After 20 games, the Ottawa Senators sit tied for second place in the Atlantic Division with 24 points and a points percentage (PTS%) of .600. Their record of 11-7-2 at the quarter mark is a vast improvement over their disappointing 8-11-1 record after the first 20 games in 2024-25.
For many seasons, the Senators had played themselves out of postseason contention by American Thanksgiving, but not this year. Can Senators fans finally make like Pumbaa the Warthog in The Lion King and start singing Hakuna Matata?
Unfortunately, it’s too early to break out into song. The Atlantic Division is arguably the most competitive in the NHL, with only six points separating the division-leading Detroit Red Wings from the seventh-place Toronto Maple Leafs. If the Senators fall into a slump, even briefly, they could easily slide down the standings. Here’s a look at what’s working for the Senators this season and what remains concerning.
Senators’ Offence – Doubts Linger
On the surface, the Senators may have solved their goal-scoring problem. Much was written last season about their anaemic goal production, ranked 18th in the league and averaging 2.96 goals per game. That’s not the case this season with the Senators ranked 6th in the NHL with an average of 3.35 goals per game. With a power play percentage (PP%) of 23.81 vs. the league average of 20.56, the Senators rank 10th. Not only that, but their point production is fairly evenly spread across their top three lines.
However, a look at the team’s advanced metrics suggests the Senators’ offence still isn’t dangerous enough. After 20 games, they have an xGF (expected goals for) of 37.3 – significantly below the league average of 42.4. They’ve had 396 scoring chances – also well below the league average of 433. This points to problems in the way the team is creating offence – they’re just not getting enough dangerous shots. They’ve notched 136 high-danger scoring chances to this point – well below the league average of 153.
That’s not surprising since, overall, they are taking too many shots from the perimeter. Too many harmless point shots and shots taken without traffic in front of the net mean far too few high-danger scoring chances. They also have fewer controlled offensive zone entries and poor puck cycling. The team often seems unable to force defensive zone breakdowns.
A low xGF can often mean that a team’s top stars aren’t creating enough elite chances. In Ottawa’s case, that’s understandable given that captain Brady Tkachuk will be out of the lineup all season. He is a virtuoso at creating the kind of havoc in front of the net that results in goals. Still, the team’s top-five goal-scorers – Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto, Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson and Michael Amadio all have an xGF lower than their actual goals.
Still, there’s reason for optimism. An xGF higher than actual goals-for often means that a player is getting good scoring chances, but they’re just not finishing. If those players keep on doing what they’ve been doing, goals will come.
The Senators Are Allowing Too Many Goals in 2025-26
As respectable as the Senators’ goal scoring has been this season, it is offset by the goals they allow. With 67 goals against, they rank 22nd in the NHL. In fact, they’ve allowed as many goals as they’ve scored. To put that into perspective, the Senators ranked 13th in the league in goals-against last season, with a goal-differential ranked 14th.
Goal differential is a key indicator for coaches. Ask former Senators bench boss Paul MacLean, who explained in an NHL.com article that, “To turn your season around, to get past a bad goal differential, that’s a tough go. Those are telling stats, and it might be only 20 games, but they tell you how you are playing in your overall game and the 5-on-5.”
The Senators’ goals against stats say a lot about two aspects of their game that are worrisome – struggles in goal and a dismal penalty kill. Starting goalie Linus Ullmark hasn’t been good enough over his 15 starts this season, registering a save percentage (SV%) of .877 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.01. By those numbers, he’s been a below-average NHL goalie. His understudy, Leevi Merilianen, has numbers that are just as underwhelming. In a nutshell, the Senators need better goaltending. If they don’t get it soon, their playoff push will steadily become more difficult.
Despite their mediocre performance to this point in the season, the president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios is doubling down on his puck-stopping duo. At a Nov. 10 presser, he left no doubts, saying, “I believe in Linus, the team believes in Linus. I think if you look at goaltending around the league, some of the top goaltenders go through stretches where they’re not getting the results that they want.”
Related: Senators’ Linus Ullmark Should Silence His Critics With Saves Not Words
Yet, more concerning than their goaltending is their penalty kill (PK). The Senators’ penalty kill percentage (PK%) after 20 games is the second-worst in the NHL, at 69.09%. Last season, it was 77.4%, good for 19th in the league. The Senators have allowed 17 power-play goals. The NHL average is 13.
Problems with the PK appeared at the beginning of the campaign, and so far, the Senators haven’t been able to fix them. The coaching staff will have to come up with answers soon. A smothering PK is the hallmark of many Stanley Cup champions, and the Senators don’t have anything close.
Senators’ Defence Corps Is Top Notch
The team’s defence is stronger this season than it’s been in years. They now have three solid defence pairings cruising the blue line, with Jake Sanderson leading the way. As The Hockey Writers’ Mike Fink noted in a recent article, “Sanderson’s emergence as the number one defenceman has allowed Chabot, who is typically the workhorse, to play with less ice time and more quality. With Nick Jensen, Tyler Kleven, and the savvy addition of Jordan Spence playing the second and third pair, the Senators to have a defence that makes them a juggernaut this season.”
In fact, some argue the Senators have one of the league’s best defences according to shot quality against. The Hockey Writers ranked Ottawa’s defence sixth in the NHL this season. If all that weren’t encouraging enough, Ottawa’s D-corps can also score. Among the top 10 point-getters on the team are three defensemen – Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub and Sanderson.
Still, Kleven is struggling with a minus-7 and just one point to show for his efforts over 18 games. Jensen has also had problems, with five points in 20 games and a minus-5 rating. Jensen’s struggles can be excused, at least for now, after undergoing offseason hip surgery and an uneven recovery.
Ottawa Senators Are Developing a Character
Too often in recent seasons, the Senators, including management, seemed content with moral victories born of trying hard and coming close. After 18 months with head coach Travis Green in charge, that’s no longer acceptable. He, like the fans, are demanding the real McCoy – success on the scoresheet.
Staios seems happy with what he’s seen of his new bench boss, explaining, “We set out to change a culture and an environment. He’s held to a high bar of accountability. He’s got a great ability to communicate with his players. He’s open, he’s honest, and he’s firm… he’s started to develop an identity to the team, and a chemistry to the team… I think he’s done a very good job.”
Look Ahead for the Senators
It’s said that, eventually, you are what the statistics say you are. At the quarter point of the season, the numbers say the Senators are a playoff contender. Fans can take comfort in a study showing that 76.6% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving go on to reach the postseason.
Still, there’s plenty of time for the team to fall off the pace. Optimism at the quarter mark must be tempered. Whether the Senators make the postseason will depend on many things, but the two that stand out depend on a drastic improvement to their PK and more stable goaltending.
