The Metropolitan Division looked to be on a downward trend heading into the season, but boy was I wrong about that. After last night’s (Dec. 4) slate of games, just five points separate the first-place Washington Capitals and eighth-place Columbus Blue Jackets. It will likely be a dog fight to the end…or will it?
Eventually, there will be some separation because these teams have to play each other. There are also a few teams that are overperforming their underlying metrics, so maybe don’t read too much into the standings just yet.
Hurricanes & Capitals: The Class of the Metro
Two teams are the clear-cut best teams in the Metro: the Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes. The Capitals aren’t going to repeat the season they had a year ago, but their underlying numbers, in some regards, are improved from what they were during the 2024-25 campaign.
That’s specifically true at five-on-five, where the Capitals have an expected goals share (xG%) of 53.39 percent. They’ve been one of the best offensive teams in the NHL at that game state, averaging 3.07 expected goals per 60 minutes. Alex Ovechkin is cooking after a slow start to the season, and Tom Wilson has been red-hot lately.
The area where the Capitals need to improve is on special teams. They have one of the worst power plays in the NHL and one of the worst penalty kills. They’ve killed just 72.9 percent of the power plays they’ve faced, and they’ve only converted 17.9 percent of their man advantages. That could cost them some games that they deserve to win, so it’s something they have to figure out.
Related: Devils News & Rumors: Quinn & Jack Hughes, Yegorov Shines at MSG
Still, the Capitals are surely one of the three best teams in the Metro, and more likely among the two best. The Hurricanes are the one team in the division that has performed to preseason expectations. As they have been most seasons, they’ve been a force at five-on-five, totaling an xG% of 57.23, ranked second to the Colorado Avalanche.
The Hurricanes may need to upgrade their center depth for the stretch run, but they’re still the favorites to win the Metro. There’s a clear top two in the division as of this writing, but who else has the goods to challenge these teams for automatic playoff berths?
The Murky Middle of the Metro
The Metro gets much murkier after the Capitals and Hurricanes. The New Jersey Devils should be in the same conversation as the Hurricanes and Capitals, but their poorly constructed roster is showing in Jack Hughes’ absence. They’re 12-4-1 with him in the lineup, but 4-6-0 since he suffered a non-hockey injury over two weeks ago.
If the Devils can tread water until Hughes returns to action in a few weeks, they should make the playoffs. But they’re not without some concerns. They have an xG% of 48.87, ranked 20th in the NHL. That should improve once Hughes and Brett Pesce return, but bolstering their depth is a must, and it needs to happen soon.
As we’ll see with the rest of the Metro, most of the remaining teams have similar five-on-five numbers to the Devils. The Pittsburgh Penguins keep finding ways to win, but their xG% of 48.94 is nearly identical to the Devils. Most pundits, myself included, had the Penguins pegged for last place in the Metro. Maybe they end up there in the end, given how tight the division is, but they keep defying the odds for now.
Bunched up with the Devils and Penguins are the New York Islanders, whose xG% of 47.88 ranks 25th in the NHL. They just handed the Colorado Avalanche only their second regulation loss of the season, but can they hang around long enough to make the playoff race interesting?
Bunched up with the Islanders are the Philadelphia Flyers, whose xG% of 47.92 ranks 23rd in the NHL. If there’s a team that’s overperformed the most in the Metro, it’s probably the Flyers. They generate just 2.32 expected goals per 60 minutes, so offense is an issue, but they’ve gotten by with stellar goaltending from Dan Vladar. I’m not counting them out, but they could fall off in time.
Then there’s the eighth-place Blue Jackets, who are break-even in expected goals. I like where the franchise is headed. They fell just two points short of a playoff spot last season, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to make the jump. They’re leaky defensively, and they can’t always outscore their problems.
If there’s one team in this group that’s underperforming its numbers, it’s the New York Rangers. They have a 51.43 xG%, ranked 11th in the NHL, though that has slipped from being top five just two to three weeks ago. Still, they play well at five-on-five. The question with them is, do they have enough scoring punch? That’s been a problem through the first two months of the season, especially since J.T. Miller has been underperforming.
Will Strength of Schedule Sort Everyone Out?
Strength of schedule is just a snapshot in time, much like playoff probabilities. But with the division being so tight, strength of schedule may matter quite a bit. Using Tankathon and Power Rankings Guru’s data, let’s take a look at strength of schedule for the eight Metro teams.
One thing working in the Devils’ favor is that they have the eighth-easiest (Tankathon) and 14th-easiest remaining schedule (Power Rankings Guru). If they tread water without Hughes, they should be in a position to make a run when it matters most.
The only other team in the Metro with a relatively easy remaining schedule is the Islanders; fifth-easiest (Tankathon) and 13th (Power Rankings Guru). I don’t love how they play at five-on-five, and there are no gimmes in the NHL, but they and the Devils have the most favorable schedules the rest of the way.
As for the rest of the Metro, it’ll be difficult. The Flyers have the third-hardest remaining schedule, the Penguins fifth, the Rangers sixth, and the Blue Jackets seventh (via Tankathon). The Hurricanes and Capitals have the 18th and 19th-easiest remaining schedules, but they’re good enough that I don’t think it’ll matter much.
It’s not much easier for the Penguins, Blue Jackets, Rangers, and Flyers in Power Ranking Guru’s data, either. The Penguins have the third most difficult remaining schedule, the Blue Jackets fourth, the Flyers sixth, and the Rangers eighth. Meanwhile, the Capitals and Hurricanes are among the ten easiest remaining schedules.
That could determine who separates who from who in the Metro. Will teams with middling five-on-five numbers, like the Penguins, Flyers and Blue Jackets, succumb to the difficulty of their schedules? Or will they continue to defy the odds?
That’s because when you look at the Metro, there might not be as many good teams as the standings suggest. Sure, it’s better than most everyone thought before the season started. But teams under the Capitals and Hurricanes may be overperforming because of softer schedules to begin the season, and that should eventually sort itself out.
Advanced stats from MoneyPuck
