So, about those Winnipeg Jets? If you had them 14-1-0 after their first 15 games, good on you, because I don’t think anyone expected them to be the NHL’s best team after a month or so of action, but here we are. The question is, are the Jets as good as their record indicates?
Jets’ 5-on-5 Numbers Raise Some Concerns
The Jets had plenty of turnover from last season’s roster. Gone are Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt, the latter of who are with the New Jersey Devils and Florida Panthers. Replacing Dillon and Schmidt are Dylan Samberg and Logan Stanley, who played for the Jets last season but in lesser roles.
Samberg has seen the biggest bump in ice time, going from a third-pair role and averaging 15 minutes per game to the second pair and just a little over 20 minutes. Because of that, one would have thought the Jets would have taken a step back defensively, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
However, there might be some red flags. The Jets are allowing 2.56 expected goals per 60 minutes, the 21st-ranked rate in the NHL. Fortunately for them, having a goaltender as great as Connor Hellebuyck will help cover up for a defense that might not look as good as it seems. The Jets have a five-on-five save percentage of .933, largely due to Hellebuyck, who has a .936 SV% at five-on-five.
Related: 5 Ridiculous Stats From Jets’ Record-Setting 14-1-0 Start
So what about the Jets’ five-on-five offense? Have they missed Toffoli and Monahan? It’s a bit complicated. The Jets are creating 2.43 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, the 18th-ranked rate, but their five-on-five shooting percentage isn’t unsustainably high. In fact, it’s where you want to be (9.26 percent) as a team.
Where the Jets are lighting the lamp at will is on the power play. They’re converting on 41.9 percent of their man advantages, an unsustainably high rate. Even the best power plays usually finish the season around 28-30 percent, so that’s almost guaranteed to regress.
The Jets are doing a good job creating quality chances on the power play, and while they haven’t missed Toffoli and Monahan yet, they won’t shoot 27 percent on the man advantage forever. Their five-on-five expected goals share (xG%) of 48.61 percent ranks 22nd in the NHL, so they’ll need to improve at five-on-five to help stave off the regression coming on the man advantage.
Hellebuyck Is Elite, and Top 6 Has Finishing Talent
While the first section may have seemed a bit doom and gloomy, fear not, the Jets may continue to defy expectations. There are not many goaltenders in the NHL you can’t count on to be elite year in and year out. You can probably count most of them on one hand.
Fortunately for the Jets, they have one of those goalies in Hellebuyck. It’s too early to be talking about Vezina favorites, but Hellebuyck will be the Vezina favorite if his play continues.
Hellebuyck has an overall save percentage of .935 and is 11-1-0 through 12 starts. He’s saved 7.2 goals above expected, tied for second in the NHL with Igor Shesterkin, another one of those goalies you can count on to be elite year in and year out. Only Lukas Dostal has saved more goals above expected (10.2) than Hellebuyck.
That’s why the Jets could be good bets to continue defying expectations, even if they’re due for a regression. Shesterkin and the New York Rangers are a perfect comparable, too. The Rangers usually have their struggles at five-on-five, and that’s the case again this season. But Shesterkin consistently helps them play above their heads because he’s that good in net.
No, the Jets’ power play will not continue converting at 41.9 percent, but Hellebuyck probably won’t turn into a pumpkin. Even if his .935 SV% comes down, I can’t imagine him being worse than a .920 goaltender.
It’s also possible that the Jets’ top scorers may be able to carry the load as the season progresses, even if the team isn’t great at five-on-five. Like the Rangers, the Jets have some high-end scorers in the top six.
The contract-year bump is real, and Nikolaj Ehlers looks like he’s on his way to a career season a year before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He’s on pace for 98 points, and though I expect him to cool off, he’s finally found another level to his game.
Kyle Connor is consistently one of the more underrated goal-scorers in the NHL; he’s on pace for 49 goals as of this writing. He’s totaled 47 goals once in his career, so he could finish with 40-plus again. Cole Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi seem to have taken steps forward in their developments, too, a part of why the Jets have started so hot this season.
Jets May Have Already Banked Enough Points
Here’s more good news if you’re a Jets fan. Even if they’re due to regress, it would probably take an epic collapse to miss the playoffs. They’ve probably banked enough points that if they play .500 hockey for the rest of the season, they’ll be a playoff team.
Let’s say they go 34-33 the rest of the way. That’ll give them 48 wins and 96 points without overtime losses, which should be good enough to get them into the playoffs. They’ll eventually have some overtime losses, too, so it’ll be hard to miss the postseason.
I did not expect the Jets to be in this position, especially this early. Based on what they lost this summer, I thought they’d take a big step back and be fighting for their playoff lives. Instead, they’re atop the Central Division and have already built a big cushion between themselves and a playoff spot; they’re 13 points up on the eighth-place Edmonton Oilers.
Do I think the Jets are as good as their record? No, especially based on their five-on-five numbers. But that might not matter when you have a goalie like Hellebuyck who can help a team overperform. Either way, it does appear they’re much better than most expected, including myself.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck
