As the trade deadline approaches, the New York Islanders are in a tough position. Ideally, the front office would probably like to buy, but they aren’t in a playoff position currently. If the Islanders choose to sell, it could cash in some assets on center Brock Nelson.
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The biggest issue with the Islanders is it has spent so many assets in trying to win Lord Stanley over the past few years. This includes trading top prospect Aatu Räty and sacrificing several first-round picks. Now, it has a rock-bottom prospect pool, and it desperately needs to be replenished. The best way to do that? Sell to a buyer at the deadline that’s willing to pay a premium for an asset.
The Case for Nelson
While it may not be the most popular choice among Islanders fans, Nelson might be the best chance at getting a haul. For one, the Islanders have 10 players with no trade clauses. Nelson is one of those players, but it’s not a full no-trade, and he just can’t be traded to 16 teams of his choice, according to CapFriendly. Also, Nelson’s cap hit is $6 million for the rest of this year and next.
For a top-six center, who is coming off a career year, clubs could find great value in that. Not only will Nelson give a boost to playoff teams going for the Stanley Cup in 2024 – but he will give them a full season next year. So this isn’t just a typical two-month rental player. Also, if an interested party can’t afford to absorb Nelson’s $6 million cap hit, the Islanders can retain some salary in exchange for a sweetener to make the deal work.
Nelson, who is 32 years old, is on pace for 63 points this year, which would be the second-highest total of his NHL career. His value now is probably the highest it will ever be, and with the Islanders unlikely to be a contender for the Stanley Cup this year, it would make a lot of sense to trade Nelson.
It’s fair to say that stars, including Mathew Barzal, Ilya Sorokin, and Bo Horvat, aren’t going anywhere. Recently, all signed long-term contract extensions to remain Islanders.
What Could a Return on Nelson Look Like?
Currently, centers are in high demand, which could be great news for the Islanders if the organization decides to sell. Elias Lindholm, likewise the top center available on the market this year, got two prospects (Hunter Brzustewicz and Joni Jurmo), a first-round pick, and a conditional 4th round pick (both in the 2024 draft). And Sean Monahan managed to not only fetch a first-round pick in return but a conditional third-round pick as well in recent days.
While both players are a few years younger, they are both rentals. Nelson should at the very least be able to get back something similar to what Lindholm did. It’s important to note that the Calgary Flames were likely able to get as big of a return as it did for Lindholm because it was forced to absorb Andrei Kuzmenko’s $5.5 million cap hit.
But a better comparison might be the Matt Duchene trade from the Colorado Avalanche in a three-team deal that sent the Ontario native to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for two prospects at the time in Samuel Girard and Vladislav Kamenev, two NHL players (Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond), as well as a first, second and third-round pick. Duchene is an accurate comparable because he had two years left on his deal at $6 million and was a top-six center.
So, who knows what the Islanders can get if there is a bidding war for Nelson. But the Islanders might be able to add a significant piece or two to its prospect pool. Centers are quite valuable today, and the Islanders might be wise to sell Nelson at peak value. If not, the Islanders, at the very least, should look at trading Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has just 20 points in 49 games. While the 31-year-old center isn’t worth $5 million per season, the Islanders might be able to get something back if it retains 50 percent of his salary. Pageau has two more years left after the 2024 season on his current deal.
The Islanders can also sell some of its rentals, which include Matt Martin, Cal Clutterbuck, Mike Reilly, and Sebastian Aho. Perhaps the Islanders can get mid-round picks for some of these players – but more than likely 5th rounders and later. But time is running out between now and the March 8 deadline, and the Islanders must make the best decision for the organization going forward. However, if the Islanders string together a few wins after the All-Star break, that might be enough to allow the front office to buy without giving up first and second-round draft choices and top prospects.
