With the 2017 expansion draft looming large, general managers from around the NHL will start looking to make deals. If not, these teams risk losing some of their top talents that they could not afford to retain. In New Jersey, the problem is quite different; the team should not be concerned about losing any noteworthy forward and has a pretty straightforward decision to make.
The Rules of the Draft
In order to understand the Devils’ position, it is important to look at the rules of the expansion draft. Put simply, teams have the option of retaining seven forwards, three defenders and a goalie, or eight skaters and a goalie. All players with no movement clauses will need to be protected unless they agree to be left unprotected – which for all intents and purposes will not happen. Players with two or fewer years of experience are automatically protected.
There are also minimum requirements for players left exposed when the Vegas Golden Knights begin forming their roster. First, teams need to make available one full-time NHL defenseman and two such forwards who are under contract in 2017-18. In addition, each team needs to expose a goalie who is either under contract for 2017-18 or is a tendered restricted free agent.
The first thing that may come to mind when looking at these rules is Ryane Clowe. The Canadian-born forward was signed to a 5-year pact in 2013 but has not dressed for a game since 2015 because of concussions. His contract comes with a no-movement clause so theoretically he needs to be retained. That was the case until Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reported that Clowe is expected to be exempt from this NMC protection rule.
That leaves the Devils with two major options, the 7-3-1 or the 8-1 plan. Presumably, the latter choice makes sense for teams with a glut of talented defensemen, like Anaheim or Nashville. For the Devils, that is far from the case. The 7-3-1 plan seems to make more sense for New Jersey and is ultimately more aligned with the team’s strengths.
Whom to Protect?
The most important decision left is deciding on whom is too valuable to leave exposed. Given the Devils’ current roster, it will be least contentious to start from the net and move up the ice.
At goalie, the decision is abundantly clear. Cory Schneider is an elite goalie in the NHL and, despite Keith Kinkaid’s quietly strong 2016-17 campaign, there is no question who the top dog is in New Jersey. Schneider is a monumental part of today’s Devils and, at 30 years old, has plenty of good seasons left. (Note: in order for the Devils to comply with league rules, they will need to tender and expose Scott Wedgewood.)
Defense
On to the defense, the Devils have just five blueliners who could be protected in the expansion draft: Andy Greene, Damon Severson, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, and Jon Merrill. Of that group, Greene and Severson are no-brainers to stay on board, the former for his leadership and superb defensive play and the latter for his scoring breakout this season.
On to the defense, the Devils have just five blueliners who could be protected in the expansion draft: Andy Greene, Damon Severson, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, and Jon Merrill. Of that group, Greene and Severson are no-brainers to stay on board, the former for his leadership and superb defensive play and the latter for his scoring breakout this season.
The decision now focuses on whom to protect among Merrill, Moore, and Lovejoy. Pretty clearly, Merrill is the least talented of the three and has been a healthy scratch numerous times over the first quarter of the season. Assuming Merrill is exposed, that leaves one more reserved spot for either Ben Lovejoy or John Moore.
Players like Lovejoy are a dime a dozen, but it’s worth wondering if general manager Ray Shero may see his Pittsburgh ties with Lovejoy as grounds to retain him. If he does, it would be to the detriment of the team, who would be essentially giving up on John Moore in what looks like a comeback season for the young blueliner. Based on talent, Moore is the clear choice to stick around, but based on loyalty and experience, Lovejoy could be the retained one.
Forwards
Finally, Shero will need to decide on the base of the forward corps. Because he chose not to retain four defensemen, Shero can protect up to seven forwards. The Devils have just eight forwards signed next season and two of them will need to be exposed in order to comply with league rules.
Of course, there are some clear candidates who should not be left exposed. Taylor Hall headlines that list and Adam Henrique and Kyle Palmieri are similar young talents signed at an affordable rate for the next few years. Exposing any of them would be completely foolish.
Travis Zajac and Michael Cammalleri form their own group based on age and the fact that both players will likely begin to reach overpaid territory before their contracts expire. However, they have both been major contributors to the Devils’ offense this season and are first and third on the team in points per game.
It may be prudent for Shero to test the waters on the two before they start regressing and become dead weight on the books, but the reality is that this team is too devoid of scoring talent to give up on its top assets for potential future savings.
If none of these players are made available, that means that Shero will need to expose both Beau Bennett and Devante Smith-Pelly. Neither player has proven much in 2016-17, but with third-line minutes and limited special teams time, it’s easy to see why neither player is on pace for a 30-point season.
A Unique Position
In sum, the Devils would use their seven retentions on Hall, Henrique, Palmieri, Zajac, Cammalleri, Joseph Blandisi, and Jacob Josefson.
Should Shero want to keep either of those two players, he would need to extend and expose one of the following: P.A. Parenteau, Vern Fiddler or Jacob Josefson. Managers may struggle to get a player to agree to such an ominous extension, but for a player like Josefson, that may be his only chance at another contract.
The Devils are in a unique position; whereas other teams are sweating over which players to protect and how to fit all these decisions within the set of rules and regulations, the Devils are hard pressed to find players to retain. That’s not to say that New Jersey is in such dire straits that it lacks worthwhile talent. The team is young and there are few who need to be retained, leaving the Devils in relatively healthy shape heading into June.