When Steven Stamkos signed his four-year, $32 million deal with the Nashville Predators, the expectation was that a future Hall of Famer, even in his mid-30s, would provide elite scoring and veteran leadership to a team in transition. Now, 17 games into the 2025-26 season, the narrative has soured.
The fit, which always had its question marks, is looking increasingly problematic. Stamkos is mired in one of the worst slumps of his decorated career, the Predators are struggling, and the $8 million average annual value (AAV) on the books for two more seasons is beginning to look like an anchor. This isn’t just a slow start; it’s a systemic failure that has insiders and front offices around the league reigniting trade speculation.
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The Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s be blunt: the production has fallen off a cliff.
As of Nov. 9, the 35-year-old forward has managed just three goals and four points in 17 games. He’s a minus-7 and has found the scoresheet only twice in his last 12 outings.
This isn’t just a scoring drought; it’s a statistical desert. Stamkos is currently on pace for a 14-goal, 19-point season. To put that in perspective, his lowest 82-game point total was the 53 he posted last season in Nashville. Before that, he averaged 92 points in his final three seasons with the Tampa Bay Lightning, including a 40-goal campaign in 2023-24.
The most damning analytic is his shooting percentage. A career 16.7-percenter in Tampa, Stamkos is currently connecting at 8.6%. He’s also on pace for 169 shots, a far cry from the nearly 250 he averaged in his Tampa days. When a sniper of this magnitude stops shooting and stops scoring when he does, you have to look deeper than the player. You have to look at the system.
Deconstructing the Decline: Why Isn’t It Working?
While a drop-off was anticipated when Stamkos left the loaded Lightning roster and the offensive ecosystem built around him, few predicted the fall would be this steep. The primary causes are a cocktail of schematic misfit, role changes, and the undefeated march of Father Time.
The Power Play Is Powerless
The single biggest factor is the neutralization of his greatest weapon: the one-timer.
In his final season in Tampa, Stamkos racked up 39 power-play points, nearly half of his 81-point total. He was the trigger man on the league’s best unit (a 28.6% monster). In Nashville, he’s a secondary thought on the league’s 26th-ranked power play.
The Predators’ setup simply isn’t designed to feed him. His “quarterback” is different. In Tampa, Victor Hedman (who averaged 2.1 shots/game) was a pass-first distributor whose primary goal was to get the puck into Stamkos’s wheelhouse. In Nashville, Roman Josi (2.8 shots/game since 2024-25) is a high-volume shooter. Without a high-end facilitator dedicated to feeding him, Stamkos’s “bread and butter” shot—the one that made him a 60-goal scorer—has been effectively erased from the game plan.
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The impact of losing a teammate like Nikita Kucherov cannot be overstated, either. The back-to-back Art Ross Trophy winner has no Predators equivalent.
Has He Lost a Step?
Finally, the data suggests age is becoming a factor. NHL Edge shows Stamkos’s max skating speed this season has topped out at 21.88 m.p.h. His top mark last season? 24.21 m.p.h. A drop of nearly three miles per hour is significant. That loss of separation speed makes it harder to get open for a shot and harder to beat defenders wide. When combined with a system that isn’t feeding him, it’s a recipe for offensive stagnation.
The $32 Million Question: What Happens Next?
This slump has, predictably, reignited trade speculation. As TSN’s Jeff Marek noted, “something has to change.” But moving a 35-year-old icon with an $8 million cap hit and two more years on his deal is extraordinarily complex.
The primary obstacle is the contract itself. Stamkos possesses a full no-move clause (NMC), giving him complete control over any potential destination.
According to sources, Stamkos is not actively looking for a move and reportedly loves living in Nashville. However, he also hasn’t entirely ruled out a trade. If a deal were to materialize, he would be “pretty picky” and would only approve a move to a short list of teams.
From Nashville’s perspective, general manager Barry Trotz has not yet engaged in trade discussions with other teams, nor has he and Stamkos discussed a trade. But as Pierre LeBrun reported, if the Predators are out of the playoff picture in the second half of the season, the front office would be open to fielding calls. If Stamkos can’t find his game, that $8 million contract becomes a “nightmare” for a non-playoff team.
For a deal to work, the Predators would almost certainly have to retain salary, a move that could become more palatable for both sides as the salary cap is expected to jump.
The Rumor Mill: Potential Landing Spots
If Stamkos does agree to waive his NMC, where could he go?
The Vancouver Canucks have reportedly inquired, according to Rick Dhaliwal. An injury-riddled Canucks team looking for a power-play specialist could see Stamkos as a high-reward gamble. The Montreal Canadiens have also been suggested as a team that might be “curious.”
But the most intriguing, and perhaps romantic, theory involves a potential reunion with the Lightning. Stamkos and his wife recently purchased land on Davis Islands in Tampa, with plans to build a new home around the time his Nashville contract expires. It’s clear they intend to retire in the area, leading to speculation that his move to Nashville was never intended to be a long-term hockey home.
The situation is akin to a veteran Formula 1 driver, famous for his aggressive cornering, moving to a new team that gives him a car built for fuel efficiency. The skill is still there, but the machine isn’t designed to leverage his signature strength.
Stamkos can still shoot a puck. But if he wants to get back to being an elite goalscorer, it’s becoming abundantly clear it won’t be in Nashville.
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