Considering that the Toronto Maple Leafs will be in a bit of a cap crunch next season as a byproduct of Auston Matthews’ and William Nylander’s raises coming into effect, it’s more important than ever that they eke as much value out of depth contracts as they can. One way in which to capitalize on a player’s skill while minimizing the cap hit is by effective use of adding prospects into the lineup on their entry-level contracts (ELCs). Despite being a Stanley Cup contender, the Maple Leafs do have some solid youngsters in their pipeline who could reasonably be expected to make their debuts next season, especially when considering the necessity of finding value contracts in 2024-25.
Easton Cowan
If ever there was a Maple Leafs’ prospect proving that he has the chutzpah to play at the NHL level this season, it’s Easton Cowan, who currently sits eighth in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) in scoring with 96 points in 54 games with the London Knights. His 1.77 points per game is second in the league behind San Jose Sharks draftee Quentin Musty (1.84), and he recently broke Dave Gilmour’s Knights record for longest point streak with a point or more in each of his last 36 games — the streak was only “broken” because the OHL regular season ended. He had 68 points in that stretch.
The somewhat undersized (5-foot-10, 171 pounds) right-wing pretty much checks all the non-size related boxes when it comes to what one looks for in a productive winger — he’s creative with the puck, an excellent playmaker, extremely strong in transition because of his well-above-average skating ability, and has an NHL-caliber shot to boot. The problem, as I’ve hinted at, is that he really needs to fill out before I’d consider him a candidate for a full-time NHL gig.
Cowan’s development path has been interesting, to say the least, and isn’t necessarily predictable. In 2022-23, he was a well below-average producer for a first-round selection in the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), scoring just 20 goals and 53 points in 68 total OHL games. It also helps his point totals for this season that he’s on a powerhouse team — one in which he isn’t even the leading scorer (Denver Barkley has 102 points) — but he’s still shown enough this season that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him garner a look at training camp or even partway through next season.
Nikita Grebyonkin
As an over-ager selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NHL Draft, Nikita Grebyonkin has since surged onto the scene for diehard Maple Leafs fans after having a superb breakout season in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). The 21-year-old scored 19 goals and 41 total points in 67 games this season for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, placing second on the team in points while playing over 15 minutes a night — an accomplishment in and of itself for any youngster in Russia. He’s also shown off a bit of grit, having dominated a fight early in the season.
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The production speaks for itself — he was third among all players 21 years old and younger in the KHL in points per game (0.61). His compete level is easily his best attribute as a forward; he’s tenacious with and without the puck and is completely unafraid of physicality to prolong having the puck on his stick or to retrieve it while forechecking. His shot and playmaking abilities aren’t anything special, but they’re not bad either. His skating ability is strong, though, as he is quickly becoming an expert in explosive power moves when holding possession of the puck.
Of the names on this list, I’m the least convinced that Grebyonkin will crack the NHL next season, though I do think he’ll transition to North American hockey. His KHL contract is up at the end of this season, which should be soon considering his team is in the midst of the playoffs right now, and rumor has it that he’s looking toward North America as his next destination rather than staying in Russia (from ‘Maple Leafs prospect Nikita Grebyonkin is having a breakout season in the KHL,’ The Athletic, March 26, 2024). I assume it’ll take him a year to acclimate to the different ice before transitioning to the NHL, so I would anticipate a season with the Toronto Marlies, but his skillset translates very well to the Maple Leafs’ preferred style of hockey.
Topi Niemelä
On the backend, there’s only one prospect I could see making the jump to the big leagues, and that’s none other than Topi Niemelä. He’s still working on his transition to North American ice after playing in the Liiga for the previous four years but has done so admirably, leading the Marlies in games played, time on ice per game, points, and power-play points. Just 10 of his 34 points have come on the man advantage, so it’s not like he’s a power-play merchant, either, not to say that he isn’t an effective power-play quarterback.
His hockey IQ is easily the best facet of his game. He’s an incredibly smart player, using his brain to calculate the right decision to make in transition, break up odd-man rushes proactively, make heady pinches in the offensive zone, and reading plays well in all areas of the ice. His quick transition to the different ice is relatively shocking, but that can be attributed to his extraordinary work ethic and adaptability — something that scouts and coaches have noted when talking about his path to the NHL.
If there’s one thing that will hold Niemelä back from playing in the NHL, it’s the simplicity of his game. Yes, he has a high IQ and makes the “right” play more often than not, but his play is a bit predictable by proxy of plainness. He’s not going to do anything creative with the puck, which may allow the opposition to take advantage of him when he’s playing in his own zone. I still think he will make the jump next season — maybe not to a full-time NHLer role, but I almost guarantee that he’ll be offered an extended look.
Maple Leafs Will Need ELC Contributors
Unless they find some bargain-bin unrestricted free agent (UFA) deals to throw out, the Maple Leafs will certainly need some contributions from young players coming onto the team on their ELC contracts. Their cap situation, especially next season, is just too dire to ignore the pipeline. Hopefully, some prospects will step up and contribute meaningfully to the lineup, and if any do, I would imagine it’s one of Cowan, Grebyonkin, or Niemelä.
