It was recently reported by Bob Stauffer on Oilers Now that former Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland was unwilling to move both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway in a trade for St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich last season. Additionally, Holland did not listen to the Oilers’ upper management’s desire to extend Broberg and Holloway during their 2023-24 runs in the AHL with the Bakersfield Condors due to the likely discounted prices. Now the Blues may get the two young skaters they sought for just a second and third-round pick through offer sheets. While Holland is no longer with the Oilers, his refusal to listen to upper management may haunt the team with many “what ifs”.
What a Buchnevich Trade Would Have Looked Like
With Buchnevich extended to a six-year contract worth $48 million in St. Louis, a trade is now off the table. However, it should be no surprise the Oilers had strong interest, and it was known the Blues were shopping the star, two-way winger. While Stauffer’s report the Blues sought both Holloway and Broberg makes sense, there would have been additional assets necessary to complete a trade.
Assuming a Buchnevich trade would have replaced the Adam Henrique acquisition, the Oilers 2024 first-round pick would have been included. This is fitting since the reported asking price for Buchnevich was two first-round picks, with no team, including the Oilers, evidently never meeting these demands.
Given the offer sheets, it can be inferred the Blues believe Broberg to be worth more than a second-round pick and Holloway to be worth more than a third-round pick. From here, the two skaters, in addition to a 2024 first-round pick, would have framed the blueprint of the trade.
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Additionally, Edmonton would have sought depth forwards, with Sammy Blais and Nathan Walker being names that come to mind. Either of these forwards could have replaced Sam Carrick, who was acquired by the Anaheim Ducks in the Henrique deal.
As a result of this trade, the Oilers’ 2024 offseason free agency plans would have changed. The team let go of Warren Foegele and traded Ryan McLeod, two moves that would have likely occurred regardless. The team also signed Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. While Skinner seemed intent on joining Edmonton, Buchnevich would have likely replaced Arvidsson given his contract status.
How Buchnevich Would Have Fit
Buchnevich is an elite left winger who has spent time on both sides of the ice throughout his career. There is no weakness in his game, and throughout his career with the Blues and New York Rangers, he has been deployed in all situations. Given his offensive prowess, the Oilers would have played him in the top six, likely alongside Leon Draisaitl on the second line.
Buchnevich would have also been a mainstay on the Oilers penalty kill. While one would think he would have been a useful addition in the playoffs given the Oilers league-average 79.46 penalty kill success rate during the regular season, the team led the league with a 94.29 success rate in the playoffs, likely rendering Buchnevich’s potential contributions useless during the Oilers’ 2024 Stanley Cup Final run.
However, Buchnevich would have been a valuable contributor at even strength. In the 2024 playoffs, the Oilers’ fifth leading point-producing forward was Mattias Janmark (eight points in 25 games). As well, only four skaters finished with more than 15 minutes of average ice time (Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman). These are two areas Buchnevich would have been a valuable addition, especially at even strength.
During the 2023-24 regular season, Buchnevich finished with a 53.2 goals percentage (G%) at even strength. During the playoffs, the Oilers had just five forwards finish above this value, and six lineup regulars finished with a 50% or lower G%. Had Buchnevich been in the lineup during the Stanley Cup Final, he could have been the difference maker, especially in Game 3.
Of course, this is all speculation and a massive “what if,” but it is interesting to note how Holland’s refusal to move Broberg and Holloway at the 2024 Trade Deadline for Buchnevich has come around to hurt the Oilers just months later. Had he pulled the trigger on a deal of this sort, the Oilers would not only have had a stronger forward core during the Stanley Cup run but also recieved full value on two young skaters who they may now lose for very little.
