason media availability, Lazar was asked what he thought his role would be. He joked, “First line (and) power play.” Well, he’s halfway there. Furthermore, he has been a stand-up athlete and has seemed to have really improved the locker room with his infectious attitude and desire to help the team, no matter how big or small his role.
At age 28, the 2013 first-rounder is starting to make New Jersey home.
Stock Down: Vitek Vanecek ($VV)
No different than the last edition – Devils goaltending is still a major issue. Yes, the defense hasn’t been great, but Vitek Vanecek has underperformed all season.
On the surface, his 3.38 goals-against average (GAA) and his .889 save percentage (SV%) are, well, bad. The advanced stats back that up, as his minus-3.8 goals saved above expected ranks 22nd out of 27 starting goaltenders (min. 10 GP).
His high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) is the worst in the league at .568%. For reference, Mackenzie Blackwood’s HDSV% on the league-worst San Jose Sharks is still .721%, which is way higher than Vanecek’s. (via MoneyPuck)
As mentioned, the defense may have *some* factors but not this much. With Akira Schmid also struggling, Vanecek needs to take the reins as a true number one, but his performance thus far hasn’t even been backup-caliber, which leaves the Devils in quite a pickle.
General manager Tom Fitzgerald said he was still evaluating the goaltending position over the offseason, but he opted not to make any major decisions. Connor Hellebuyck of the Jets signed a massive extension so he’s no longer an option, and there’s not much else out there. Therefore, the Devils might have to overpay if neither of their goalies picks it up soon.
It almost seems like it’s one step forward, two steps backward for Vanecek this season. He’s made some stellar, highlight-reel saves that have given the Devils life at times. But it usually seems like they’re followed up by one to two soft goals later on.
He’s been wildly inconsistent, here are his save percentages from his last five games: .941%, .839%, .600%, .913%, .882%.
He finished the regular season last year with a GAA of 2.45. This season, he’s given up two goals or less just three times in ten full games.
If the defense can fix itself, which has looked promising with Colin Miller back, Vanecek just needs to play around league average for the Devils to win most games. With Hughes back and Nico Hischier nearly healthy, I’d expect the tide to start turning for the Devils. But if they are going to continually get sub-replacement level goaltending from Vanecek, the narrative around this season could change quickly.
These next few games will be crucial for Vanecek to get his footing. If more of the same continues, expect the organization to look for external help.
Which Devil Are You Investing In?
Lazar and Mercer should hopefully continue their strong play. However, Vanecek and Hamilton can’t really hurt the team much more than they have lately.
Obviously, players slump over the course of a season, and it’s still relatively early to make impulsive decisions and assumptions. But things need to change quickly before the Devils dig too deep of a hole to climb out of.
I don’t think anyone (except maybe Rangers fans) wants the Devils to be in the same conversation as the Edmonton Oilers…
