Another season of failure forces the New York Islanders to take a look at everybody, including goaltender Ilya Sorokin. Last summer, when the Russian goaltender inked an eight-year, $66 million deal to remain with the team long-term – the last thing on everybody’s mind was a trade that could soon follow.
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However, Sorokin has been disappointing since signing the extension. His save percentage dipped to .910 in 47 regular season games – far below the stellar .924 and .925 he posted in 2021-22, and 2022-23. The 28-year-old appeared to lose confidence and could not help the Islanders in their five-game series loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Argument for a Trade
Now, there is an interesting debate to be had. Sorokin’s no-move clause (NMC) from the extension will kick in on July 1. If that happens, the Islanders cannot trade or send him down to the minors without his consent. So, if last season’s performance is a microcosm of what will come – the team is in big trouble. The contract won’t be flexible until 2028-29 when the NMC turns into a modified no-trade.
Of course, Sorokin could return to his previous elite form next season. But some would argue that over $8 million is too much cap space to allocate to a goaltender. If you take a look at recent Stanley Cup winners, most teams have had a starting goaltender that counts $6 million or less against the cap. The list includes Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues), Matt Murray, Marc Andre Fleury (Pittsburgh Penguins), Braden Holtby (Washington Capitals), and Darcy Kuemper (Colorado Avalanche).
The exception to the rule is Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who helped his team win two Cups since signing an eight-year extension that came with a $9.5 million average annual value in 2019.
Why a Trade Would Be a Mistake
While you don’t necessarily need a Hall of Fame goalie to win the Cup, it’s hard to imagine how the Islanders can be better off without him. If the alternative is turning to Semyon Varlamov, who counts just $2.75 million against the cap, and planning on starting him 60-plus games – good luck with that. The 36-year-old hasn’t appeared in more than 55 regular season games in nearly a decade. The Islanders will need a legitimate starter, which could cost them between $5 and $6 million.
And the other problem with trading Sorokin is how the Islanders are built. Unfortunately, president and general manager Lou Lamoriello hasn’t gotten ideal value out of several veterans signed to long-term extensions, from Anders Lee to Scott Mayfield. And outside of Mathew Barzal, the Islanders don’t have much offensive firepower to offer. Those are the reasons why the organization has won a combined three playoff games in the past three seasons.
In two of those postseason runs, Sorokin did his job with elite play. And in the last half-decade, he is tied for third among NHL goaltenders in save percentage that has appeared in at least 130 games, according to NHL statistics website QuantHockey. So there’s reason to believe he’ll bounce back based on his past. So potentially, the Islanders could be waving the white flag for a deep playoff run if Sorokin gets dealt.
Unless Lamoriello can get creative with using the $8.25 million of cap space, and use some of that to acquire a game-breaker like Mitch Marner, moving the netminder feels like a death wish. Anything short of replacing him with a superstar, which isn’t often available, won’t be enough. For example, getting rid of Sorokin for Pavel Buchnevich or a similar player, likely won’t get the Islanders anywhere.
The move should be to stick with Sorokin – but the core around him needs to be shaken up. Lamoriello will need to take calls on just about everybody not named Barzal, Sorokin, and Dobson. It makes sense to trade Brock Nelson for future assets and use the cap space to acquire a top-six scorer. Lamiorello should also look to move Jean-Gabriel Pageau or Anders Lee to potentially add another scorer and cost-efficient bottom six players to improve the dead-last penalty-kill unit.
Lamoriello will be back for at least another offseason, and it’s unlikely that the 82-year-old, who signed Sorokin to a long-term contract last summer, will exercise his get-out-of-jail-free card before the deal even begins. It’s time to retool the team and reload with fresh faces for 2024-25 with a mentally reset Sorokin. But the Islanders will still have several more weeks to decide on whether they want to trade the netminder or not.
