The Montreal Canadiens haven’t necessarily laughed last, but they are the ones to laugh latest, following their home-and-home sweep over the Detroit Red Wings. The two teams ended 2023-24 the same way, with the Wings coming out on top, in dramatic fashion.
In the second-to-last game of last season in Detroit, the Canadiens held a 4-1 second-period lead, only for Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond to tie it up late… and score the overtime 5-4 winner. The next night at the Bell Centre, the Wings won 5-4 again, this time in a shootout, after then-Red Wing David Perron had tied it 4-4 even later, with five seconds left.
Red Wings Fall Short in 2024 Playoff Race
Patrick Kane, who had signed a one-year deal with the Red Wings two Novembers ago, scored the shootout winner, but didn’t celebrate. Despite tying the wild-card Washington Capitals with 91 points, they needed more regulation wins for the tie-breaker, falling short 32-27. So, even though the Red Wings might have humbled the Canadiens then, it meant very little to the Wings, both to their playoff hopes then and ultimately their playoff hopes now. They haven’t been able to use their playoff push as a stepping stone this season, as they’ve just fallen behind the Canadiens in the Atlantic Division following the sweep.
Ultimately, the sweep meant more to the Canadiens, for the better. Sure, losing the way they did to the Red Wings was embarrassing and showcased a lack of a killer instinct. However, losing the two points, enabled them to finish fifth-from-last in the standings, when the Arizona Coyotes ended with 77 points to their 76. At the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, those points meant the difference between drafting projected-superstar Ivan Demidov at No. 5 and the now-Utah Hockey Club taking Tij Iginla at No. 6.
Now, no one really knows how either one pans out at this point. And, no one knows for sure if Utah would have taken Demidov had their positions been reversed. However, it’s safe to say things have worked out for the Canadiens (relatively speaking), with general manager Kent Hughes having gotten “his” man by all accounts (from ‘Stu Cowan: Canadiens GM Kent Hughes proving he’s a very smart guy,’ Montreal Gazette, July 1, 2024) and the Habs having just passed the Red Wings in the standings. Of course, the Wings can still bounce back and the Habs can still falter. Either way, the playoffs this season remaining a pipe dream. The point is, fans can look to the Red Wings and their perpetual rebuild as a lesson.
Related: A Canadiens Trade Would Cap Off Already Successful 2024 Offseason
The Red Wings haven’t reached the postseason since 2016. And, their ongoing rebuild hasn’t exactly yielded linear growth in the standings (it seems inherently unlikely they’ll hit 90 points in consecutive seasons right now). To be fair though, if you’re Wings GM Steve Yzerman and your rebuilding team finishes one point out of the playoffs one season, you’re probably going for it the next offseason, too. However, the way he did was unconventional.
Yzerman Takes Unconventional Offseason Approach
For starters, they dealt underrated-defenseman Jake Walman (with a second-round pick) to the San Jose Sharks for future considerations, presumably to make room for prospect Simon Edvinsson. However, Walman was far from old at 28. In Canadiens terms, think the just-acquired Alexandre Carrier. So far this season, Edvinsson has a respectable 13 points through 30 games. Walman, with two years left under contract at a reasonable $3.4 million hit, has 25 (five goals)… on the Sharks. Again, in Canadiens terms, think Lane Hutson, but with more goals. With fellow-leftie (and 56-point-man) Shayne Gostisbehere potentially heading to unrestricted free agency at the time (he did), it seemed like an odd decision.
It gets odder, in that their big offseason acquisition, in terms of cap hit, was Stanley Cup-champion Vladimir Tarasenko. The two-year, $9.5 million deal looks like a steal on paper for a former 40-goal scorer, but Tarasenko is also 33 at this point and had shown signs of decline. On top of re-signing the 36-year-old Kane, who had admittedly surpassed offensive expectations with 47 points in 50 games last season, it looked like the Wings were going all in, only Tarasenko has just four goals and 12 points this season. Kane has five and 14.
So, the Canadiens, who stumbled out of the starting gate and have really only come alive following the debut of Patrik Laine, may seem like long shots to build significantly on their finish in 2023-24. However, the Wings do as well, just to a far larger extent. With 31 points in 33 games, the Habs can realistically get to 80, maybe more if they continue to gel (and find a way not to bleed starter Sam Montembeault dry). However, the Wings won’t get to 90 and certainly won’t make the playoffs. The biggest difference is, the playoffs were clearly in their plans, whereas the Canadiens just wanted to be in the mix at the end of the season.
Slow and Steady Wins Race for Canadiens
There may come a time when the Canadiens decide to make their own splash via free agency. And it may very well be after they fall just short one season in the hopes of getting over the hump the next. However, there are better ways to do it. Hughes isn’t immune from odd decisions himself and he’s hardly infallible. However, looking at how the organization is put together and the prospect pipeline in place, it’s easy to envision a powerhouse taking shape eventually. The fact the Wings’ system is similarly stacked bodes well for their future too. Rushing it the way they have just artificially and unreasonably inflated expectations.
Truth be told, bo matter what the Red Wings did last offseason, the hope was always going to be for a playoff appearance. In that light, you can understand why Yzerman could have felt pressure to make moves. The Canadiens are proof that sometimes less ends up translating to more in that regard. The Wings are proof to to trust in the process, even if it means a slow and steady approach, even if that proof is coming at their expense.
At least for the time being.
