The deadline for RFAs to elect salary arbitration is today at 5 pm EST. Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving mentioned a second buyout window while he was in Nashville for the NHL Draft, and hinted that no one should be surprised if goaltender Ilya Samsonov files for arbitration. While arbitration is not always the best process to go through with a player, most cases are never heard and simply filing and then settling an arbitration case opens up an opportunity for Toronto to do other business.
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If Samsonov files, it opens a second buyout window for Leafs. That window potentially offers them a solution to their Matt Murray problem.
What About a Matt Murray Trade?
As our own Andrew Forbes points out, a trade is a much bigger win for the Maple Leafs here. He talks about the financial hit both the Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will take if Murray is bought out and writes, “While it seems like a feasible route to go, and maybe it is for the Senators, the Maple Leafs will be looking to use every dollar available to them next season when both Auston Matthews and William Nylander are due for new contracts to kick in.” While a sound argument, it doesn’t sound like the Leafs intend to heed his advice.
Chris Johnston of NorthStar Bets says that trade discussions involving Murray are ongoing. That said, it seems unlikely with all of the goaltenders available that Murray would be more attractive of an option than someone like John Gibson or Connor Hellebuyck. Even at a highly-discounted rate (essentially free with a sweetener) there won’t be many, if any, takers for Murray’s contract.
Johnston notes the Maple Leafs’ backup plan if they fail to find a suitable deal is the second buyout window. He writes:
“They’re on the hunt for trade options, but they have a Plan B in their back pocket if something palatable fails to materialize. Teams that have a player go to salary arbitration gain a second buyout window following the hearing, and it appears likely that goaltender Ilya Samsonov will be taking Toronto to arb later this summer.”
When Could the Leafs Buy Out Murray?
According to PuckPedia, teams may receive an additional buyout window. They write,” If a team has a player go to arbitration and it is either settled or awarded, the team receives a new 48-hour buyout window beginning 3 days after the arbitration settlement or award.” It continues, “The only contracts that are eligible to be bought out in this window are for player with Cap Hits greater than $4M AND they were on the team’s roster at the last trade deadline.” Murray meets all the requirements necessary to be eligible within this window, as his $4.6 million cap hit and injury status during the trade deadline factor into the criteria.
Speculation has arisen regarding the potential placement of Murray on long-term injured reserve (LTIR), offering the Toronto Maple Leafs $4,687,500 of cap relief. However, it appears unlikely as Murray has been medically cleared. Not only that, but Murray’s particular contract allows the Leafs to take advantage of a reasonably manageable buyout scenario where the biggest savings come this season when the cap ceiling is the lowest.
With capologist Brandon Pridham on the case and working to find Treliving the best options, it sounds like a buyout is a direction the Leafs are leaning. As the offseason progresses, the Maple Leafs will continue exploring trade options but they remain prepared to benefit from the salary arbitration process with Samsonov. Ultimately, the team’s goal is to find the most effective and efficient solution while maintaining a competitive roster for the upcoming season.
It’s not ideal and it comes with a cost, but navigating the salary cap landscape is a delicate task for NHL teams, and for the Maple Leafs, who just added a few key pieces in free agency, the trouble might be worth the reward.
