In a season that has begun so promisingly, the New York Rangers have suddenly arrived at an inflection point – one that could derail the early gains the team has made in 2023-24.
Alarmist, especially after a very encouraging win in their latest outing? Not at all. The Blueshirts have never taken Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Adam Fox for granted since he burst onto the scene in 2019-20. Yet the next month carries with it the frightening prospect that the Rangers could come to find out that Fox was even more valuable to them than they thought.
That’s because Fox has been a metronome on Broadway, not only consistent in his brilliantly effective play but in his availability. The 25-year-old missed all of five games in his first four seasons, providing his team with the elite basket of skills that makes him one of the best in the world at his position essentially every night.
Fox will now at least double his career total of missed games following the bombshell news that he was placed on long-term injured reserve Nov. 3 after a questionable leg-on-leg hit by the Carolina Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho in a 2-1 Rangers victory the day before. Fox must sit out a minimum of 10 games and 24 days, with the earliest he could return being Nov. 29 against the Detroit Red Wings.
Of course, there’s no guarantee Fox won’t be out longer than that, although there also hasn’t been any indication that his undisclosed lower-body injury is a season-ender. Regardless, the Blueshirts’ last two games suggest there’s ample possibility that despite their 9-2-1 burst out of the gate, the club might be subject to some “mood swings” over the next month.
Rangers Were Jekyll and Hyde in First Two Games With Fox Sidelined
Unlike the high-octane, jaw-dropping style of Colorado Avalanche blueliner Cale Makar, so much of Fox’s brilliance is shrouded in subtlety. His hockey sense and vision lead to countless positive plays and decisions that go unnoticed beyond his sublime work on the point on the power play, his uncanny ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone and an ESP-like vision to see what a defender in front of him will do. Fox’s cerebral positioning and stick work in the defensive zone are generally overlooked – again, because those attributes aren’t of the spectacular variety, and because the Rangers have to come to count on those qualities being there game after game.
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Now, the club won’t be able to do that until at least after Thanksgiving. Those little things – or the lack thereof – are sure to get noticed now, even if it took Fox going out of the lineup for an extended period for that to happen.
“I don’t think there’s any comfort in losing Adam Fox,” coach Peter Laviolette said in taking the early lead for understatement of the season. (From ‘What Changes Are In Store After The Rangers’ Run Of Injury Good Luck Ran Out With Adam Fox’, New York Post, 11/7/23)
The Rangers’ first time out without Fox wasn’t pretty. They jumped to a 3-0 lead on the Minnesota Wild on Nov. 4, spent the rest of the game getting mostly dominated in possession in blowing that advantage, then salvaged a point on Chris Kreider’s tying third-period goal before losing 5-4 in a shootout.
The Blueshirts were outshot 40-18 and gave up four goals after allowing eight over the previous six games. However, they bounced back in a big way in their next contest, defeating the Red Wings 5-3 at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 7. The Rangers grabbed a 5-0 lead on the strength of a four-goal second period before things got at least somewhat interesting in the third, when they yielded three goals and Detroit came close to cutting it to a one-goal margin late in the period.
Buckle up.
“I thought it was a really good win,” Laviolette said. “It’s a little frustrating in the third period when (the Red Wings were) able to capitalize on a few things. … We can fix that. Overall I thought we came out with the right attitude and the right pace, and really put the game where we wanted to put it, right from the start, so I was happy with that.”
To be sure, the two-game sample size remains too small to judge just how profound Fox’s absence will be. There are other factors at play, such as second-line center Filip Chytil also being out for an uncertain period with a suspected concussion suffered against the Hurricanes, which broke up his dynamic trio that included Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafreniere and caused a ripple effect through the lineup. Igor Shesterkin is also banged up and didn’t start the past two games, though backup Jonathan Quick played well in both to help the Rangers earn three points.
Still, it’s hardly pessimistic to ignore the standard “next man up” platitudes. It seems likely that at some point over this Fox-less stretch, the Rangers are going to again have a difficult time without the defenseman who powers so much of what they do well in his 20-plus minutes of ice time per game. Fox’s possession numbers this season: 53.8 Corsi for, 60.0 goals for percentage and an 52.7 expected goals for mark.
Blueshirts’ Lack of Defensive Depth Set to Be Tested
The main option to “replace” him is a work in progress. Zac Jones drew into the lineup against the Wild and struggled badly, posting a 33.3 Corsi for and 32.9 expected goals percentage. Paired with fellow early 20-something Braden Schneider, the duo was caved in at even strength, posting a 32.3 Corsi for and giving up 13 scoring chances in just 13 minutes of ice time.
They then epitomized the up-and-down path that might be in store in the win over Detroit. The Jones-Schneider tandem was outstanding, posting a 61.8 Corsi for percentage and a 69.0 expected goals for percentage, with the Rangers generating seven high-danger chances for to three against while they were on the ice. Jones recorded an assist and had three shots on goal in using his speed and lateral elusiveness to attack the net. Both players were more than sound in their own end.
The two-game stretch perhaps also perfectly encapsulates Jones’ limited experience on Broadway, where he’s flashed tantalizing quickness and offensive skills while also forcing questions about whether he’ll be able to defend adequately in the NHL on a regular basis.
Maybe Jones, the Blueshirts’ third-round pick in 2019, will continue to rise to the opportunity.
“I thought that pair was excellent,” Laviolette said, his voice containing a thinly-veiled element of excitement. ” … I thought Jones and Schneider, that pair was excellent.
” … At the end of two periods, I thought they had a major impact on the game.”
Unless Jones is completely over his growing pains, though, it’s fair to assume that the Rangers will need more – perhaps considerably more – from regular defensemen Jacob Trouba, K’Andre Miller, Ryan Lindgren, Schneider and Erik Gustafsson while Fox gets healthy. Jones played very well against the Wings, but it seems like a lot to expect him to turn in nightly performances like that one – just as he probably won’t be as bad as he was against the Wild each time out.
Related: Rangers Need Gustafsson to Step Up with Fox Out
What the Rangers would like to avoid is a crapshoot, not knowing whether their defense will be a liability or a confident, responsible unit from game to game while Fox is sidelined. With tough matchups against the New Jersey Devils, Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins on tap before Fox can return, the Blueshirts want to find ways to earn as many points as they can and avoid a prolonged slump that washes away their season-opening surge. It remains to be seen if the club can consistently match up with top opponents minus Fox’s steadying influence.
The potential silver linings to emerge from Fox’s injury, however, are already on display. The Rangers have embraced Laviolette’s 1-3-1 on-ice system and gotten results in his first season in charge; with the need to rely on it even more with Fox (and Chytil) out, the team’s belief in closely following that system could foster more closeness and trust in their coach and each other – which appeared to be the case through the first two periods against Detroit. The Blueshirts were quick to the puck, engaged, and to a man, assured and confident in their roles and responsibilities.
Fox might also benefit in the long run, with the unintended time off keeping him fresher for the playoffs, given his typically heavy workload during the regular season.
Those possible benefits, however, won’t be realized if the Rangers crater over the next month. Fox has recorded 11 points in his 10 games and was at the controls of a power play that’s converted on 34.1 percent of opportunities in 2023-24 – tied for second in the league. If the offense dries up, the power play becomes ineffective, the defense suffers and the Blueshirts fall into an extended slide, the pressure on Fox to return will increase with each game. When he will able to do so – and how impactful his play will be coming off the first significant injury of his career – is anyone’s guess at this point.
Avalanche Thrived Without Makar Last Season
In addition to their performance Nov. 7, the Rangers could draw some major encouragement from Makar’s Colorado Avalanche, who went 17-3-2 last season in games the 2022 Norris Trophy winner missed – though the comparison is hardly perfect. Led by star forwards Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, both of whom bettered 100 points, and with high-end supporting players such as Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen, Colorado was a superior team at 5 on 5 in 2022-23, finishing with 52.2 Corsi for and 51.6 expected goals for marks. The Avs’ powerful roster helped them to minimize Makar’s absence and thrive.
In contrast, even-strength play has been a weakness for the Rangers for years. With a Corsi for mark of 48.2 and an xGF of 48.3 at 5 on 5 this season, the Blueshirts are heavily dependent on their dangerous power play and need their high-end players in the lineup to keep them as competitive as possible at even strength. No one is more important to both areas than Fox, who plays on a talented roster but one not nearly as dangerous or deep as Colorado’s.
The Rangers were already deficient at 5 on 5 with Fox in the lineup. For at least one game, they were able to avoid dropping off further at even strength without him – though that came one game after they were mostly crushed at 5 on 5. The power play didn’t look any less powerful against the Wings, converting twice in three opportunities.
Can they keep it up without a player of Fox’s caliber? He makes the Rangers’ loaded first PP unit go with his puck movement, calmness at the point and uncanny ability to maximize Kreider’s net-front presence with passes and shots that Kreider can tip in or redirect past the goaltender. The Blueshirts were able to replicate that effect Nov. 7, with offseason steal Gustafsson firing a point shot that Kreider got his stick on for a redirected goal.
Injuries happen. The Rangers have been spoiled since the start of the 2019-20 season, when Fox won a job on the blue line and went on to miss a small handful of games over his first four seasons in rising to an elite level. It was perhaps inevitable that his team would have to learn to deal with the absence of perhaps its most important player at some point.
Now is that time. For the Rangers, they’re hope the learning curve isn’t too steep – and doesn’t resemble a rollercoaster track until Fox returns.
