The recent offer sheet signed by Dylan Holloway with the St. Louis Blues can and potentially should be used as a comparable for Nick Robertson of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Holloway, once a highly touted prospect selected 14th overall by the Edmonton Oilers, accepted a two-year offer sheet from the Blues worth approximately $2.29 million AAV. He wanted more opportunity, wasn’t shy about taking more money, and gets to start fresh and prove his worth with another NHL club.
Even if unlikely at this stage of the offseason, this scenario isn’t all that different from one potentially facing the Leafs and Robertson. He finds himself in a similar position with the possibility of an offer sheet on the table.
What Makes the Holloway and Robertson Situation Similar?
The money, the offer sheet compensation, and the behind-the-scenes dynamics are eerily similar when it comes to both players.
For Robertson, an offer sheet similar to Holloway’s could be tempting, especially if another team believes the Leafs are in a bind as the Oilers were. Toronto has limited cap space, with only around $1.25 million available. Should Robertson receive an offer sheet with an AAV of $2.29 million or more (the same as Holloway’s), Toronto would be hard-pressed to match without making roster adjustments.
While the Oilers faced two offer sheets at one time, the reality was that Edmonton would have struggled to justify the raise for either player. GM Stan Bowman made a business decision not to overpay and he pivoted, adding Vasily Podkolzin and keeping some cap flexibility to make other moves down the line. The Leafs might have to consider doing the same if another team decides to make a play for Robertson.
Related: Oilers Lose Broberg & Holloway to Blues’ Offer Sheets
Holloway’s choice was also about opportunity, something Robertson wants. Holloway’s decision was driven by the desire for a more prominent role, increased ice time, and dissatisfaction with the outlook of where he might fit on a deep roster. Robertson’s journey in Toronto isn’t that different, as the young forward has failed to establish himself at the NHL level. He’s shown flashes of potential but has been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, splitting time between the AHL and NHL thanks to the nature of his contract.
Would the Maple Leafs Match an Offer Sheet on Roberston?
The Maple Leafs, like the Oilers, may find themselves in a difficult position if Robertson were to receive an offer sheet. With limited cap space, the same offer Holloway got would require GM Brad Treliving to free up at least $1 million from the current roster. The situation raises the question of whether Toronto would be willing to make the necessary moves to keep Robertson. If they let him walk, they would receive just a third-round pick in compensation. That’s not ideal.
Also like Holloway, the likelihood that a team offers more and ups the compensation is low. While Robertson has shown potential, he has yet to prove himself as a regular top-six forward in the NHL. An offer sheet exceeding $4.581 million, which would require a second-round pick as compensation, isn’t coming.
The prospect of losing Robertson for little return isn’t ideal. As the Oilers did with Holloway, the organization has invested in Robertson’s development and his long-term potential. However, the one big difference between these two players is that Robertson has already said he wants out. In that way, he’s more like Philip Broberg (who also signed an offer sheet with the Blues). With Toronto’s current cap situation, they may have to make a tough decision if put to the test, choosing to let a player leave who doesn’t want to be there.
Will a team take a chance on Robertson as the Blues did on Holloway? And, if an offer sheet were to come, how likely is it the Maple Leafs are willing to pay $2.29 million to keep him?