From the standpoint of the Montreal Canadiens and their fans (generally speaking), 2024-25 shouldn’t be about making the playoffs. Progress, certainly, but progress takes different forms. And, if you’ve just finished fifth from last in the standings (albeit eight points higher than the previous season), you’re logically going to measure that progress in different ways.
It’s of course possible the Canadiens improve in the standings. However, eyes will likely more so be on the progression of the team’s younger players and how the long-term roster is taking shape as a result instead. If anything, that would be the unifying theme tying the top Canadiens storylines to follow together, heading into 2024-25:
Samuel Montembeault’s First Full Season as Undisputed No. 1
When Samuel Montembeault signed his extension in late 2023, general manager Kent Hughes effectively wrote on the wall for everyone to see that he was going to be the guy moving forward. The Jake Allen trade at the deadline confirmed the intent, especially with an additional year left on the latter’s deal. Retaining salary in the deal with the New Jersey Devils (just to get it done) can only be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Montembeault and presumed backup Cayden Primeau.
To a degree, Montembeault has been here before. He ended up playing the most of any Habs goalie last season, upon unofficially having being handed the reins (with Allen having started three of the team’s first five games). However, he’s always had a safety net of some sort. While Primeau’s emergence as a full-fledged NHL goalie can be a driving force, Montembeault is clearly the guy, considering the aforementioned three-year extension, his in-his-prime 28 years of age and his stats, which have improved each season he’s been with the team.
Due to the three-year term and its modest cap hit ($3.15 million), the Canadiens are really only committing to him into the medium term. However, there’s always the possibility he continues to improve statistically, which could cause the Habs and fans to rethink the projected long-term plan of someone like prospect Jacob Fowler eventually taking over the role. Based on Montembeault’s impressive analytics, that realistically depends both on his progression and that of the young defense in front of him, which gave up a third-worst 33.4 shots against per game.
How the Defense Will Evolve
Barring any offseason trades, the Canadiens’ 2024-25 defense should comprise the usual suspects when all is said and done: Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, Jordan Harris, David Savard, Justin Barron and Jayden Struble as the likeliest candidate to fill the role as “seventh” defenseman.
However, even if that’s how things are projected to end up once the dust has settled, opening night could be a different story, with rookies Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux in the mix. Each having gotten in games to end 2023-24, they could be in line to get a prolonged audition, especially with Xhekaj and Struble still waiver-exempt.
There’s a good argument to keep Hutson and Mailloux in the American Hockey League, but, if they do survive training camp in some fashion, they could impress enough to force Hughes’ hand (and a subsequent trade). In such an instance all bets are off as to how the defense will look by the end of the season.
How Soon Kent Hughes Trades His Pending UFAs
On defense specifically, the Canadiens have a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) in David Savard. Premature rumours of him getting dealt go back some time, even if only to make room for fellow righties Justin Barron, Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher (with young, lefties Kaiden Guhle and Jordan Harris having been played at times on their off side as well). With Johnathan Kovacevic (another righthanded, pending-UFA defenseman) having gotten traded, the urgency to has died down. As long as Hughes gets his haul by the deadline for Savard, so be it.
No, the priority has shift to up front, where the Canadiens have five who are projected to make the team out of training camp: Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia, Jake Evans, Michael Pezzetta and Alex Barre-Boulet. Of those, it makes sense for Hughes to trade someone like Dvorak as soon as possible, perhaps even this offseason.
Related: Canadiens GM Hughes’ Top Priorities for 2024 Offseason
Dvorak is the team’s projected third-line centre. However he hasn’t been nearly as effective over his Canadiens tenure as one would hope ($4.45 million cap hit). Some might say Evans ($1.7 million), the team’s fourth-line pivot, has even surpassed him on the depth chart. Winger Alex Newhook certainly has. Based on his strong end of season down the middle, keeping Newhook at centre makes sense, especially if it opens up a top-six spot for a(nother) young forward in need of ice time.
Joshua Roy’s Development
There should be no doubt prospect Joshua Roy has the inside track to making the Canadiens out of training camp based on how he impressed since the All-Star Game. It’s just a matter of where he gets played. Looking at how Jesse Ylonen and Rafael Harvey-Pinard fell down the depth chart in large part due to an inability to get ice time higher up the lineup after relatively successful 2022-23 rookie seasons, Hughes and head coach Martin St. Louis should make Roy and putting him in the best position to succeed a priority. You do that by trading Dvorak.
Now, no one should delude themselves into thinking Roy is anything more than he is: a homegrown, projected top-six forward. He’s not necessarily a star and he’s certainly not the most exciting prospect in the system currently, even if just up front. That honour now belongs to Ivan Demidov. And, were it easier to keep track of the latter’s progress this season over in Russia, where’s he reportedly staying, that progress would take the top spot on this list.
It would just reflect the impact a projected superstar like Demidov could have on the organization. However, Roy is no slouch. And there is a roster opening, especially with Harvey-Pinard injured out of the gate. As long as Roy is deployed where he should be, there is no good reason he won’t continue to impress. There are just no guarantees he will be unfortunately.
Kirby Dach’s Health
The reason Newhook would play at wing instead of down the middle is the impending return of Kirby Dach. Some may say Canadiens fans are placing too much faith in the impact a single player, who’s never scored more than 38 points, can have on an entire team, especially if the suggestion is his return to health will help propel a fifth-from-last team into playoff contention. And there would be some merit to any naysayerism to that effect… some.
Ultimately though, we’re talking about a cascading domino effect where it’s not just one player, but every player put in the position Hughes intended for them. The fact we’re talking about a second-line centre in Dach, a player some saw (eventually) overtaking Nick Suzuki as the team’s No. 1, further drives home how critical a healthy Dach would be to the team’s success.
However, Dach has never played an 82-game season. He has only played 70 at most. He is also coming off an injury that limited him to just two in 2023-24. So, it’s easy to see how some are concerned he can stay healthy. It’s understandable if everyone in and on the peripheries of the organization takes extra interest in every single hit he takes, overanalyzing every frame of footage and stopping just short of sewing a layer of bubble wrap into his uniform.
Put it this way: Demidov remains the most important player in the organization based on how scouts have assessed his ceiling (superstaresque, to be clear). No one’s seen him so much as play a single game in a Canadiens uniform, though. Almost everyone has seen Dach, though. On that basis alone, the excitement is justified.
Those who have seen him make the players around him better can understand why he would be the most important player to the success of the team in 2024-25. Regardless, it still amounts to a non-playoff season, but the degree to which the team improves hinges on Dach’s health, and the degree to which fans get excited about the team’s future hinges on that improvement. And, as a 23-year-old who could conceivably centre Demidov at some point in that future, Dach figures just as heavily into it.
Yeah, talk about a domino effect.
