Since getting drafted in the third round of the 2013 draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins, Jake Guentzel has made himself a household name in the city and has built quite the career. At the end of the 2023-24 season, he finds himself as an unrestricted free agent, and there has been quite a bit of rumors and speculation over what could happen with the 29-year-old forward.
A Quick Glance at Guentzel’s Career to This Point
After getting drafted in 2013, Guentzel worked his way to the NHL after spending three seasons with the University of Nebraska-Omaha and then making the jump to professional hockey with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins for two seasons. He eventually made his NHL debut on Nov. 21, 2016, and scored twice in his debut. The call-up marked the start of Guentzel’s eight-season career to date with the Penguins.
Over the last eight seasons, Guentzel has turned himself into one of the Penguins’ most consistent players statistically when healthy. He has reached 20 or more goals, 20 or more assists, and 40 or more points in every full season he has played from the 2017-18 to 2023-24 seasons. He has reached that mark this season already, having already topped 20 goals, 27 assists, and 47 points in 44 games played. He has created one of the top one-two punches in the league as well with Sidney Crosby.
An Uncertain Future
With his pending free agency as an unrestricted free agent (UFA), there has been much speculation on what could end up happening with Guentzel this season. With the way that he has been able to produce yet again this season, he has earned himself a hefty contract extension from the Penguins. But the team’s new general manager, Kyle Dubas, has not let his hand be fully shown as to what he is thinking or planning on doing. At this stage of the season, there seem to be a couple of different options: trade Guentzel for as much of a return as possible, get an extension worked out with him, or wait until the end of the season and roll the dice.
Trade Guentzel
Trading Jake Guentzel by the trade deadline comes on March 8 would most likely mean that Dubas has determined that the team is not in contention for a playoff spot and is going to head toward a rebuild while still holding onto their veterans who are still under contract (Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Erik Karlsson). While this would signal a new direction for the team, it would not necessarily be the worst option in the world if there are no true aspirations or plans to re-sign Guentzel.
The Penguins currently boast one of the league’s worst farm systems, ranking 27th in our THW mid-season update. With Owen Pickering and Brayden Yager, who both rank in the THW mid-season top-100 prospects, headlining the system, the organization very well use some added help in their system. Trading Guentzel could very easily do this, even if it does not end up with them landing a team’s “number one” prospect.
Along with the possibility of adding a prospect or two comes the draft capital that the team could get in return in a trade, including Guentzel. With a few moves over the last couple of offseasons, the organization could very well be lacking their first-round pick in the 2024 draft, thanks to the Erik Karlsson trade. In the trade, the Penguins sent a conditional first-round pick to the San Jose Sharks that would get transferred to them if it falls outside of the top ten of the draft. Along with possibly being without their first-round pick is the fact that they will be short a third-round pick this year due to the Reilly Smith trade with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Related: Penguins Won Erik Karlsson Blockbuster Trade
Being able to add some draft picks to their stash would set the Penguins up for a chance to further build for the future, as they have Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, and Kris Letang on the back nine of their careers.
Re-Sign Guentzel
This option would most certainly make Penguins fans the happiest out of the options that there are. While Guentzel has not been the player that Steven Stamkos (pending UFA this offseason) has been for the Tampa Bay Lightning, he has become a fan favorite in Pittsburgh, and it would not feel right to see him in a different jersey next season. Hammering out an extension before Guentzel hits the open market would eliminate the risk of worry from both the organization and the fans, but it would come at a cost.
A comparable contract for Guentzel is the contract that Bo Horvat signed with the New York Islanders after getting traded to them from the Vancouver Canucks. Horvat has not matched up to Guentzel statistically over the last few seasons but is close to the same age as Guentzel (Horvat is 28, Guentzel is 29) and signed an eight-year, $68 million contract. The Penguins may be reluctant to go as long as the Islanders did term-wise, but the amount is very comparable for a player who has been rock solid for the team when he has been able to suit up.
Re-signing Guentzel would give the Penguins at least one player who will be around for the long haul and could carry the torch when players like Crosby and Malkin do decide to hang up their skates.
Roll the Dice in the Offseason
Obviously the riskiest option of the three, Dubas could wait until the offseason and let Guentzel test the open market. With the team having roughly $18 million in cap space, they also have six UFAs (Jeff Carter, Jansen Harkins, Colin White, Chad Ruhwedel, Ryan Shea, and Alex Nedeljkovic), they have plenty of spots to fill in their lineup as well as looking to bring in more talent if they decide to continue to make a push with the core that they have. If they were to re-sign Guentzel to a contract comparable to Horvat’s, they would be looking at paying him in the $8.5-9 million range and eating up close to half of their cap space.
Rolling the dice runs the risk of Guentzel finding a new home, as he will most likely have multiple teams that are interested in adding him and losing a key piece to their team over the last eight seasons.
Penguins and Guentzel Could Be at a Crossroads
With the trade deadline just over a month-plus away, the next few weeks could be very telling as to what the future holds for the relationship between the Penguins and Guentzel. It is one of the biggest things for Penguins fans to keep an eye on as the season rolls on.
