The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off consecutive home losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning, and their struggles started before the opening face-off in their first meeting on Saturday. With a golden opportunity to finish off the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday and improve to 3-0-0 in 2026, they dropped the ball.
After failing to score on a 5-on-3 and allowing a shorthanded goal after one Maple Leaf exited the box, the Flyers lost 2-1 in overtime, costing them a point and sapping the momentum of an electric 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday.
Instead of turning the page against the Lightning after that OT loss in a two-game meeting, the NHL’s most dominant team of the last decade took that proverbial book and slammed it in the Flyers’ face, handing the orange and black their most lopsided defeat of the season on Saturday (7-2) and not letting up on Monday with a 5-1 victory.
Flyers Losing Ground
“Two tough games for us. They were two good challenges,” said captain Sean Couturier. “Obviously, I think we have a lot of work to do to get to that level. They’re a pretty experienced team that plays the right way and sticks to their game plan.”
The good news is that the Flyers’ regular-season series with the Lightning is mercifully over. Tampa Bay outscored them 13-3 and won the expected goals battle in all three games, collecting 55.25% of the total expected goals, per Natural Stat Trick. They also handed the Flyers consecutive regulation losses for the first time since the beginning of November.
Before this stretch, Philadelphia was in an enviable position. Entering Thursday’s contest, they were sixth in the NHL and third in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Carolina Hurricanes and Lightning by a slim margin. But six games against those two foes have widened the gap.
Flyers Caught in the Eye of the Storm
The Flyers have faced both the Hurricanes and Lightning with a similar schedule: one game early in the season, followed by two consecutive contests roughly eight weeks later. Unfortunately, the results were also the same.
The Flyers managed to collect a point in each of their three contests against the Hurricanes, losing in overtime once and in the shootout twice. But, frankly, a .500 points percentage in those meetings flatters the Flyers. As the Canes typically do, they dominated 5-on-5 play in each game, racking up at least 59 percent of the shot attempts and at least 55 percent of the expected goals.
If Carolina showed the Flyers the speed of a Stanley Cup contender, the Lightning flashed their star power. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed only two goals on 40 shots in the two games combined. Nikita Kucherov started the scoring on Saturday with two goals in the first 6:05 of regulation. Brayden Point had four points despite missing the second half of Monday’s contest due to injury. Those three were good enough to carry the Lightning by themselves.
Philadelphia was considerably banged up for the last two games. Tyson Foerster’s season-ending injury is becoming a factor, while injuries earlier in the week sidelined Jamie Drysdale and Bobby Brink for both games, plus Travis Konecny on Saturday. But that excuse doesn’t hold water, given that the Lightning played without Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh (and lost Point midway through Monday’s contest). Injuries also limited the Hurricanes’ Jaccob Slavin to just 31:19 against the Flyers this season.
Meanwhile, the Flyers’ best players weren’t good enough. The Lightning held Trevor Zegras pointless in all three meetings, and he’s been held off the scoresheet in five of his last six games. Travis Sanheim’s 30.43% xG share on Saturday was his third-lowest of the season. The opponents in the other two games? The Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers, another team full of high-end talent (but one the Flyers managed to beat 6-3 in Edmonton on Jan. 3).
Judging by the smattering of Bronx cheers, most of the fans in attendance on Saturday will pin that loss solely on goaltender Sam Ersson, whose -4.55 goals saved above expected (per Money Puck) was the worst mark of any Flyer over the last two seasons. But the Flyers weren’t able to take advantage of Lightning head coach Jon Cooper starting his backup goaltender, Jonas Johansson, on Monday, who had a .891 save percentage before stopping 20 of 21 shots.
Hurricanes and Lightning Are Not Going Anywhere
The Flyers losing to the Lightning or Hurricanes isn’t a revelation, nor does it mean everything is doomed. Philadelphia is still building for the future; Tampa Bay and Carolina are contending now. The Lightning don’t have a first-round pick until 2028, and neither team made a first-round pick last year. Meanwhile, Flyers GM Daniel Brière has made five first-round selections (two in the top 10) since he was hired in 2023, and the Flyers have an extra first-round pick in 2027.
But the problem is that neither team is going away. The Lightning have reached the Eastern Conference Final every season since 2018 and all but once (2017) since 2015. They’re both middle of the pack in average age (Tampa Bay is 18th, Carolina is 21st), and star players tend to age better because they’re declining from a very high ceiling.
Philadelphia has notched some impressive victories this season. They’ve taken down the Florida Panthers twice (although if there’s any team that can legitimately use injuries as an excuse, it’s the two-time defending champions). There was the road win against the Oilers and another one against the New Jersey Devils when they were still seen as a legitimate contender (albeit with Jack Hughes sidelined at the time).
The next stretch of games will be critical for jostling for position in the ever-crowded Eastern Conference. The surging Buffalo Sabres are suddenly not to be taken lightly. The Pittsburgh Penguins recently rattled off a solid win streak of their own, and though the New York Rangers are trending in the wrong direction, one brief hot streak could get them on the right side of the postseason cut line again.
What the Flyers Need to Improve Now
The biggest issue with the Flyers is their power play, which is again stuck near the league’s cellar. The special team grades better analytically this season than in the past – ranked ninth in xG per 60 and 10th in high-danger chances – but without better finishing, they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
Their struggles have also masked the fact that their penalty kill has struggled just as much. The unit ranks 14th on the season but 28th since Dec. 1. Goaltending has been the main culprit, as the Flyers are 30th in shorthanded save percentage over the last six weeks. There’s optimism that this will improve, but there’s no guarantee.
Related: Flyers’ Criticism of Michkov Is Hypocritical, Self-Destructive & Wrong
Philadelphia’s habit of starting slow is also catching up to them. The Flyers have been remarkably solid when surrendering the first goal this season, but have lost four of their last six when falling behind 1-0, all in regulation, since Dec. 28. As games start to get tighter and more meaningful down the stretch, pulling off regular comebacks will be difficult, especially for a team that isn’t brimming with offensive talent.
