The NHL playoffs begin this weekend, and there will surely be some highly competitive battles in the first round in each conference. Every team wants to enter the postseason firing on all cylinders, but that’s rarely the case for everyone. Let’s look at who’s hot and who’s not entering the playoffs, starting with the Western Conference.
Winnipeg Jets: Scorching Hot
There may not be a team in the NHL hotter than the Winnipeg Jets. They’re riding a seven-game winning streak, including a 7-0 beatdown of the Colorado Avalanche, who will be the Jets’ first-round opponent. As you may have guessed, goaltending has been a significant factor in the Jets getting back on track after a downturn in the middle of March.
Connor Hellebuyck has had a fantastic season and looks to be the frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy. He is 5-0-0 in his last five starts and has a .938 save percentage across that stretch. His backup, Laurent Brossoit, has been excellent, too, posting a .928 SV% in 22 games.
Hellebuyck, and maybe Brossoit, will be the Jets’ best path to advancing in the playoffs. Because even though the team is on a six-game winning streak and is 7-2-1 in their last ten games, there are some red flags in their play.
The Jets have just a 49.2 expected goals share (xG%) at five-on-five across their previous ten games. That’s not an awful number, but it suggests the Jets have been getting by with hot goaltending and plus-finishing. So, while they might be scorching hot in the win-loss column, it’s not a guarantee it will translate to the playoffs when it becomes the best vs. the best.
Dallas Stars: Hot
I recently wrote about how the Dallas Stars are the favorites in the Western Conference and even the entire NHL to win the Stanley Cup, so it’s no surprise to see them hot. They’re 8-2-0 in their last ten games and look to be entering the playoffs playing their best hockey.
Related: Dallas Stars May Be Team to Beat for 2024 Stanley Cup
The Stars have been an excellent five-on-five team all season, but they’re killing it to end 2023-24. They have a 59.42 xG% across their last ten games; only the Carolina Hurricanes have posted a better xG% in their previous ten games.
Furthermore, Jake Oettinger seems to be turning a corner after struggling for nearly two months of the season. Perhaps that was injury-related, but he looks closer to the netminder he was a season ago when he posted a .919 SV%. Oettinger is 9-1-0 in his last ten starts and has a .939 SV% across that stretch. If that play continues into the postseason, he makes an already deep and lethal Stars team that much more difficult of an out.
Colorado Avalanche: Cold
I still wouldn’t bet against the Avalanche once the playoffs start, but they’re heading in the wrong direction. They’re 3-5-2 in their last ten games, have blown some pretty comfortable leads in their losses, and had the previously mentioned 7-0 blowout defeat to the Jets.
The Avalanche aren’t necessarily playing all that poorly over their last ten games. They have a 50.7 xG% at five-on-five, but that’s also not a number we’re used to seeing from the Avalanche when they’re at their best. That number is usually in the mid-50s when they’re firing on all cylinders.
But the biggest concern for the Avalanche heading into the playoffs is their goaltending. They have a team SV% of .888 across their last ten games, and that number worsens when you expand it from five-on-five to all strengths and see it sitting at .875. Most of those goaltending woes have been Alexandar Georgiev, who has played a ton this season.
Georgiev has started 62 games and appeared in 63, the exact totals from a season ago. Unless you’re Hellebuyck, that’s a significant workload for most goalies in today’s NHL. It’s probably fair to say fatigue may be a factor, especially in his recent results. Georgiev is 1-3-2 in his last seven appearances and has an .851 SV%. That won’t cut it in the playoffs, especially since their first-round opponent is Hellebuyck and the Jets.
I’m not doing concern meters for the struggling teams in this article, but my concern level for the Avalanche is about a seven. I like their roster, especially after adding Casey Mittelstadt, Yakov Trenin and Sean Walker at the trade deadline. But the team is not playing well to close the season, and Georgiev’s play is a significant concern. It’ll be interesting to see if these problems are legit or if they’ll flip a switch once the playoffs start.
Edmonton Oilers: Very Warm
It’s been quite the season for the Edmonton Oilers, but they’re heading into the playoffs on the right note. They’re 49-25-6 for the season and are 6-2-2 in their last ten games. Considering how their 2023-24 started, it’s quite impressive they are where they are in the final week of the regular season.
The Oilers have been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL and have continued that across their last ten games, totaling a 57.11 xG%. Connor McDavid recently missed three games with a lower-body injury, but that doesn’t seem like a long-term concern. Otherwise, he’s having another Hart-worthy campaign.
Another positive has been Stuart Skinner, who has a .907 SV% across his previous ten appearances. He’ll probably need to be a bit better than that in the playoffs. But considering how his season started, the Oilers should feel better about his play heading into the postseason. Overall, this team is in good shape.
Nashville Predators: Cooling Off
After an incredible 16-0-2 stretch that helped them secure a playoff spot, the Nashville Predators have returned to Earth; they are 4-5-1 in their last ten games. Still, I like how head coach Andrew Brunette has his team playing heading into the playoffs.
The Predators have a 55.28 xG% across their last ten games, and their offense has been one of the best in the league at five-on-five, as they’re averaging 3.48 expected goals per 60 minutes. They are giving some of it back defensively, but if those offensive numbers keep up in the playoffs, they’ll be difficult to defend for anyone.
The biggest question I have for the Predators is Juuse Saros. He’s been fine this season, but we usually don’t associate Saros with “fine.” He has an .897 SV% across his last ten games, which probably won’t cut it in the playoffs. Still, given his resumé, he could flip a switch at any moment. If so, the Predators are a good enough club to pull off an upset in Round 1, but only if Saros plays better than he has during the regular season.
Vancouver Canucks: Not Hot, Not Cold
The Canucks are one of the biggest surprises of the 2023-24 season, sitting with 109 points in the standings, two back of the first-place Stars. They got off to an incredible start, thanks to an insane PDO bender that saw them scoring all the goals and saving all the shots. That PDO bender has leveled off, and they’re now shooting and getting saves at more sustainable levels.
That’s led to the Canucks posting a 5-4-1 record across their last ten games, but they have been playing quite well. They have a 55.06 xG% across their previous ten games, suggesting they should be fine heading into the playoffs. I don’t have much else to add about the Canucks. If you want to take it a step further than ten games, they have a 54.79 xG% across their last 25 games, so there aren’t many red flags for where they are now. They look like a team that could make a run.
Los Angeles Kings: Warming Up
It’s been a rollercoaster season for the Los Angeles Kings that saw them fire head coach Todd McLellan around the All-Star Break. They went on a three-game losing streak to close March and begin April, but they’ve now won five of seven and are trending in the right direction heading into the playoffs.
Still, I don’t think the Kings are a legit Cup contender. They’re playing low-event, defensive hockey under interim coach Jim Hiller, who has the team playing a 1-3-1 neutral zone trap since taking over for McLellan. That may have worked for the New Jersey Devils in the 1990s, but it’s unlikely to work in 2024.
Furthermore, their first-round opponent could be the Oilers for the third consecutive year. Even with a 1-3-1 trap, they will have a tough time stopping the Oilers’ high-powered offense, and they don’t have the horses to hang with the Oilers offensively. So, while they may be playing well to close the season — they have a 52.11 xG% in their last ten games — they likely have a tough draw in Round 1, whether it’s against the Oilers or not.
Vegas Golden Knights: Lukewarm
The Vegas Golden Knights will have a tough task ahead of them if they end up slotting in as WC2 for the playoffs. That would mean a date with the Stars in Round 1. Still, the Golden Knights are the reigning champs, so you can’t count them out, right?
While you can’t count them out, I’m not sure I’d be betting on the Golden Knights to make a run this year. They are 6-3-1 in their last ten games, so they are winning, but the process has been iffy. They have a 50.04 xG% across their previous ten games and are having trouble generating offense, averaging 2.33 expected goals per 60.
Getting Alex Pietrangelo back from an illness will help, and so will Mark Stone returning for Game 1 of the playoffs. Even if they finish third in the Pacific Division, their first-round matchup would be the Oilers. The Stars or Oilers, pick your poison. It might be a hill too steep to climb for the reigning champs.
Western Conference Will Be a Gauntlet
The Western Conference is undoubtedly the better of the two conferences this season. Aside from the Avalanche, no team is cold heading into the postseason, so the two-month journey to the Stanley Cup Final could be a bloodbath out west. Fortunately for fans, that should make for some exhilarating hockey you won’t want to miss.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
