The 2024-25 NHL season is around the corner and despite the surprise late-summer movement around the league, the New York Islanders roster looks set and they are unlikely to make another offseason move. They return a lot of familiar faces, something fans have gotten used to in recent offseasons.
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It’s a cliche that players bet on themselves (not literally, as we learned firsthand from Shane Pinto) and look to bank on a big season. The Islanders have a few players with a lot to gain from a big season and at the same time, they have a lot to lose. This is particularly relevant to one of the motors of the forward unit.
Brock Nelson
There’s a wide range of how Brock Nelson’s season can go. What happens with him will determine where the Islanders stand by the end of the season and the outlook for the future of the franchise. That’s a lot to pin on one player yet Nelson is that significant to this roster.
If all goes right, Nelson’s leading the Islanders in goals and putting together another remarkable season. He’s scored 30 goals or more in each of the last three seasons and a 40-goal season will have the offense humming and him once again playing a big role in the top six. On top of that, a big season will prove that he belongs on Long Island for the long-term and the Islanders will have to make signing him in the 2025 offseason a priority.
His pending free agency leads to the worst-case scenario. If the Islanders struggle and Nelson plays poorly the team will want to trade him with the hope of finding a decent return at the deadline. The problem is, if he’s struggling, his trade value will plummet. It’s why the ideal time to trade him, if the Islanders wanted to do that, would be this offseason but this team is making a push and not rebuilding, at least not at the moment.
A realistic middle ground for Nelson is a slight regression but he still leads the second line. He’s aging gracefully but enters this season at 33 years old and he might hit the 30-goal mark but only by the end of the season. That’s still good enough for the Islanders to have a great second line, especially if he’s centering it.
Noah Dobson
The Islanders didn’t give Noah Dobson an extension this offseason. He signed a bridge deal in the 2022 offseason and will look for a long-term contract in the 2025 offseason. With no agreement heading into the season, this is a bet from all sides involved. It’s happened before where a player has a career-best season heading into free agency and it can happen again with Dobson, However, he’s a restricted free agent (RFA) so the stakes aren’t as high.
Dobson can take advantage and put together the best season of his career. If he’s a Norris Trophy candidate, playing great defense while also scoring 20 goals and adding 60 or more assists, the Islanders will be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Likewise, Dobson will demand top-tier defenseman money and the Islanders will have their hands tied.
Conversely, Dobson can take a step back, especially if he isn’t as active and aggressive in the offensive zone while playing aggressively on the defense end of the ice. That will give the Islanders an offseason advantage (for negotiations) but not a regular season one as it will leave them weak at both ends of the ice.
Anthony Duclair
Anthony Duclair finally has a place he can call home. After bouncing around, especially in recent seasons, he signed a four-year deal with the Islanders and he’ll look to become a cornerstone of the forward unit. This is his first season with the Islanders and one where he can prove his worth.
Playing on the top line, Duclair can be a great scorer who takes advantage of Mathew Barzal’s passing while also being a winger who can set up scoring chances for both Barzal and Bo Horvat. The other extreme is that he fails to find a role on the top line and in the forward unit altogether and the Islanders are left with another tough contract on their books, something they have no shortage of already.
This is the season where Duclair proves his worth and the hope is that he taps into that potential the eight other teams he previously played for were hoping to find. He has the talent and at 28, he’s in his prime. The question is if Declair puts it all together. If he does, the Islanders’ top six will be tough to stop.
Ilya Sorokin
Last season was an outlier, an oddity, an anomaly, or whatever term best describes the mess, at least that’s what Ilya Sorokin must prove this season. A lot went wrong in a terrible season for one of the best goaltenders in the game who is being paid like one. Now, he enters the 2024-25 season in need of a rebound.
Another bad season from Sorokin would sound the alarms for the Islanders. They gave him an eight-year extension in the 2023 offseason but they might have to find a way to move on from him and get out of that contract. Likewise, if Patrick Roy doesn’t see him as the starter, he won’t treat him like one, and as last season proved, the new head coach has no issue benching him for Semyon Varlamov.
The assumption is that Sorokin returns to form, especially with the defensive unit improving and the workload being lighter. If he does and looks like the 2022-23 version that was a Vezina Trophy finalist, the perception of the Islanders will change. Sorokin’s a goaltender the Islanders can lean on and they will if they are in position for a deep playoff run.
Other Islanders With a Lot to Gain & Lose
Kyle MacLean was a pleasant surprise as a prospect last season but the expectations are higher as he’s expected to be a regular on the fourth line. He can take advantage of the opportunity and by adding a scoring touch, give the Islanders some much-needed scoring depth.
Kyle Palmieri is in a similar boat as Nelson as he is a free agent after this season ends. For the veteran winger, this can be the season where he plays well to head into free agency on the right foot. The Islanders are pressed against the cap and have other skaters to take care of but a big season from Palmieri will have plenty of teams around the league interested in signing him.
Is there a player on the Islanders with a lot to gain or lose from this season? Let us know in the comments section below!
