The sense in Toronto is that GM Kyle Dubas didn’t make his final move of the NHL Trade Deadline on Friday night when he acquired Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from the St. Louis Blues. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic writes, “My sense is the Leafs will now try to find a piece for the blue line, and they’ve still got lots of time to work on that ahead of March 3.” Meanwhile, Darren Dreger of TSN notes, “Leafland is buzzing, as it should be. Sense is, Dubas isn’t done, which emphasizes an all-in approach. Kerfoot? Engvall? Holl? Kampf? What collateral does Toronto use for another move?”
The fact that it cost Dubas four draft picks and he didn’t already have a stocked-full cupboard of picks to deal means he’s got even fewer now. What can he trade if he’s going to acquire the pieces he needs to round out his roster and address his blue line?
Dubas Provided Reasons For Giving Up Picks
When Dubas spoke with the media on Saturday he admitted that he’s got concerns when it comes to how much draft capital he’s given up to acquire the pieces he thinks he needs to compete this season. He said that he preferred to give up the picks and the “mystery box” aspect of dealing draft picks versus moving prospects or players that he knew and was familiar with.
That’s all well and good, but at some point, if the Maple Leafs want to keep rounding out their roster and they’ve got their sights set on other potential deadline acquisitions, they’ll need to move something other than draft picks. The issue for Dubas now is that draft picks and/or prospects are what most teams are going to covet. That means he’ll need to find another way to get some.
Should he not be able to, Dubas’ lack of desire to move his prospects and his unwillingness to trade players off of his roster that he likes means he’ll only be trading players he doesn’t have a passion for or prospects he doesn’t see as part of the team’s long-term future. What teams are going to pick up Dubas’ scraps? That’s an interesting question that will need answering over the next two weeks.
Dubas Doesn’t Have Much In the Way of Value to Trade
With only his fifth and sixth-round picks left in the upcoming 2023 NHL Draft and without a second or third-rounder in next year’s draft, he’s got the 2024 first-round pick (which he’s unlikely to move) and depth picks in 2024 he can dangle out there as trade bait. Will anyone bite?
It seems unlikely to imagine that teams like Chicago are going to move Jake McCabe for a fifth-rounder in 2023 and fourth in 2024. Columbus certainly won’t consider moving Vladislav Gavirkov for anything near the ballpark of what Toronto has left to bargain with. The same goes for Jakob Chychrun out of Arizona or Colton Parayko out of St. Louis, all of whom will fetch first-round picks from someone. Even Luke Schenn will potentially cost more than Dubas can afford if the rumored number of teams interested in Schenn is accurate.
At some point, Dubas either has to aim lower with who he acquires or he has to move prospects teams like or players that can secure his team draft picks he no longer has.
Who Would Dubas Trade?
Dreger points out Alex Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall, Justin Holl, and David Kampf as potential pieces. Again, those names are well and good but which teams are looking to add salary or players the Leafs don’t want? If Dubas is dealing with non-playoff teams, those names might not pique a rival GM’s interest, especially if all of them are going to test free agency this summer. He’ll have to move these players to playoff contenders.
Kerfoot is a pending UFA and he could go, but that would only be to a team that could use him for a playoff run. Said team is not giving up a playoff-quality asset to add Kerfoot when they could use the player they’re giving away. That means moving Kerfoot, getting a pick, then going after someone on another team. In making these moves, is Dubas limited to moving Kerfoot to a non-division rival? Needless to say, this isn’t as easy as it sounds.
The same goes for Pierre Engvall who is fairly one-dimensional and Dubas would need to find a team that feels they are lacking that one dimension. Can Engvall fetch enough that Dubas can flip it with what he has to add a significant piece on the back end? That remains to be seen.
Kampf might be interesting as a pending UFA, but the Leafs could use him, and it’s likely he alone won’t get the team the piece on their blue line he needs.
At the end of the day, Dubas is going to have to get extremely creative and he’s going to have to make multiple moves just to complete one more deal. And, if he’s not willing to move a player like Matthew Knies, does he have the assets to land a difference-maker?
