After a promising postseason run, the Dallas Stars died with a whimper against the Edmonton Oilers in a 2-1 defeat in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final. It is the second time in their last two playoff runs that they have won 10 of the 16 required contests to win the Stanley Cup.
Outclassed by a strong Oilers team and with 39-year-old veteran leader Joe Pavelski likely retiring in the offseason, the Stars might think about making a big change. However, this would be a mistake. They have everything they need in the organization—it’s about putting it all together and getting one postseason run where everything goes right.
Stars Have Everything in Place to Win
The Stars will need to make some decisions this offseason, such as how much they want to pay defenseman Thomas Harley on his next contract, whether or not they wish to extend Wyatt Johnston a season early, which free agents they want to bring back, and how they’re going to replace Pavelski. Still, they’re in a good spot. Minus Harley, all of their top-notch players are under contract for at least next season, so Dallas can comfortably run it back in 2024-25 with a fairly similar core to what they had in 2023-24.
Related: Projecting Thomas Harley’s Next Contract with the Dallas Stars
Having the best record in the Western Conference, the Stars are essentially a lock for the postseason if they have their top players. As long as they manage their salary cap well moving forward, they should be able to keep their major core in place for the long-term future. Suppose they can prioritize keeping players like Jason Robertson, Johnston, Logan Stankoven, Harley, and Jake Oettinger, and hang onto Roope Hintz and Miro Heiskanen who already have big deals. In that case, they have no business not being Stanley Cup contenders for years to come.
If the Stars keep their high-end talent, they will be a playoff team. As long as they are a playoff team—especially one that is high-end—they’ll always have the hope of bringing the Stanley Cup back to Dallas for the first time since 1999. If the Stars keep being a tough matchup for their opponents in the postseason, they should win a championship at some point. Consistently dominant teams that always seemingly came up short on the biggest stage like the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning proved this. Even with all of their failures, they inevitably came up clutch.
For the Stars, the goal is simple: stay the course, and your fortunes could turn around someday. Considering how young many of their top players are, patience will be necessary. When the time is right, the odds are that they break through if they don’t do anything drastic.
Stars’ Young Forwards Can Boost Their Upside
We touched on it briefly, but the Stars’ young talent should only help them improve. Their game has relied on their elite depth for their past two seasons, but it’s likely for that to fade a bit down the line. However, that’s not entirely a bad thing. Dallas has several young, promising players who could take the leap into stardom at some point soon—this is the key to unlocking their upside.
An understandable worry about the Stars is that they don’t have a true superstar. Robertson and Heiskanen certainly come close, but they aren’t on the same level as players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who eliminated them from the postseason in 2024. Playing responsible, low-scoring hockey isn’t always going to fly. Dallas needs to be able to outscore their problems sometimes—that’s where the young guns come in.
In just his age-20 season, Johnston had 32 goals and 33 assists for 65 points. In the playoffs, he scored 16 points in 19 games, emerging as one of Dallas’ most valuable players. However, most players will reach their ceiling by the time they turn 26 or 27. For the youngster to be able to score like he has despite having a good five or six seasons before he should reach his absolute best, what does that say? The implication here is that, potentially, Johnston could be a top-end player. Adding another elite first-line player to the team will make the Stars just that much more formidable.
Stankoven, 21, seems to have this trajectory, as well. He spent most of his 2023-24 campaign in the American Hockey League (AHL) and didn’t quite put up the same numbers as Johnston once he did reach the NHL, but it’s important to realize that Johnston is the outlier. Based on the eye test when he did enter the Stars’ lineup, Stankoven was incredible and a difference-maker right away. Similar to his young colleague, things should only go up from here. Including the postseason, he had nine goals and 13 assists for 22 points in 43 contests. If he consistently finds his groove, other teams won’t know what to do with Dallas.
A somewhat overlooked player, Mavrik Bourque, also possesses a top-six upside. The 22-year-old put up an incredible 88 points in 78 AHL games including the postseason, making him a promising young athlete. He only appeared in two contests with the Stars, but chances are he should have a full-time role with them in 2024-25. Once he gets more comfortable with the demands of the NHL, Dallas could have so many brilliant players on offense that they won’t know what to do with them. Solely internally, the Stars are looking good as it is.
It’s certainly frustrating to see the Stars come so close in back-to-back seasons yet ultimately come away with nothing, but they have a good core. Building up a team is easy; winning with them is not. If the Stars choose to keep their team intact for the long term, the future might just treat them kindly.
