Right after the Chicago Blackhawks fell to the Boston Bruins on Wednesday night (Oct 11) for a 1-1 record over the season’s first two games, a friend texted me: “You know, the Hawks could make the playoffs.”
After the initial dismissal of this statement, especially for a team that oddsmakers feel only has a 17.4% chance of making the playoffs, the message led me to think about what must happen for the 2023-24 edition of the Blackhawks to exceed expectations and be one of the 16 teams that qualify for the playoffs at the end of the season.
Part of the issue, in addition to the assessment of their talent this season, is the four teams that qualified for the playoffs from the Central Division in 2022-23 did nothing in the offseason to signal that they will be weaker. The Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, and Winnipeg Jets are still considered the favorites to make the playoffs.
If the Blackhawks want to get past one of these four teams (or surpass other teams in the west for a wild-card spot), these five things need to happen.
Blackhawks Must Survive the October Gauntlet
As the NHL decided to showcase their new sensation, Connor Bedard, the October schedule has done the Blackhawks no favors in achieving success early on. To accommodate the major television partners in the United States and Canada, the NHL scheduled Chicago to open the season on the road to face the Pittsburgh Penguins (ESPN‘s opening night), the Boston Bruins (TNT‘s opening night), the Montreal Canadiens (Hockey Night in Canada), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (Rogers Monday Night Hockey on Sportsnet).
Those are the first four games of their six-game road trip to start their 2023-24 campaign. The Blackhawks do not have a home contest until Oct. 21, when they face the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights. They also have only two home games of the nine contests they play this month – those nine contests include two against the Golden Knights, two against last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Bruins, and a contest against the 2022 Stanley Cup champs, the Colorado Avalanche. The only two games against teams that finished below .500 last season are the Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes.
If the Blackhawks want to remain playoff-relevant after October, they must win roughly half the points available for the month.
Bedard Must Play Like… Bedard
The idea that the Blackhawks will be significantly better than last season starts with Bedard playing anywhere close to his expected potential. Whether you believe he will get 60 points or even 100 points in his rookie season, the 18-year-old has to avoid all of the distractions that have come, and will come, with not only being the first overall pick in 2023 but also of being considered a “generational talent.”
So far, Bedard has done just that. After two games, he has a goal and an assist. A point per game would be great. A little less than that would also help the Blackhawks exceed expectations. It is also encouraging to see that he is doing well at passing the puck, which will be a key to the point-per-game pace, and he has drawn quite a bit of attention already – a trend that will not go away. Bedard has already shown he can be a difference-maker, which is one of the keys to the Hawks’ success moving forward.
Blackhawks Need Decent Goaltending
Last season, the Blackhawks’ goaltending group posted a 3.63 goals-against average with a .898 save percentage. Whether it’s Petr Mrazek, Arvid Soderblom, or anyone else who happens to get between the pipes, those numbers have to be much better this season. It will also help this group if the skaters provide some help, especially in the defensive zone, something that did not happen often in 2022-23.
The goaltenders do not have to play at the level of Andrei Vasilevskiy, but they must play at a level that can keep the team in more games than last season. That has already happened in the first two games. Mrazek stopped 38 of 40 shots for a save percentage of .950, and many of them were high-quality saves in the win against the Penguins, leading Bedard to call his netminder “the MVP of the game.” Even against the Bruins, Soderblom played well in a loss that Nick Foligno recognized had more to do with the team’s lack of production.
Foligno and Veteran Presence
Speaking of Foligno, his presence, along with the other newly acquired veterans in Taylor Hall and Corey Perry, will be instrumental in not only helping the young Blackhawks develop but also in showing them what it takes to win games in the NHL. The injury to Hall is going to hurt, as he has been listed as “week to week” and there is still enough veteran talent on the roster to keep trending in the right direction.
All three veterans have a great deal of playoff experience, and they all know what it takes for a team to reach that level. The group has already started to get that message across, as well as adding some production for the team. It was the Foligno rush up ice that set up Perry for a shot on goal that led to the Jason Dickinson rebound goal that put the Hawks up by one against the Bruins. Getting the leadership and some production from this group will be critical if the team wants to win games this season.
Staying Close Until the Trade Deadline
When the famous 1980 USA hockey team got complacent, head coach Herb Brooks would always remind them, “You don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone.” If we assume that the Blackhawks can overachieve with their “lack of talent” to get within striking distance of a playoff spot at the trade deadline, general manager Kyle Davidson could then try to land a veteran without giving up too much in return. There seem to be many options in the loaded Eastern Conference, where a talented team that will miss the playoffs may want to trade impending free agents or a team looking for cap relief.
Related: What Blackhawks’ Luke Richardson Needs to Do in 2023-24
It’s an understatement that it is every team’s goal to win games. To that end, it’s also a goal to win enough games to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. On paper, the 2023-24 Blackhawks might not appear to have enough talent to make the postseason, but there is enough talent with potential on the roster that can grow, develop, and overachieve enough to win enough games to exceed expectations and find themselves in the first round.
