What can reasonably be expected from the 2023-24 edition of the Montreal Canadiens? Are they a playoff team? No, that is far too much to expect from a team that is only in its second full season of a rebuild. However, it is expected to see a team be competitive and remain on the bubble, on the outside looking in at the playoffs. That alone will be a jump forward and could be achieved simply by the roster remaining healthy.
Using the lineup for the first practice after the roster was set, and comparing that to last season’s results, the expectation of a competitive team is reasonable.
Canadiens’ 2022-23 Season Woes
In 2022-23, injuries were the bane of the Canadiens existence, so much so that the only player to play in all 82 games was Nick Suzuki. Last season, the Habs finished 29th in the NHL with 305 goals against (GA), for an average goals against per game (GA/G) of 3.72. With the same blue line returning, but with the experiences from last season, it’s unlikely they will significantly improve statistically, but they should improve some. What is still more important than the outcomes is the experience they will gain, which is a necessary step in their development.
Last season, the Habs also finished 26th in the NHL in goals for (GF) with 227, which is an average of 2.77 goals for per game (GF/G). This season, that number should rise, especially with additions to the lineup such as Alex Newhook. His skill set is well-suited for head coach Martin St. Louis’ offensive scheme. He plays with speed and generates offence off the rush, which is an ideal fit for the Canadiens. Newhook’s hockey IQ and vision will also greatly benefit an abysmal power play that finished 29th in the NHL at 16.1 percent. He scored 14 goals while averaging under 14 minutes of ice time per game. If he’s given top-six minutes and time on the power play this season, he should score 20 goals.
Canadiens Take a Step Ahead
Last season, Cole Caufield missed 36 games due to injury. Yet, when healthy, he scored at a 48 goals per season pace, scoring 26 goals in 46 games played. At each level he’s played, he’s been a prolific scorer, and under Martin St. Louis, he has found a coach that gets the best out of him. Because of that, he could be the first Canadiens player to break the 40-goal barrier since Vincent Damphousse in 1993-94.
Related: Canadiens’ Roster Choices Made with Rebuild, Not Playoffs in Mind
Suzuki and Josh Anderson round out the top line; both will be important offensively, but to expect more from them over last season may be too harsh as they will continue to face the top defenders in the league. If anything, Suzuki’s assist total will rise with a healthy Caufield, but an increase over his 26 goals last season, while possible, is not expected.
Next is Kirby Dach, who missed significant time as well. He scored 14 goals in 58 games, putting him on pace to score 22, and he should be expected to take another step forward in 2023-24. Placing Newhook on his line can only help in that regard. Adding Juraj Slafkovsky is a bit of a surprise. The team’s 2022 first-overall pick scored four goals in 39 games, putting him on pace for eight goals last season while playing a very limited bottom-six role before his season ended due to injury. If he is able to stick in a middle-six role and earn power-play time, he could score 15 goals.
The bottom six is where it gets interesting, especially with Sean Monahan centering the third line. When healthy, he is a 20-goal, 50-point center. A healthy season helps him with his next contract and the Habs at the trade deadline. Having two veterans with something to prove after season-ending injuries is an interesting choice. On the left, Tanner Peason is capable of 15 goals. On the right, the days of Brendan Gallagher scoring 30 goals are over, but 15 goals are plausible, especially if he can remain healthy for 65 or more games.
Canadiens Getting Closer to Playoffs
If the rest of the lineup maintains their previous scoring pace, the Canadiens should be able to score 255 goals this season. This would allow them to climb from 26th in the NHL for scoring to 21st. Of course, there will still be some injuries, possibly even trades, that will impact on the team, but that shouldn’t change the projection too much.
Because most of the roster is under 25 years old, is still developing, and has yet to reach their prime, a player could suddenly take a leap forward in their progression and boost the team’s goals scored and make the Canadiens even more competitive. A player like Dach, for instance, is poised for a breakout year.
Scoring 255 goals might be a modest increase from last season’s 227, but the fact is that 255 ends up as an average of 3.04 GF/G, which is up from 2.77 GF/G. This could have a significant impact on the team’s place in the standings. Even if there is no improvement on defense, the goal increase and improved health should equal more wins.
Last season, the Canadiens had a 31-45-6 record. Of those 45 losses, many were by one goal. If this expected increase in goal production leads to just five more wins and five more overtime losses, that is an added 15 points. They would be able to have a season record of 36-35-11 and end above .500 (the first time since the 2021 COVID-19-shortened season) with a point total of 83. While that leaves them nine points back of the 92 points the Florida Panthers needed to sneak into the final playoff spot, and likely near the cellar of the Atlantic Division, it does point to a Canadiens team on the rise and could keep them within sight of a playoff spot well into March.
