Projecting Blue Jackets’ Defensemen Stats for 2026-27

Part two of the Summer prediction series is here, and today will cover defensemen for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season. Following a tumultuous offseason for the defensemen where Zach Werenski was rumored to want out of Columbus, we can now look ahead and predict for who the six starters are going to be, and what their statistics may look like this season.

Expecting the Blue Jackets to run the same groups of defensemen from a season ago, when healthy, they will return the best top line defensive pairing in the league based upon wins above replacement (WAR), in Werenski and Damon Severson.

They led the league in combined WAR for defensive pairings with 7.05 wins above replacement. Almost two points higher than the next closest pairing. Severson and Werenski really got into a groove at the end of the season after playing with each other and getting comfortable on the ice.

From there, they will need a big step up for this season from other defensemen to get the desired outcome, franchise wide, of getting back into the playoffs and competing for a Stanley Cup. Here are the projections for the top-six defensemen stats for the year ahead.

Zach Werenski

The undoubted best player on this team has to yet again do what he did this past season if the Blue Jackets want any chance to make it back in the playoffs, but this year might have multiple meanings to a player like Werenski.

He is coming off the heels of an offseason where he was nearly traded to the Dallas Stars, he made his claim that he wants to be in Columbus long term, with a stipulation, he wants to win now. He has been a member of the Blue Jackets since 2016-17. He has made the playoffs just four times since his career started.

So, if they intend on keeping their best player, they need to start winning and proving how serious they are about competing for a Stanley Cup. It is time to invest in your best player, in the prime of his career.

Zach Werenski has won the 2026 Norris Trophy. #CBJ pic.twitter.com/fnar55B0yr

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) June 2, 2026

As a look back to a year ago, Werenski’s stat line in 75 games was, 22 goals, 59 assists for 81 points, and a +7, logging just over 26:30 average time on ice (ATOI) each night. He was the most dominant player on the ice, and rightfully deserved the Norris Trophy for best defender in the league.

Looking ahead to this season, what would the expectations be for him this year? He has to have the same, or at least very similar impact offensively, and hopefully his numbers can inflate a little bit with staying healthier and playing more games.

2026-27 Season Projection: 25 goals, 65 assists, 90 points, +14 rating, 27:15 ATOI

Denton Mateychuk

Another player who is going to need to take another step forward for the team this season is Denton Mateychuk. He will need to again be a driving force for the offense, and on the power play, but in transition offense as well.

His ability to share the puck all over the ice, and to make stretch passes from behind his own blue line, as well as to have the vision as a puck carrying defenseman to step up in plays and create offense makes Columbus harder to defend on the ice across the board.

For Mateychuk to take another step forward the Blue Jackets need to see him step up defensively, as well as step up his ability to shot create on his own. His defense will need to be developed for him to continue finding larger ice time under coach Rick Bowness, who harps on his defensive structure.

He was +12 when on the ice last season for the team averaging 19:11 TOI in 75 games. He had 13 goals, 18 assists, for 31 points, and had a shot percentage of 14.8%, meaning he was deadly accurate last season when he did shoot the puck.

The biggest factor for him will be locking down defensively. Last season, he was called for only four penalties all season, which made him the least penalized defender in the league with a minimum of 50 games.

If he can continue to take steps defensively, and continues to insert himself in the play offensively the sky is genuinely the limit for him. However, he has to take that next step.

2026-27 Season Projection: 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points, +9 rating, 21:15 ATOI

Damon Severson

Severson on the top pairing defensively worked well for the Blue Jackets, as playing with Werenski looked to almost simplify the game on the ice for him. He was rated one of the better defensive defenseman in the league last season, which is a great compliment to the offensive surplus his linemate Werenski has to offer.

Severson didn’t play in the final 10 games of the season due to a shoulder injury that he had surgery on to repair, but he should be ready to go by the start of training camp for the 2026-27 season.

He will be a critical piece of the puzzle for the Bowness’ team this season, because if he is again able to be a great compliment to the reigning Norris Trophy winner, the Blue Jackets will have a lock down defenseman running on their top pairing, giving them much more balance on the blue line.

Severson is not as much a threat offensively as his two aforementioned teammates, but he does have a little offensive element to his game as a right-shot defenseman. Playing with Werenski as well will allow Severson to play in a lot more space, and be able to get more open looks.

If he can play a full season he will set himself up well to push for the a little under a half a point per game. Severson’s biggest focus statistically will be to stay in the plus while on the ice, and to eat up minutes for his squad this season.

2026-27 Season Projection: 7 goals, 24 assists, 31 points, +12 rating, 23:45 ATOI

Ivan Provorov

The final crucial piece to the Blue Jackets top four defensemen is Ivan Provorov, the ironman. He has played in all 82 games of the season seven times in his 10 year career, a true reliable structure on the back end.

Provorov has never been known for his offense, but the bruising Russian has great open ice vision with the puck and can consistently find an open teammate with a breakout pass. It is also never a bad thing to have too many puck-carrying defensemen, and people willing and comfortable to bring the puck up the ice.

He and Mateychuk really started to find their way, and created a nice spark offensively from the point when the team would get stunted offensively. One thing Provorov did a really good job of was finding a way to frequently get his shot through. Even in traffic, forcing rebounds allows opportunities for the forwards in front.

Provorov did put together a decent season as he was incorporated in every phase of each game, including power play, penalty kill, and the 3-on-3 overtime as well. He is a crucial piece to this team, and the Blue Jackets are hoping for another season with great health.

2026-27 Season Projection: 11 goals, 22 assists, 33 points, +10 rating, 24:45 ATOI

Dante Fabbro

This is where the Blue Jackets have to find a way to get more out of the guys at the bottom of their lineup. With a solid top four defensemen, they need to find a way for the final pairing to play well enough to not collapse on the ice, like we have seen so much recently.

Last year for a large majority of the season the third pairing proved to be a difference maker in a lot of games with Dante Fabbro having a tough time keeping things positive on the ice. He ended last season with a -16 rating while on the ice, and that was indicative of this teams performance most nights. They will need to play much closer to even for the Blue Jackets to be close as a team.

They had a good top four, but the bottom pairing failed to hold it together and it proved costly. So, going into this season what do they need this bottom pairing to bring to the table to be most effective?

They have to be more physical, an element the top two pairings struggle to bring into each game. The top four defensemen are much more finesse and play in space, but Fabbro and his partner Erik Gudbranson need to go into the nitty gritty and play through and into contact.

2026-27 Season Projection: 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points, -5 rating, 15:00 ATOI

Erik Gudbranson

The biggest reason why Gudbranson was brought back this season was to be the physical shot-blocking presence the team doesn’t really have on the blue line apart from him. He also is a leader on this team, and I think he is a resource for whoever the next captain is, likely Werenski, to lean on in that locker room.

Gudbranson struggled to stay healthy last season, which really tanked where he was headed statistically. While he was often injured, he was a +6 rating through 37 games, with just one goal and two assists, but as mentioned earlier, the production is not how he will be measured.

If he can continue to be a positive factor when they are on the ice, it bodes well for Columbus knowing he will stay structurally sound defensively for them as well. He fits the exact style of play coach Bowness wants to play with in Columbus.

The #CBJ signed Erik Gudbranson to a 1 year $1.75M cap hit deal

Deal is all salary and does not contain any trade protection

Rep'd by Patrick Morris @TheHockeyAgency https://t.co/qwhJgnhcG6

— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) July 2, 2026

With Gudbranson signing just a simple one year deal, it looks like from the outside the Blue Jackets believe there will either be someone waiting in the wings, like a Jackson Smith, at the end of the season, or they believe they can’t commit to his injury concerns long term again.

The last deal he signed was a 4×4 contract, four years, and $4 million per year, but as that expired this offseason, he decided to re-sign and come back to Columbus for another run. If he can stay healthy that contract could be an absolute steal one year from now. He needs to play a full season for it to be worth another investment.

2026-27 Season Projection: 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points, +1 rating, 16:20 ATOI

Defensemen Wrap-Up

Overall, the Blue Jackets have a really strong group of defensemen, and this could be the strength of their team, especially if their best players continue to elevate their game to the next level. However, their lowest lows cannot overshadow the highest highs, like much of last season.

Late game collapses became almost a staple of this team, and they have to find a way to eliminate that from their minds, and set their minds to consistently finishing shifts and finishing games.

If their defensemen can play up to the standard set by Bowness, this team will be set up for success. The best teams handle the backend first, and from there take the offensive end to another level. The Blue Jackets have seemingly figured out their core defensively, now they just need to keep building.

The next article in the summer series will be on the forwards, and predictions for their season upcoming. Look for that article coming out mid week before the month turns over, and hockey season gets closer!