The Chicago Blackhawks are on a three-game winning streak. After a tumultuous start to the season, now is not the time to be negative. It is a good time to reflect on what the team is doing to secure victories. One change is the increased generation of high-danger scoring chances, a component the team has struggled with immensely. All season, the Blackhawks have looked like a perimeter team. They do not drive pucks to the net, generate shots from high-danger scoring areas, and are boxed out quite effectively by opponents.
The Blackhawks’ comeback victory against the Washington Capitals on Tuesday (Dec. 17) signaled a change though. Down 2-0 heading into the third period, Ilya Mikheyev drove hard to the net and notched a short-handed goal. Two follow-up goals were either scored by a player also driving hard to the net or someone shooting through significant traffic, taking away the goalie’s sightline.
Ilya Mikheyev scores a shorthanded goal for his 4th of the season. #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/xRu9MXl8vD
— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) December 18, 2024
The same change could be seen in the Blackhawks’ 3-1 victory over the Seattle Kraken on Thursday (Dec. 19). More high-danger chances lead to more goals and a victory.
Rather than simply relying on the eye test, and I will grant I have terrible vision, we can look at how the Blackhawks’ shot totals, shot locations, and zone time rank among NHL teams to see that generating high-danger chances has been an issue all season (all stats taken from NHL EDGE and Hockey Reference). The numbers provide invaluable insight into both how many and what quality scoring chances the team creates. They further prove that an improvement in this area, as we have seen in the past three games, will lead to more wins.
Blackhawks’ Below-Average Shot Generation
The Blackhawks’ 839 shots are the fourth fewest in the NHL. Everyone knows you need to shoot to score, but the quality of those 839 shots matters. Of those shots, 198 have come from high-danger areas, or the areas shaded in the picture below. That means 23.6% of the team’s shots are from the most dangerous spots on the ice. For comparison, the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers have 1,042 shots on goal and 255 from high-danger areas (24.5%). Not only is that 203 more total shots but also 57 more high-danger shots than the Blackhawks. It is no wonder the Panthers have scored 37 more goals than the Blackhawks.
Even though the Blackhawks struggle to generate high-danger shots on goal, they do much better at converting on those chances. A total of 8.5% of the team’s high-danger chances end up in the back of the net, which ranks 20th in the NHL. That number is higher than many of the best teams in the NHL, including the Panthers, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the New Jersey Devils.
Related: Dear Santa: Chicago Blackhawks’ 2024-25 Wish List
All this means that the Blackhawks do a decent job converting high-danger chances when they generate them. The problem is that production. The Blackhawks have 450 shots from mid-range and long-range areas. At the team’s conversion rate of 8.5%, shifting some of those shots to high-danger spots would mean a few more goals for a team in desperate need of offensive production.
Lack of Offensive Zone Time Mirrors Shot Production
To generate more high-danger scoring chances, you need to spend time in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, the Blackhawks have struggled in that regard as well. Only 41% of the team’s puck possession time is spent in the other team’s end. The league average is 42.2%. This trend continues across all scenarios: even strength (40.9%), power play (54.2%), and penalty kill (29.1%). That power-play number is most concerning. The team is more than 3% lower than the league average.
If you have watched the Blackhawks this season, you will undoubtedly not be surprised by these numbers. Oftentimes, the team has looked misaligned and out of sync, missing passes or turning the puck over in every zone. Those mistakes make puck possession and shot generation difficult. The elite offensive teams in the NHL spend more time attacking than defending. The Carolina Hurricanes, for example, are fifth in the NHL with 3.53 goals per game. It is not a coincidence they spend 47.6% of the time in the offensive zone—5% higher than the league average. Not surprisingly, the Hurricanes also are among the top teams in high-danger shots on goal as well.
This is the type of play the Blackhawks need to emulate. Of course, it is not as simple as flipping a switch. Scoring and possessing the puck in the NHL is difficult, but the Blackhawks have the talent. We have seen Connor Bedard heat up over the past few games. Teuvo Teravainen has eight points in his last five games.
The Blackhawks need more from the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi and Taylor Hall as well. The goal though should not be to suddenly become the most dangerous offensive juggernaut in the league. These players must focus on playing the game the right way to generate quality chances. That will lead to steady, consistent improvement that will pay off as the season progresses.
Continuing Winning Ways Under Sorensen
Fortunately, we have seen steps in the right direction throughout this winning streak. Captain Nick Foligno acknowledged the team’s improvement under interim head coach Anders Sorensen. Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times quoted Foligno saying:
Anders says it’s not sexy, but it is. It’s good hockey. And that’s what guys are seeing… It’s tape-to-tape, it’s clean, it’s in the back of the net. Or it’s a breakout play that just looks so good and now you’re flying. You have three guys or four guys flying in the rush, and plays develop from that because we have the guys who have skill to make those plays. It’s exciting to see our group understand that and get rewarded for that.
Good hockey is simple hockey. That is what Foligno is describing, and that is why the Blackhawks have scored 11 goals in the last three games.
The Blackhawks are not in win-now mode. They are in a rebuild. To rebuild successfully, you need a solid foundation. Improving the team’s offensive production by maximizing and capitalizing on high-danger chances will set the team up for long-term success.
