The Montreal Canadiens have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL since Dec. 15, so hot in fact that they had put themselves into the second wild card playoff position in the Eastern Conference, and only one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for third in the Atlantic Division as of Jan. 22.
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They are making believers out of doubters as their style of play has been more than just effective, it has been highly entertaining. With this surge, the Canadiens are looking to become buyers at the trade deadline. This alters the landscape of the trade market as one less seller is available, but it also signals a shift in the rebuild.
Montreal Targets Short-Term
Canadiens general manager (GM) Kent Hughes, despite the recent success of the team to climb into the playoff picture, will not be making any home run swings for star players. Because, as exciting as they have been, they aren’t at the stage where they are expected to make a deep playoff run. That is because they remain somewhat inconsistent and have some bad games, as the Canadiens are the only team to allow seven-plus goals in four or more games this season. That was with their starting goaltender Samuel Montembeault in the net for the majority of those blowout losses. Instead, Hughes will likely look to add depth to help the team remain competitive without altering the team’s chemistry. This most likely means that the unrestricted free agents (UFA) on the current roster, such as David Savard, Jake Evans, Joel Armia, and even Christian Dvorak, are all likely to remain, even if there is no plan to extend them.
By remaining focused on the short term, Hughes can continue the rebuild plan in terms of player development. The benefit of being a “small b” buyer is that it would allow Hughes to add to the NHL roster without adding roadblocks to players graduating next season. For now, it would ensure that the American Hockey League (AHL) Laval Rocket retain their top performers. Barring any injuries, there wouldn’t be a need to call up anyone. Allowing a team in the hunt for the top position in the AHL North Division to have all hands on deck for the season gives them that opportunity. This also allows for the development process to remain the focus. While giving time to mature in the AHL is one path, there is also the need to ensure the expanded roles of the youth on the NHL roster are not impeded.
Potential Canadiens’ Targets
The question is, what do they need? Without impeding the young players, the best area is to add depth. There is an excellent source of readily available, inexpensive depth, and that is the Pittsburgh Penguins. According to a report from RG.org’s Marco D’Amico, GM Kyle Dubas is looking to move some players. A focus on forwards is more likely as the stability of the Canadiens’ current blue line, along with the depth, doesn’t require any tinkering. At forward, however, an upgrade in depth could be beneficial, so long as the bottom six position for Emil Heineman is left untouched as he is the only rookie in the NHL to have more than five goals and 100 hits.
One forward listed as a fire-sale candidate in Pittsburgh is Anthony Beauvillier. The 27-year-old forward will earn $1.25 million this season and will be a UFA, making him a good candidate for a buy-low type of rental player for Montreal. His addition could help solidify the bottom six in case of injuries or depth forward position. He is from the Montreal area, so that is a plus for fans who like that kind of story. He is a winger who is capable of playing with pace and a possession game. But, Beauvillier has never had more than 21 goals (he only hit 20 goals once) and never more than 40 points. That points to him being easily acquired by Montreal, who have $6.694 million in cap space this season, for a mid-round pick, such as a fourth or fifth-rounder. With all that, the expectations for him should be kept low, and the expectations that he would be extended by Montreal are also unlikely.
Upcoming Canadiens Offseason
There is another important reason to look at shopping for a short-term bargain. The Canadiens are poised to take a leap forward in the offseason and will have the financial flexibility to make a significant addition. With over $18 million coming off the cap this summer (this includes both salary retentions on the books) there will be an opportunity. While that is a large number, some of that is possibly already earmarked for a Jake Evans extension, there will also be a need to re-sign restricted free agents (RFA) like Heineman and Jayden Struble. Conservatively, that would leave approximately $13 million for Hughes to work with, and that is if the salary cap remained at the current $88 million limit, which it most assuredly will not. On an episode of Agent Provocateur, NHL agent Allan Walsh reported that the NHL’s salary cap will have an upper limit of $97 million for the 2025-26 season.
“You heard it from me. I am telling you right now, you can write it down. I am not divulging any confidences here, I am not divulging any inside information per se, I am telling you right now the upper limit of the salary cap next year will be $97 million”
from Allan Walsh, NHL Agent via Agent Provocateur
Even if the nearly $10 million cap increase doesn’t happen, a more conservative increase could be $5 million, which in essence, returns the $18 million pot of money for Hughes to add to the roster via trade or with a big-name UFA. With the Canadiens’ success coming from a stable defence and a forward group that can roll out four effective lines, Hughes has a team with an identity.
The Canadiens will have an interest in giving their top-nine forward group a boost. They want to add a scoring punch, and with Ivan Demidov expected to join the club for the 2025-26 season, he brings that.
Despite Demidov, there will be a need to add more. As Canadiens fans know, injuries do happen, especially in Montreal, who were plagued with NHL-leading man-games lost for several seasons. Then there will be a need to add at center, even if Evans remains. The expectation is the loss of Dvorak to free agency will leave a roster spot open, but as Canadiens fans saw this season, center depth is still a glaring weakness. With the deep prospect pool and a truckload of draft picks, including two first-rounders, Hughes has the assets to make an enticing trade offer to fill any needs he sees fit to fill.
