For the past two seasons, I’ve conducted a comparative analysis to determine whether or not the Detroit Red Wings were playoff contenders around this time of year.
In 2022-23, they held a playoff spot at the Thanksgiving checkpoint, but their underlying numbers were sketchy at best. Last season’s analysis had a slightly better forecast. Yet, in both cases, Detroit ultimately missed out on a postseason berth.
This year is different – the Red Wings are currently out of the playoff picture. Their underlying numbers don’t scream playoff contender, either. But could Detroit rebound and sneak into the playoffs?
Eastern Conference Playoff Race
After 21 games—roughly the first quarter of the 2024-25 season—the Red Wings are in a weird spot. They’re three points out of the last wild card spot, but also three points away from last place in the NHL. A streak in either direction could define their season.
According to Tankathon, Detroit has the third-toughest schedule remaining. And, as of Wednesday, MoneyPuck gives the Red Wings a 18.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.
However, there is a lot of ambiguity in the Eastern Conference. Only a few teams have separated from the pack so far. And the others—including the Red Wings—aren’t separated by much.
Because of this, the Red Wings have a tremendous opportunity in front of them. After sweeping the season series against the Islanders, Detroit has plenty of games remaining against the other playoff contenders. There’s one more game against Buffalo to determine who wins that season series. Two more against Boston. And the Red Wings have yet to face the Flyers and Blue Jackets, and will play them both three times in the coming months.
Related: 5 Red Wings Storylines to Follow Over the Rest of the 2024-25 Season
Detroit hasn’t faced the Tampa Bay Lightning either, and have four matchups on the schedule. Interestingly, the two teams don’t play each other until 2025 – two contests in January, one in February, and one more in April.
There is ground to make up, for sure. But it’s not dire.
What’s Next for the Red Wings
First and foremost, the Red Wings need to execute. They’ve been better defensively since their disastrous west coast road trip, but still need to find another gear offensively.
While Thanksgiving has been the traditional barometer for playoff chances, a better checkpoint for the Red Wings might be Sunday, December 15 – the first of three straight days off for the Red Wings after facing the Toronto Maple Leafs at home the night before. This is when the Red Wings should take stock of their team performance and playoff chances. Is the team competing well? Are reinforcements needed? Should there be a new voice in the room?
Related: 3 Reasons the Red Wings Should Be Thankful in 2024-25
If the team is performing well, then adding to the roster shouldn’t be out of the question. And if the Red Wings are still on the outside looking in, then Detroit’s management team needs to weigh the potential impacts of a coaching coach versus riding it out, selling at the deadline, and positioning themselves for a lottery pick (plus how all of that will impact their core players).
All of this to say, the next nine games will be telling when it comes to the future of this team. It’ll be an uphill battle, for sure, especially if the Red Wings want to make good on Steve Yzerman’s annual directive of incremental growth. The task ahead isn’t impossible, though.
Data courtesy of NHL.com, MoneyPuck, and Tankathon.
