The Winnipeg Jets are off to the second round and have a date with Central Division rival Dallas Stars.
Rumours of the Jets’ premature death were greatly exaggerated, apparently. This writer had admittedly already started writing their obituary when they were down 3-1 in Sunday’s Game 7 to the St. Louis Blues with just a few minutes left, but they came back in the most dramatic of fashion.
Two goals in the final 1:55 with the extra attacker — including Cole Perfetti’s game-tying marker with just 2.2 seconds left, the latest game-tying Game 7 goal in NHL history — and Adam Lowry’s tally in double overtime helped the Jets finally get over the first-round hump when it looked like their first Presidents’ Trophy season was about go to total waste.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Jets’ Double Overtime Game 7 Win Over Blues
The Jets don’t have much time to celebrate, though. They are only one-quarter of the way to a Stanley Cup and the matchup with the Stars begins Wednesday at Canada Life Centre.
The Jets (56-22-4 in the regular season, first in the Central Division and Western Conference) got through the first round by the skin of their teeth and in spite of themselves a lot of the time. They’ll have to play a lot better in a lot of areas if they’re going to defeat a deep and talented Stars squad (50-26-6 in the regular season, second in the Central Division.)
Here, we’ll dive into four key things the Jets must do conquer the Stars in the series and and make their first Western Conference Final since 2018.
1: Get Better Goaltending From Hellebuyck
A lot of ink (and virtual ink) has already been spilled about Connor Hellebuyck over the past couple weeks about his ongoing playoff struggles, but it’s with good reason considering he’s often their most-important player.
The 31-year-old had another rough round and needs to perform a lot closer to his regular-season self — the one that dominated so much that he’s not only nominated for another Vezina Trophy but the Hart Trophy to boot — in Round 2 if the Jets are going to have any chance.
It borders on the absurd that the Jets managed to take four of seven games from the Blues considering how lost Hellebuyck looked in his crease a lot of the time. He allowed 26 goals for an ugly 3.85 goals against average (GAA), poor .830 save percentage (SV%), and negative 10.7 goals saved above average (GSAA). He was especially bad on the road, getting yanked in all three games at Enterprise Centre and posting a 7.24 GAA and .758 SV%.
His .830 SV% is the second-lowest of all time for any goalie in a playoff series credited with all of their team’s wins in that series. Only Gerry Cheevers in 1977 — who posted an .828 SV% for the Boston Bruins in the quarterfinals — had a worse mark, and let’s be honest: goalies were a lot worse overall in the 70s.
Hellebuyck does not need to be as dominant as he was in the regular season, where he posted a 2.00 GAA, .925 SV%, eight shutouts, and 41.6 GSAA. But he does need to get closer to that form, one he hasn’t been able to find in recent postseasons. Last year, he was awful in the first round against the Colorado Avalanche, posting a 5.23 GAA, .864 SV%, and negative 6.9 GSAA. In 2023, he struggled in the first round against the Vegas Golden Knights, posting a 3.44 GAA, .886 SV%, and negative 2.9 GSAA.
In the third period, overtime, and second overtime of Game 7, Hellebuyck looked closer to his best self and stopped all 13 shots that came his way prior to Lowry’s heroics. Hopefully, him besting all comers in next-goal-wins play gives him some renewed confidence. The Jets will need it, since head coach Scott Arniel does not appear willing to start Eric Comrie under any circumstances. Despite Hellebuyck’s struggles, Comrie was limited to three mop-up appearances against the Blues.
Hellebuyck has bought himself a scrap of goodwill at least with his Game 7 overtime play, but if he gets lit up by the Stars in Game 1, expect the scrutiny to ramp right back up. He won’t be in for an easy time against the Stars’ offensive dynamos in Mikko Rantanen (five goals, seven assists in the first round), Wyatt Johnston (three goals, four assists,) Roope Hintz (four goals, three assists), and Jason Robertson (missed Round 1 with injury but set to return sometime during Round 2.)
2: Win One on the Road
There’s a saying in the playoffs along the lines of “you’re not in trouble until you lose at home.” The Jets should ignore that saying going forward.
Sure, they won all four games at Canada Life Centre against the Blues to advance, and by virtue of having home ice advantage through the entire playoffs, could technically go 0-12 on the road and still hoist Lord Stanley’s Mug. However, that means they’d have to win 12 more in a row at home, which isn’t exactly feasible.
The Jets need to ensure they play a whole lot better at American Airlines Center against the Stars than they did at Enterprise Center against the Blues. The Jets got smoked in all three games in the Gateway to the West, being outscored 17-5 and looking nothing like the resilient and defensively-stout squad that stifled opponents all season. They committed a lot of self-inflicted defensive gaffes, unraveled when something went wrong, and couldn’t stop the Blues from scoring in bunches.
The Stars weren’t as hot at home down the stretch as the Blues, who 12 straight at Enterprise Center to enter the playoffs, but they did go 28-10-3 at home this season and 3-1 in home games over the Colorado Avalanche (most notably winning Game 7 in their own barn by roaring back from a 2-0 third-period deficit to win 4-2.)
It’s hard for road teams to win in the playoffs because of not having last change and the crowd factor, but the Jets were a good road team this season with a 26-15-0 clip away from Winnipeg. They need to find a way to play a couple of simple, mistake-free contests in Games 3 and 4 to escape American Airlines Center with at least a split.
3: Better Discipline
The Jets and Blues played a ferociously-physical series from puck drop of Game 1 all the until the very end of Game 7, with both teams dishing out huge hits on the regular. The clubs combined for 623 hits in the series and racked up 332 penalty minutes between them, many handed out due to post-whistle scrums, over-the-line hits, and late-game antics leading to misconducts.
Related: 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Hub
The trouble for the Jets is that they took 180 of those penalty minutes and often ended up with an extra man in the box after extracurriculars. The Blues did a good job of goading the Jets into taking retaliatory and undisciplined infractions, especially in Games 3, 4, and 6 when the Jets were frustrated with getting blown out.
The Jets were shorthanded 26 times in the series and allowed eight power-play goals for a 76.9 per cent penalty-killing efficiency. That’s nearly in line with their 79.40 per cent regular-season efficiency.
The Stars were in the middle of the pack on the power play this season, finishing 17th with a 22 per cent efficiency, but scored seven goals in 23 power-play opportunities — including the Game 7 game winner — for a 30.4 per cent efficiency in the first round.
Clearly, the Jets cannot afford to cut ruts to the sin bin again. Their penalty kill is generally good, but not elite. Keeping a bit more coolheaded — admittedly hard to do with how much every game means in the postseason — and sticking to their defensive structure will go a long way to keeping them out of the box.
4: Follow Late-Season Wins Over Stars as a Blueprint
The Jets have never faced the Stars in the postseason, but don’t have to look back very far for a blueprint on how to play against them.
The two teams battled hard in the Presidents’ Trophy race down the stretch, and a big reason the Jets were able to capture it was because they beat the Stars twice in critical late-season “four-point” games.
On March 14, the Jets downed the Stars 4-1 at Canada Life Centre in a game where the Jets dictated the pace from the get-go and played sharp defensively. Then, on April 10, the Jets shut out the Stars 4-0 at American Airlines Center, getting scoring from three different lines and holding them to 24 shots.
The Jets are at their best when they embrace a next-man-up mentality, which they did in those games and will have to continue to do considering Josh Morrissey and Mark Scheifele’s availabilities for Game 1 are currently up in the air. Vladislav Namestnikov, Perfetti, and Neal Pionk were the trio who stepped up the most to help the Jets capture Game 5 and Game 7 victories, with Namestnikov taking over as first-line centre, Perfetti scoring a pair in Game 7, and Pionk skating a whopping 46:15 in Game 7 due to Morrissey’s early departure due to injury.
Everyone in Arniel’s group will need to contribute in some way again.
Game 1 takes place Wednesday, May 7 at Canada Life Centre at 8:30 CT. Be sure to stay tuned with The Hockey Writers for extensive coverage of the series and the entire 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.