The Edmonton Oilers are expected to be a great team this season, and they impressed at times last season, but not every team can live up to expectations. Some clubs may suffer injuries that throw their season off, or bad bounces derail a season. Even with two of the best players in the league on the Oilers, they missed the playoffs in 2017-18 and 2018-19. The Oilers don’t necessarily need everything firing at once, but they do need a team effort and production throughout the lineup. In a more gloomy look at what could happen this season, these are the worst-case scenarios for the Oilers in 2023-24.
Failed Broberg Trade
Some people have been calling for the Oilers to trade Philip Broberg over the past year. His development might not be as fast as some, but he is far from a bust. The young defenseman is just 22 years old and hasn’t gotten many minutes that are more than what a sixth/seventh defenseman would get in the NHL. This should finally be the season where he steps up and shows everyone the type of player he is with ice time and mentorship.
What I’m hoping doesn’t happen, but could, is the Oilers trade him. They are in win-now mode and can’t be throwing away seasons if players aren’t performing. They have done a good job clearing out players who haven’t contributed over the past couple of years. If the defense pairings are going to allow Broberg to play beside Mattias Ekholm, he should do well. There is always the chance that he doesn’t, though. If he has a tough start and there are good options to trade for at the trade deadline, general manager Ken Holland may very well take it; the Oilers do have a couple of promising defensive prospects after Broberg.
If Broberg’s trade value drops because of a tough first half in a favourable spot in the lineup, the Oilers won’t get as much value back in a deal. The worst-case scenario here is that he breaks out on a new team because of a new situation/opportunity given to him. This would be similar to what happened with the Toronto Maple Leafs trading Rasmus Sandin at last season’s trade deadline. Sure, they got some value, but Sandin immediately broke out. Losing another recent high first-round pick would hurt the organization.
Oilers Miss the Playoffs
One of the worst things to imagine for the Oilers this season is them missing the playoffs entirely. Sure, a first or second-round loss would be disappointing, but at least they would have been able to hold things together for the entire regular season.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have proven what they are capable of when it comes to the playoffs. If the Oilers get there, anything is possible. They are two of the most dominant players of all time already when it comes to playoff production. Not giving them a chance to even carry the Oilers again would be very disappointing, and there would be changes somewhere.
Related: Predicting Every Edmonton Oilers Game of 2023-24
The Oilers are not only expected to make the playoffs, but they have the caliber of players and team that could lead the league in goals and power-play percentage again, win their division, win the Presidents’ Trophy, and even win the Stanley Cup. With McDavid and Draisaitl coming up on needing contract extensions in the next couple of years, missing playoffs would hurt the Oilers’ chances, and the team needs both for the long haul.
Oilers Are Forced to Deal With Another Serious Injury
I wouldn’t say the Oilers have any injury-prone players on their team, but injuries happen. Examples of injury-prone players would be Patrik Laine, Nathan MacKinnon, or Cale Makar, who are really impactful but struggle to ever play a full season. No player on the Oilers struggles to get into every game, but they do have two players on their roster who dealt with major injuries last season.
Evander Kane’s injury was a freak accident, and I don’t expect something like that to happen again, but he did miss 41 games and had a hard time getting back to the level he was at before. Connor Brown missed all but the first four games of last season. Even though he is healthy now and hasn’t had an injury of that severity before that, you never know which player that can happen to.
Other than Kane, who missed half of last season and both Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway, who missed some time, the team stayed healthy. It wasn’t a massive hit to them, but it could have been. If one of the top players on the team suffers a random injury that keeps them out long-term, it could change a lot. It will throw off chemistry and the line, as well as potentially the power play and penalty kill.
Campbell Doesn’t Bounce Back
Jack Campbell didn’t have the start anyone in the Edmonton organization wanted. He was signed to a five-year, $5 million AAV deal and lost the starting job. It got to the point where, even after pulling Stuart Skinner four times in the playoffs, the coaching staff still decided to play the rookie over Campbell. The veteran netminder has shown perseverance and played well in relief in the playoffs as well as played great in the preseason action this season (from “Nugent-Bowman: Jack Campbell has earned the right to start opening night for the Oilers”, The Athletic, Oct. 7, 2023).
Relief and preseason are one thing. If the Oilers can’t get a good season out of Campbell and see him bounce back, they will be in a very tough spot. There is lots of optimism that he can get back to an acceptable level, but also the fear that he may not be able to.
Campbell posted a .888 save percentage (SV%) last season, while Skinner finished with a .913 SV%. Sure, the Oilers can count on their young goalie again, who now has valuable regular season and playoff experience, but they have to then deal with a $5 million AAV backup who is struggling. The only way to clear that much-needed cap would be to dump him, and that would cost a first-round selection, at the very least, a pick the Oilers could otherwise use to acquire deadline help or fill their weaker prospect pool.
Nobody knows exactly how this season is going to go for the Oilers. Any number of things can happen. But what no fan, player, or anyone in the organization wants to see is any of these worst-case scenarios coming true.
