The fourth Thursday of every November has become regarded as the make-it-or-break-it point of an NHL season.
That’s because the overwhelming majority of teams that occupy a postseason spot in the standings on American Thanksgiving go on to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Since the NHL switched to its current wild-card format in 2013-14, 77% of teams in playoff position on U.S. Turkey Day have gone on to qualify for the postseason tournament, according to ESPN Research. Those figures echo data from NHL Stats, which found that from 2005-06 to 2021-22, 76.3 percent of the teams that were in a postseason position by U.S. Thanksgiving made the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But while history suggests that not even a quarter of the teams that sit below the playoff cutline at this time of year will rally to make the postseason, the Edmonton Oilers operate with their own set of numbers.
Oilers Currently Not in Playoff Spot
When Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and the rest of the Oilers sat down for dinner on Thursday (Nov. 27), they found themselves sitting two points out of a playoff position: The second wild-card spot in the Western Conference is currently held by the Utah Mammoth, who have 27 points from a record of 12-9-3; With a record of 10-10-5, the Oilers have 25 points.
This marks the fourth straight year that the Oilers are not in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving: on this day in 2023, the Oilers were tied in points for the second wild-card, but lost the tiebreakers, leaving them technically out of a playoff position; Two years ago, Edmonton was a whopping 10 points out of a wild-card spot on U.S. Turkey Day. Last season, the Oilers were one point back of the second wild-card on Nov. 28, 2024.
In all three instances, the Oilers not only climbed up the standings to punch their ticket to the playoffs, but they went on to win at least one playoff round. And, of course, Edmonton ultimately reached the Stanley Cup Final in both 2024 and 2025.
As it turns out, Edmonton’s NHL team has made a habit of defying the American Thanksgiving postseason odds.
Oilers Far Exceed League Average
Since joining the NHL in 1979, the Oilers have been part of 41 full-length seasons (the NHL played shortened schedules in 1994-95, 2012-13, 2019-20 and 2020-21, and 2004-05 was cancelled).
Excluding the shortened seasons, Edmonton has been in a playoff position at US Thanksgiving 21 times. Of those 21 instances, the Oilers have gone to make the playoffs 16 times, for a rate of 76.2%, which is almost identical to the league average.
But of the 20 times the Oilers have not been in a playoff spot on Turkey Day, they have rallied to make the postseason eight times, for a rate of 40%, which far exceeds the NHL-wide average.
In addition to their Thanksgiving turnarounds of the last three years, the Oilers also reached the playoffs after being outside of a postseason spot on the fourth Thursday of November in 1979-80, 1990-91, 1991-92, 1997-98, and 1999-00. So, can Edmonton do it again this year?
Next Several Games are Critical for Oilers
Over the last three years, the Oilers have surged out of the Thanksgiving break and maintained an elevated level of play for the remainder of the season as they climbed the standings.
Each time, Edmonton’s turnaround has been immediate: In their first eight games following American Thanksgiving, the Oilers went 6-2-0 in 2022, 8-0-0 in 2023, and 7-1-0 last year.
The urgency is even greater this year, given that the Oilers are a bit further into their schedule than usual. Edmonton has already played 25 games, compared to 18, 20 and 22 games at the Thanksgiving break in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Edmonton’s upcoming schedule is certainly favourable. Over their next eight games, the Oilers will play five times at home and five times against teams currently not in a playoff position.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Oilers’ 8-3 Loss to Stars
After getting absolutely embarrassed on home ice in their last game, losing 8-3 to the Dallas Stars at Rogers Place on Tuesday (Nov. 25), the Oilers have had a few days to look at themselves in the mirror and figure out what kind of team they want to be part of.
Yes, the Oilers have been in this spot before. And if they’ve learned anything from the past, it should be apparent in their effort when they begin their post-Thanksgiving schedule on Saturday (Nov. 29) with a road game against the Seattle Kraken.
