It’s interesting the Montreal Canadiens chose to win three games in a row for the first time in 2023-24, when they’re all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. “Worse” yet, two of the wins have come against playoff teams, one even against a Presidents’ Trophy contender in the Colorado Avalanche on March 26, in one of their most impressive games of the season. Those are games they should be losing, right?
The other win over a playoff team, 4-1 against the Philadelphia Flyers on March 28, maybe not as much. After all, the Canadiens almost let the game get away from them, as they got outshot 16-5 in the third (30-17 overall) and had two potential goals against (and one admittedly for) called back. An empty-netter in the dying seconds closed out the scoring.
However, there’s no denying the Canadiens got the job done, equalling their point total from last season in the process (68). With 10 games remaining, they’re obviously running out of runway to even unrealistically make the playoffs. However, they are definitely in a good position to at least make a run at 80 points. Even getting close would constitute a significant year-over-year improvement the standings, arguably paving the way for playoff contention being the only logical goal in 2024-25 (whether they end up making it or not).
Canadiens Rebound from Post-Monahan Trade Swoon
Eighty points would be a relatively huge deal, especially as they face one of the toughest schedules of any NHL team down the stretch. However, they’ve at least proven on any given night they have what it takes to win, albeit far from every given night. It was only a few months ago in January, after they had pulled within a few wins of a playoff spot after a strong stretch heading into the holidays, that they were regularly getting humiliated.
Hell, as recently as last month, on the coattails of the Sean Monahan trade to the Winnipeg Jets, the Canadiens lost five in a row. The Monahan trade signalled the end of their season for all intents and purposes, because without him providing secondary scoring or stabilizing the lineup down the middle, general manager Kent Hughes was effectively throwing in the towel, in acknowledgement that he didn’t have the players to make a go of it.
Of course, Alex Newhook, who was returning from injury at the time, which factored into the justification to trade Monahan as early as they did at the start of February, has since come alive at the position. In part on the strength of his play (and that of others), the Canadiens have actually scored a decent 60 goals in the 23 games since (2.61 compared to 2.72 on the season). They’ve also given up an average of three goals per game, which actually constitutes an improvement (3.33)
Canadiens Show Improvement in the Standings
All that to say, three wins in a row isn’t a big deal, especially in the context of being a clear-cut non-playoff team. There are other stats that matter more, are more indicative of success. It’s just a nice-to-have in their back pocket, when they accomplished the “feat” on several occasions last season, when they finished fifth from last, as the best of the worst of 2022-23.
The Canadiens are obviously in a similar position right now. They’re sixth from last right now, but only one point above the Arizona Coyotes, who have played one more game. They won’t finish below that, as the fourth-from-last Columbus Blue Jackets only have 58 points and are at no risk of catching up to the Habs.
Looking at the opposite side of the standings, the Canadiens are tied in points with the Ottawa Senators, while the Calgary Flames are just three above them both. So, there’s one school of thought that suggests that, if they’re not careful, this latest surge of theirs will only serve to help them play themselves out of a high-end draft pick.
Thankfully, there are a few problems with that line of thinking. Firstly, they’re not exactly playing that well overall. Sure, there are outliers like the Avalanche game, but, against the Flyers, goalie Cayden Primeau bailed them out, and, seeing as he’s the backup, it’s not exactly something they should have counted on happening (at least not regularly). Furthermore, if the NHL review process, which is a coin toss at times, had been more favourable to the Flyers, that game could have turned out completely different.
Secondly, the way top prospects for the upcoming 2024 NHL Entry Draft are being rated, the Canadiens aren’t exactly in danger of missing out. For example, in their mid-term projections, The Hockey News had defenseman Zeev Buium rounding out the Top 10. Playing college hockey in the U.S. for the University of Denver, Buium finished with the same amount of points as top Canadiens prospect Lane Hutson did the season after he was drafted, with 48 in 39 games (Boston University). Buium is also significantly bigger.
Canadiens Will Get a Good Draft Pick Regardless
No one should really extrapolate how either one pans out at the NHL level yet, but the point is, based on how everyone sees Hutson in terms of potential, there is significant talent beyond where the Canadiens would realistically be picking. The stocks of defensemen like Buium and Zayne Parekh are on the rise too. So, if the Habs opt to draft for need, arguably like last season when they picked defenseman David Reinbacher, there should be several high-end forwards still available, i.e., Berkly Catton, Cayden Lindstrom, Tij Iginla.
Related: Canadiens Fans Have Reasons to Watch Rocket Beside Reinbacher
So, the Canadiens are in a fairly safe position. Beyond the top-rated Macklin Celebrini and maybe Ivan Demidov, there’s a lot of wiggle room in terms of assessing actual best players available. If the worst thing that can happen is they find themselves facing a hard choice between a Buium and a Lindstrom, management is probably going to be happy either way. A blue-chip prospect is an asset that doesn’t necessarily have to stay within the organization that drafts them. Remember, push come to shove, they can be traded.
Sure, the Canadiens can always go on a run these last 10 games, pushing them out of contention for a top-five or top-10 pick. That’s a possibility… the same way it’s a possibility they catch each of their next six opponents off guard. They’re all playoff-calibre, to put it lightly: Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers… and, oh, yeah, the same Flyers again, who’ll presumably have learned their lesson by the next meeting not to take the Habs for granted. It’s just not going to happen, just like the Habs aren’t going to fall down the standings to secure better odds at first overall, based on how they’re made up at this point. It’s fairly impossible for them to make huge moves up or down the standings right now.
So, if the Canadiens are staying where they are, give or take one spot, it should free up all fans to enjoy the ride. You have to believe the Habs themselves are enjoying it, which is a good sign for the seasons to come. It’s not that they’re happy about losing, because they’re, well, not… more and more. They’re happy about being competitive again. That’s something everyone should be able to get behind.