After publishing a previous post, in which I tried to predict which Edmonton Oilers might outperform their contracts this season, I thought it might make sense to write the opposite type of post. With names like Ty Emberson and Evan Bouchard leading the way with potentially favorable contracts, not every deal the Oilers have signed will pay off as handsomely as some might hope.
In fact, there are some whopper deals on this roster, and not in a good way.
Darnell Nurse (6 More Years, $9.25M)
You can’t do a post like this and not put Darnell Nurse at the top of the list. There is a chance he could rebound from a rough 2023-24 season and play up to the level the team and most fans are hoping. That said, there may never come a day when Nurse plays up to the level of a $9.25 million defenseman.
Nurse has a lot of attributes the Oilers like and need. Still, he got paid at a time when defensemen were getting big money and because the Oilers bridged him twice, they had to pay up. With the salary cap rising, this deal will increasingly look better and better over time, but it’s still handcuffing Edmonton. Nurse is will need to have an All-Star season, and even then, it won’t change the minds of some fans.
Nurse should be a top-pairing defenseman, easily logging 22-24 minutes per night and giving the Oilers solid minutes for that money. Instead, concerns are going into this season that he’s too inconsistent, he’s coming off an injury, and the team can’t find the right partner for him. All of those things are working against him.
Josh Brown (3 Years, $1M)
It’s not so much the amount of money the Oilers paid Josh Brown, it’s the three-year term they gave him that has fans scratching their heads. This is a player the Oilers coaching staff seems to like, but he’s not shown much in preseason and there are real doubts he’s a regular NHL-caliber player.
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The Oilers could always place him on waivers, and hope a team claims him or sends him to the minors, but that’s not why the team signed him. There’s an expectation he’ll provide some meat and potatoes for this group and he’ll likely play. If he can’t and gets caved in, no amount of money was worth signing him in free agency when there were likely better options.
Viktor Arvidsson (2 Years, $4M)
I believe Viktor Arvidsson will have a solid season and build chemistry with Leon Draisaitl. That said, at $4 million, if he doesn’t the Oilers signed a player who was supposed to be one of the solutions to their second-line issues and paid $4 million for him. Arvidsson is a go-getter. He’s dogged on the puck and brings an element the Oilers could use. Still, he’s smaller and was a bit injury-prone before signing in Edmonton.
The Oilers went after Arvidsson because he’d been a thorn in their side for several playoff series against the team in recent seasons. They need this kind of player playing for them and not against them. If he can’t bring that element on a nightly basis or he doesn’t mesh well with Draisaitl and Jeff Skinner, he could become a player the fans turn on because of his salary.
It’s not a huge amount, but any team as tight to the cap as the Oilers could have used that money to fill a major hole on defense and that could follow a player like Arvidsson around. It won’t be his fault, but in a market like Edmonton, that often doesn’t matter.