How Connor McMichael Bounces Back in First Season With the Blues

Connor McMichael is one of the many new faces joining the St. Louis Blues this season. After being dealt to St. Louis in a trade involving Jordan Kyrou, the 25-year-old forward will look to make an immediate impact in the Blues’ top six. If he can, he will also prove his 2024-25 season wasn’t a fluke.

McMichael’s Breakout Season in the Nation’s Capital

In 2024-25, McMichael was in his third full season with the Washington Capitals. After helping the team sneak into the playoffs by scoring 18 goals the prior season, McMichael hoped to contribute more offensively.

He certainly did that and then some. Playing in all 82 games, the Ontario native scored 26 goals and added 31 assists for 57 points. That placed him fifth on the team in goals. Behind McMichael and others (including the record-breaking season of Alex Ovechkin), the Capitals won the Metropolitan Division and were the top seed in the Eastern Conference. While the team was eliminated in the second round, there was plenty of reason for optimism in the Nation’s Capital. For McMichael, there was optimism that he was becoming a true NHL scorer.

Back to Earth

What goes up must come back down. That was true for the Capitals in many ways last season. For McMichael, his production dropped. He scored just 14 goals in 78 games, although he still recorded 32 assists for 46 points. The decline is worth noting, but several reasons suggest McMichael can return to his 26-goal production.

Shooting Percentage and Shots

Shooting percentage will be the biggest factor. During his 26-goal season, McMichael scored on 14.6% of shots. Last season, the number dipped to 9.9%. That difference alone says a lot about his decreased goal totals.

McMichael took fewer shots in 2025-26 than in 2024-25 (142 vs. 177). However, if he still scored on 14.6% of his shots last season, he would have scored 21 goals. It would have been short of 26, but it still would have given more evidence that he could be a regular 20-plus goal scorer. Simply converting the scoring chances he gets will go a long way toward returning to his 2024-25 form.

However, McMichael would benefit from shooting the puck more regularly.

Even-Strength Goals

McMichael’s breakout season was not a factor of success on the power play. Of his 26 goals, only four came with the man advantage. Last season, just two of his 14 came on the power play. This tells us the forward can generate offense at 5-on-5. He did not need open ice to score. He could create and cash in on chances simply by his skill.

Playing alongside Mason McTavish, who is also seeking a bounce-back season, should help McMichael generate more scoring chances at even strength. This duo may complement each other well.

The Positives

One aspect of McMichael’s game last season is positive. Despite his goal total declining, his playmaking ability remained. His assist total increased, albeit by only one. However, that doesn’t mean he suddenly stopped being a scorer. The goals dipped, but the ability did not.

The Blues aren’t trying to rebuild McMichael. He was still productive even as his goals dipped. Furthermore, he is entering his age 26 season. He is just now entering his prime. There is a realistic chance he can bounce back and not be a one-hit wonder.

This is something we can see in his development so far in his career. McMichael scored nine goals and 18 points in 68 games during his first extended NHL opportunity in 2021-22. After playing in just six games the next season, he returned with 18 goals and 33 points in 80 games in 2023-24, followed by his breakout season.

A Fresh Start

Joining a new organization allows McMichael to establish a different role and build chemistry with linemates who complement his offensive strengths. The Blues don’t need him to become their primary offensive weapon. Playing alongside players who can create space, move the puck, and force defenders to respect multiple scoring threats, McMichael should have opportunities to find open areas and use his shot.

He has never been especially dependent on power-play goals, but even a slight increase there could make reaching 26 much easier. Turning those two goals last season into four or five immediately closes part of the gap to 26.

The path back to 26 goals isn’t particularly complicated: shoot more, get back to dangerous areas, and trust the scoring ability he’s already shown at the NHL level.