After the first week of the 2023-24 season, the Edmonton Oilers were 0-2-0. Any team can start with two losses, and it was nothing to overreact to despite being outscored 12-4. I dug into some overreactions after the first two games of the season that I and many others thought would have been cleaned up a bit by now. Well, I was wrong, and there is now cause for concern.
The Oilers are 1-5-1 with 17 goals for and 30 against. They rank 31st in the league, and although there are 75 games to go, what was concerning after a couple of games has continued to be an issue: the team’s goaltending and defense are not good enough, bad bounces, execution, luck, and abysmal five-on-five play. Here’s a look at how each started and how the Oilers are still struggling to find wins because of these factors.
Defense Can’t Adjust Quick Enough & Goalies Having a Rough Time
The Oilers’ goalies are struggling, but they have been holding the team in games. If it wasn’t for Jack Campbell in the sixth game of the season against the Minnesota Wild on Oct. 24, the Oilers would have been down by 5-6 goals by the end of the second period, not leading 3-2 heading into the third. Although the Oilers allowed five goals in a horrible third period, that was more on the defense and defensive system giving up chances.
The Oilers’ seventh game of the season was a 3-0 loss to the New York Rangers on Oct. 26, and again, it wasn’t on the goalie. This time, Stuart Skinner made some very good saves to keep the Oilers in the game. If it weren’t for their goaltending, Edmonton might have lost 6-0 instead (from “Edmonton Oilers scary bad in yet another loss”, Edmonton Journal, Oct. 26, 2023).
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The Oilers’ goaltending is positive news, but the numbers will continue to look bad as long as the system continues to break down and way too many goals are allowed. While a new defensive system takes time to be understood and executed properly, it has been a tough go. Almost every breakdown or high-danger scoring chance seems to find the back of the net. The coaching staff has finally started altering the defensive pairings, but more has to be done to help a defense unit that was untouched this offseason.
Oilers’ Luck Hasn’t Come Around Yet
While I am optimistic about the Oilers starting to be able to finish their good chances more, it’s tough to see that it still isn’t good enough yet. Puck luck, or PDO, is a combined save percentage and shooting percentage, which can be applied to a team or an individual and should also add up to 100 if a team/player is equally as lucky as unlucky. The Oilers’ PDO was 81.8 after two games, which is horrible. Their shooting percentage was 4.2 percent below the league average, and their save percentage was .148 below average.
While the Oilers have risen a bit, the numbers are still not appealing. They now have a 95.2 PDO, which is still bad. Their shooting percentage is 2.2 percent below league average, and their save percentage is still .04 below average.
At five-on-five, Edmonton is 10th in expected goals percentage (xG%) with 52.79 percent, but their goals percentage (Goals%) ranks 28th at 35.71 percent. This shows that the Oilers should be scoring at a much higher rate than they are, and that’s why they aren’t among the top teams in goals scored like last season (first in the league).
Their five-on-five play is the main issue — they have a strong power play again — and they have to find a way to score. The team has scored 10 goals and allowed 18 at five-on-five when the stats suggest they should have scored 16 and allowed 14. That makes a huge difference; the team has lost two one-goal games and could have made other games much closer (from “Oilers must get their act together to avoid missing out on what seemed within reach”, The Athletic, Oct. 27, 2023).
Oilers’ Five-On-Five Continuation
Part of why the Oilers were defeated in the second round last season by the Vegas Golden Knights is Edmonton didn’t get the power plays they’re used to. This didn’t allow them to win solely based on power-play goals. The Golden Knights were the best team at staying out of the box, and they exposed the Oilers’ play at five-on-five. Though they have the talent, scoring has been tough to come by, oddly enough.
On paper, the Oilers’ top-nine should be able to match up well against any team and score plenty of goals almost every game. But that hasn’t been the case, with just 10 even-strength goals. The lines have been shuffled, and it doesn’t help that Connor McDavid has missed the last two games due to injury.
At five-on-five, the Oilers have had more high-danger scoring chances than their opponents, with 54 for and 39 against. The league average is 51 for and against, but the Oilers have four high-danger goals for and 12 against. While they should convert more goals from their high-danger chances because of their skill, the high-danger chances against are finding the back of the Oilers’ net 23.5 percent of the time; the league average is 8.9 percent.
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The harsh reality is that there might not be a quick fix for these problems, and the Oilers could continue to dominate analytically but struggle to win games. If the numbers start to align with the team’s actual play, then the turnaround will happen sooner than expected, and everyone can put this very tough start behind them.
