It’s looking like Alexei Kolosov, a 22-year-old goaltending prospect, will be returning to the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) in 2024-25. However, he signed an entry-level contract with the Philadelphia Flyers and was meant to play in North America this upcoming season—the KHL was never supposed to be an option. According to general manager (GM) Danny Briere, he needs to “step up and respect the contract that he signed.”
"It's time for him to step up and respect the contract that he signed."
— Jordan Hall (@JHallNBCS) September 18, 2024
One has to seriously wonder if this can ever be mended, if Alexei Kolosov will ever play for the Flyers. https://t.co/TjIYzem5Ht
This relationship appears to be a souring one, perhaps beyond repair—GMs don’t usually talk about their players with this kind of tone. If a trade is in Kolosov’s future, it wouldn’t be the first time Briere has dealt a disgruntled top prospect, as it’s something that unfolded with Cutter Gauthier on Jan. 8, 2024.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported that the Flyers’ asking price for a Kolosov deal is a second-round pick, but teams are hesitant to make that kind of commitment in this time of uncertainty. So, the worst-case scenario here seems simple: Kolosov is dealt to another team for a cheap return. But how would that affect the team’s goaltending? Who do they have between the pipes to make up for this devastating loss if all fears come to fruition? Well, there is one who I personally think could rank above the rest when all is said and done.
Is Zavragin the Goaltender of the Future?
Throughout his career up to this point, 19-year-old Yegor Zavragin has put up some impressive numbers in Russia. A third-round pick in 2023, he took the next step in 2023-24 and is looking to take yet another leap in 2024-25. Let’s see how he has progressed and compare that to another star netminder with close-to-identical totals.
In his last campaign prior to draft eligibility, Zavragin had a .930 save percentage (SV%), 2.13 goals-against average (GAA), and a 20-4-2 record in the Junior Hockey League (MHL). Among age-16 netminders with at least five games played, his SV% is the fifth-best ever recorded out of the 50 qualifiers. No surprise, the second-best player on that list is two-time Stanley Cup champion Andrei Vasilevskiy with a .937 SV%—he should make the Hockey Hall of Fame someday.
In the MHL as a whole, he finished in the 90th percentile for SV% in 2021-22. Zavragin’s career trajectory has been pretty similar to that of New York Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin, who is the best in the business right now according to some. The latter had a .920 SV% in 15 games, putting him in the 84th percentile for the MHL in 2012-13.
Zavragin took a step back in 2022-23, putting up a .920 SV% in the MHL with 2.49 GAA and an 11-6-1 record. He was only in the 64th percentile for SV% that season, well behind Shesterkin’s .947 total which put him in the 98th percentile. The former was taken in the third round of the draft as mentioned before, while the latter was a fourth-round selection.
Things really started to get interesting in the first season after these two were drafted. Both played in the Supreme Hockey League (VHL) in 2023-24 and 2014-15 respectively, putting up some promising totals. They each had a .943 SV%, placing them in the 99th percentile for the statistic. Zavragin also had a .945 SV% in the MHL in nine contests and had a whopping 19-2-2 record both there and the VHL combined.
That’s kind of where we have to end, as Zavragin is in the early stages of his 2024-25 campaign. He has a .930 SV% in the KHL (Russia’s top professional league) in two contests, which is the 14th-best mark among all goaltenders so far. Shesterkin mostly remained in the VHL when he was at this point of his career, putting up a jaw-dropping .954 SV% in 25 games. He had a .912 SV% in the KHL in seven contests.
The Shesterkin comparison might seem misleading, as it could be seen as a stretch to compare Zavragin to the best possible outcome, but it has validity. First, they’ve had basically the same path—Shesterkin played in the KHL before Zavragin did, but he put up subpar numbers overall (never finishing above the 50th percentile for SV%) and he only had 22 KHL contests under his belt entering his third season following his selection by the Rangers.
Interestingly, the two best under-21 goaltenders in VHL history career-wise are Shesterkin and Zavragin. Among netminders with at least 10 games played, the former’s .951 SV% is first while the latter’s .944 SV% is second. Additionally, their MHL numbers weren’t very far off at all.
Right now, we’ll have to see how Zavragin does in the KHL—that will determine the kind of player he is. Shesterkin exploded for a .937 SV% there in 2016-17, which was his third season following his draft eligibility. Reaching those numbers within the next two seasons (including this one) would show just how much potential Zavragin has to dominate at the NHL level. He’ll need to prove himself at Russia’s highest stage, but it’s looking good so far. The development curve is very, very promising at this point.
Other Flyers Goaltenders Worth Noting
Zavragin is the best non-Kolosov goaltender in the Flyers’ system in my eyes, but Carson Bjarnason is also worth mentioning. The 19-year-old was selected by the Orange and Black in the second round of the 2023 NHL Draft, posting good numbers in the Western Hockey League (WHL). He had a .907 SV%, putting him ninth out of the 49 netminders who played in at least 10 games.
Related: Philadelphia Flyers’ Goalie Depth Bodes Well for Their Future Between the Pipes
In addition, NHLers Sam Ersson and Ivan Fedotov could have a bright future ahead of them. Ersson is 24, and he is the Flyers’ current starter—a vital campaign for him awaits in 2024-25, as he’ll have to show his worth. Fedotov is 27 but only has three games in North America to his name, as he is a long-time KHL veteran. He’s on a two-year contract with a lot to prove—he had a .921 SV% in the KHL throughout his tenure in the league.
Just because the Flyers have some promising players between the pipes does not mean losing Kolosov is anything but unfortunate. However, if the relationship between him and the team’s management cannot be repaired, there are solutions.
Stats courtesy of QuantHockey
