Two years ago, Sam Ersson‘s NHL trajectory dramatically changed. On Jan. 23, 2024, Carter Hart left the Philadelphia Flyers on an indefinite leave of absence that was quickly revealed to be due to a sexual assault charge from the night after a now infamous Team Canada gala honoring the 2018 World Junior team. After five seasons as largely the team’s number one goaltender, Hart’s time in Philadelphia came to an abrupt end.
At the time, Ersson had played just 34 NHL games, and by and large, he had been a success. He won a battle with a fellow Swede, Felix Sandström, to be the team’s backup entering the 2023-24 season, and played so well that head coach John Tortorella gave him a larger share of the workload even before Hart left the team.
But over the last two years, Ersson has rarely lived up to that early potential. He was overworked the rest of that season and understandably ran out of gas. He was the best option the team had last season, but he delivered an underwhelming statistical performance. So far this season, things have only gotten worse.
After being pulled early in the second period on Thursday night, Ersson now sits with a ghastly .853 save percentage. That’s not just last in the NHL this season; it would be the worst for a goalie with as many games played as Ersson since Brian Hayward for the expansion San Jose Sharks in 1992-93, one of the highest scoring seasons in modern league history.
Publicly, Ersson has mostly been supported; the players obviously aren’t going to throw a teammate under the bus. However, his play has dropped to below NHL caliber, costing the Flyers valuable points in what is already a tight playoff race in the Eastern Conference.
Ersson Trending Downward
Going into the season, one of the biggest reasons to believe in Ersson was his win-loss record. While evaluating goalies primarily by that statistic is flawed, it can sometimes be telling. Despite posting a meager .883 SV% and allowing the fifth most goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (per Money Puck), Ersson managed a 22-17-5 record, a 91-point pace over 82 games. The other goalies, Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov, went 11-22-5, a pace of just 63 points. That’s a massive gap.
Ersson started the season slowly, but there was a common refrain to his struggles. The Flyers’ defense was limiting shots to an almost absurd level but still allowing dangerous chances to a fair degree. There is some truth to that. From the start of the season through Dec. 1, Philadelphia allowed the sixth fewest shots per 60 but the 15th most scoring chances per 60. For the whole season, those numbers are third and 11th, respectively.
Sure enough, the numbers support that narrative. In games where Ersson has faced 20 or more shots, he has a respectable .897 SV%. When the number falls below that threshold, it plummets to an unsightly .779%. But he’s been trending in the wrong direction over the last month, regardless of workload.
| SV% Facing 20 Shots or Less | SV% Facing 20+ Shots | |
| Before Dec. 18 | .795% | .905% |
| Since Dec. 18 | .761% | .880% |
Dan Vladař also has a drop off, but it’s nowhere near as drastic. He has a .910 SV% when facing over 20 shots, compared to a .872 SV% mark in the lower workload games. In the latter sample, he’s at least twice posted at least a .889 SV% in four of six games. Ersson, meanwhile, has failed to reach that mark in all nine starts where he’s faced less than 20 shots, clearing an .850% mark only once.
Beyond the workload disparity, there’s no obvious thing for Ersson to fix. His SV% is below average on low, medium, and high-danger chances, per NHL Edge. He’s a part of the team’s floundering penalty kill (as is Vladař), which is an untenable 13/23 (56.5%, second last to the Vancouver Canucks) in this calendar year.
Flyers’ Options
The Flyers got a look at the netminder who can most easily replace Ersson, 24-year-old Aleksei Kolosov, on Thursday night. After a rotten debut season in North America, Kolosov’s sophomore campaign has been much better so far. His .908 SV% in 19 American Hockey League games is a respectable 17th and a marked improvement over last season’s .884% mark.
Kolosov was briefly called up at the start of the season and delivered two respectable performances, totaling a .929 SV%. He was thrown into a tough situation mid-game Thursday, one day after being recalled, and wasn’t able to prevent the Pittsburgh Penguins from running away with a game they already led by multiple goals. Still, there are no guarantees he will be even a league-average backup.
The Flyers would surely love to give 20-year-old Carson Bjarnasson more time to develop before throwing him to the NHL wolves, especially after seeing what happened with Kolosov last season. But between him, Kolosov, and Egor Zavragin in the Kontinental Hockey League, the Flyers have one of the league’s deepest goalie prospect pipelines. But that doesn’t help them much right now.
Philadelphia could also attempt a low-cost trade. Perhaps the Penguins are willing to flip Stuart Skinner, whom they acquired last month in the Tristan Jarry trade (although moving him to a rival feels unlikely). If Connor Ingram successfully usurps Calvin Pickard for the number two job with the Edmonton Oilers, perhaps the Flyers consider a reunion with a netminder who had a .903 SV% over the past two seasons. Matt Murray has also been a solid number three for the Seattle Kraken.
All three are pending unrestricted free agents, so the cost shouldn’t be prohibitive. Had general manager Daniel Brière traded a fourth-round pick for a goaltender at the 2024 Trade Deadline instead of for depth defenseman Erik Johnson to partially offset the loss of Sean Walker (or made an additional, similar move), the Flyers probably would have made the playoffs. Maybe pulling the trigger this time could be the difference between which side of the playoff cut line the team falls on.
As long as Vladař is out, Ersson’s spot is safe. ESPN’s Emily Kaplan reported on Thursday night that he isn’t expected to miss significant time, which is key for the Flyers regardless of what happens with Ersson. Maybe at that point, the Flyers can give him a reset.
Hart (his predecessor) benefited from a nine-day rest in 2021 when things were snowballing, improving from an .815 SV% in March to .910% in April. Perhaps a conditioning stint with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms could restore some of Ersson’s confidence.
But his role in Philadelphia’s future is certainly in peril. A pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights, the Flyers could choose to walk away from the 26-year-old rather than tender him a $1.6 million qualifying offer.
Flyers Can’t Afford to Wait
The main reason there was little thought of Ersson not returning after a below-average 2024-25 campaign was his makeup. He was seen as capable of making timely saves when required, which was the logic behind his respectable win-loss record. His poise on breakaways and shootouts was another feather in his cap, an indication that he can handle high-pressure situations, and he clearly has the support of the players around him.
“[We have confidence in] both our goalies,” Travis Konecny said in a post-game interview following a November game against the Oilers that Vladař started, mentioning Ersson unprompted. “We have a great duo, and we have all the confidence in both of them. (Vladar has) been a fantastic addition, he’s a guy that people love in the locker room, same as Erss” (from “Despite poor statistics through 6 games, Flyers still have faith in Sam Ersson,” PHLY Sports, Nov. 19, 2025).
But that confidence can only remain for so long, and it’s becoming clear that this slump is nearing concerning territory.
“Yeah, he’s struggling, you can tell,” head coach Rick Tocchet said after Ersson was shelled for a season-high seven goals on Jan. 10 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. “You’re gonna have tough nights, it’s a tough night. If you’re gonna have an NHL career, sometimes you’re gonna be in the mud. You’ve gotta get yourself out of it.”
Right now, the Flyers need to get themselves out of the level of goaltending Ersson has provided so far this season. It would be great for everyone if he could pull himself out of that rut. But with a five-game winless streak dropping them out of a playoff spot, the Flyers can’t afford to wait much longer.
