The Toronto Maple Leafs lost 3-1 to the Minnesota Wild on Wednesday (Jan. 29). The Maple Leafs have two winless skids of three straight games in January.
The team’s offensive woes remain a concerning trend. For the most part, the early playoff exits of the Maple Leafs have centred around a failure to break down the defensive structure of the opponent and to score goals when it matters most.
Offence Continues to Struggle
The Maple Leafs have scored one goal in each game of the team’s three-game losing skid. After displaying signs of offensive improvement from Dec. 1 to Jan. 21, when the club was fifth in the league with 3.28 goals per game, there has been a notable decline in production. However, the underlying numbers have been solid despite the lack of goals. At 5-on-5, Toronto has 62.3 percent of the Corsi For, 58.9 percent of the shots, 59.3 percent of scoring chances, and 56.9 percent of the high-danger scoring chances. The team’s inability to capitalize on opportunities has been a problem throughout the season, and getting shots through defenders has been a recent issue. Toronto is trending toward a 249-goal campaign, down from 298 in 2023-24, 278 in 2022-23 and 312 in 2021-22.
Some will have you believe that the Maple Leafs haven’t scored as much because the team has focused more on defensive play. However, the squad has not flourished at shot suppression, sitting 20th in shots against per game (28.8) and ranks near the middle of the pack in 5-on-5 scoring chances against and 5-on-5 high-danger scoring chances against.
The goaltenders deserve most of the credit for the team’s perceived defensive success on most nights. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll sit fifth and eighth, respectively, among goalies with at least 17 games played in goals saved above expected per 60 in all situations. Toronto also ranks fourth in the NHL with a 92.46 save percentage. Still, even their superb efforts can’t be enough on some occasions. Woll has allowed only two goals in each of his last two defeats because the margin for error has been far too thin. It’s why plays such as Morgan Rielly’s lost puck battle and Pontus Holmberg’s defensive miscue on the opening goal by the Wild get magnified. Coach Craig Berube defended Rielly after Wednesday’s game but admitted that he needs and expects more from him.
Related: Maple Leafs Need More Production From Morgan Rielly
However, the real reason for the losses is the offence has gone ice-cold, and it’s been an issue even when the defeats weren’t as plentiful. It was just easier to ignore because of the victories. However, in the last five defeats, Toronto has been held to one goal or fewer each time.
Penalty Kill Allows Another One
Despite Toronto’s success at controlling the play in 5-on-5 situations, the penalty kill has slumped. The Wild scored the eventual game-winner on a late first-period power play after Auston Matthews inadvertently deflected the puck into his net. The last time the Leafs’ penalty killers were perfect in a game came on Jan. 9 versus the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes went 0-for-3 with the man advantage but still defeated Toronto by a 6-3 score. Since then, the Maple Leafs have surrendered eight power-play goals across 16 shorthanded opportunities for the opposition. Unsurprisingly, Toronto ranks 32nd overall with a 50.0 penalty-kill percentage during that span.
The Maple Leafs have been among the top-10 teams on the penalty kill for most of 2024-25 but have fallen back to 13th amid a troublesome stretch in January. Getting Stolarz back in the lineup should help, as he sits 18th in power play save percentage (.871) despite being limited to 17 appearances. Toronto hopes his return comes before the 4 Nations Face-Off, but an exact date remains unclear.
Lost Ground in Division Race
For the first time since Dec. 30, Toronto isn’t first in the Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers lead the way with 63 points to the Maple Leafs’ 62. Fortunately, the Leafs have a game in hand and one more regulation victory. Toronto’s sixth loss in nine games to finish January allowed the struggling Panthers to keep pace and overtake them.
There’s still plenty of hockey left on the schedule, but a logjam of teams competing for the third spot in the division and the final two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference has developed, with the Ottawa Senators (56), Boston Bruins (56), Tampa Bay Lightning (55), Detroit Red Wings (53), and Montreal Canadiens (53) within striking distance of one another. The Maple Leafs must bounce back to maintain their buffer over the rest of the field.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
The Leafs played for the final time at home until Feb. 22 versus the Hurricanes. The team has 11 of their next 13 contests on the road, starting with a four-game trip on the West Coast. Reinforcements could arrive before the 4 Nations Face-Off break, as Matthew Knies, John Tavares, and Stolarz have been progressing. The lineup will receive a considerable boost once they are back in the fold. The team has showcased the ability to grind out wins this season when most of the pieces are in place, but when injuries have piled up this season, Toronto’s lack of depth has been glaringly noticeable, and the team has been difficult to watch.
Perhaps a trade fixes some of that, or maybe the team can take a chance on signing winger Brandon Saad, who was cut loose by the St. Louis Blues. In any event, Toronto’s lack of depth scoring needs addressing, whether that means shaking up the lines to create more balance or acquiring additional talent for a spark. The Maple Leafs would probably benefit from a little bit of both.
Analytics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.
