We have our first major deal ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, and it’s a whopper. Late last night, the Calgary Flames connected on a trade that sent Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks. In return, the Flames received Andrei Kuzmenko, as well as some futures. Here are the full details:
There’s no extension for Lindholm, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, at least for now. Meanwhile, the Flames seem to be getting started on what’ll at least be a soft rebuild, something they’ve needed for quite some time. Let’s hand out grades for each side.
Canucks Get Their 2C
The Canucks have been one of the NHL’s surprise teams this season. At the time of the trade, they led the Pacific Division with 71 points and a 33-11-5 record, placing them seven points ahead of the second-place Vegas Golden Knights. They look like a legit Stanley Cup contender, so it’s not surprising they went big ahead of the deadline.
Lindholm was not having the best season of his career, with just nine goals and 32 points in 49 games at the time of the trade. Some of that is bad luck; he’s a 12.1 percent career shooter but is shooting just 6.9 percent. Still, there are some red flags with his game.
Lindholm’s play has been worth expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of minus-7.1, a bottom 10 number in the NHL among all forwards. His expected goals share (xG%) of 44.7 percent ranked among the worst for Flames skaters this season. In simpler terms, the Flames were better off when he was on the bench than when he was on the ice.
As JFresh put it on Twitter, Lindholm is not a great play driver. He needs to be with high-end passers and puck movers to thrive, which was not the case in Calgary, at least since Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk departed. A look at his microstats for this season shows that to be the case, too:
Lindholm’s passing stats have not graded out well this season. Nor has he fared well in transition, as he ranks below the 40th percentile in zone exits and the 21st percentile in zone entries. The good news is his shooting ability tracks well, suggesting his shooting luck should bounce back.
While there are some red flags in Lindholm’s game, he should have much different usage with the Canucks than he did with the Flames. The key will be pairing him with the right linemates to make up for some of his flaws, perhaps with Elias Pettersson on his wing. If so, he can be successful.
Related: Canucks Acquire Elias Lindholm From Flames
As far as what the Canucks gave up, Kuzmenko had fallen out of favor with coach Rick Tocchet, but he’s still a solid middle-six forward. Hunter Brzustewicz has broken out in the OHL with 69 points in 47 games and looks like a legitimate prospect.
Joni Jurmo might be a depth player if he makes the NHL, but he seems like a long shot, so I don’t think that’s much of a loss for the Canucks. They also handed over their first-round pick in 2024, plus a conditional fourth-rounder in 2024. The Canucks better hope Lindholm’s struggles don’t carry over to Vancouver, which is not a given, because they gave up quite a bit. That’s why I’m not 100 percent sold on this pickup.
Canucks Grade: B-
Flames Begin Their Retool
It’s clear the Flames have needed a retool for a while, and it looks like general manager Craig Conroy is ready to reshape his roster. Trading Lindholm seems unlikely to be Conroy’s last move before the March 8 trade deadline, but he’s off to a good start.
Kuzmenko has regressed from a season ago when he scored 39 goals and shot a whopping 27.3 percent. It’s not surprising he’s regressed, as that’s a shooting percentage too high to sustain. Still, there’s reason to believe a fresh start and a bigger role in Calgary can get him going again.
Flames fans shouldn’t expect Kuzmenko to total 39 goals, especially since he’s not a high-volume shooter. But he could become a 20-goal, 40-plus-point player for them if they use him properly. He’s under contract through next season at a cap hit of $5.5 million, so the Flames have some time to get him right.
Brzustewicz is a real kicker for the Flames. Even though he was a third-round pick in the 2023 draft, he already looks like he could overperform his draft slot. He’s on pace for 98 points in the OHL this season and has been one of the best defensemen in that league.
Jurmo was a third-round pick in 2020 but has yet to play on North American ice. He’s spent the last three seasons in the Liiga, Finland’s top pro league. He has good size at 6-foot-5, 209 pounds, and appears to skate well for someone with his frame. I’m not sure he’ll amount to much in the NHL, but it doesn’t hurt taking a flyer on him.
To recap, the Flames received a potential middle-six contributor (Kuzmenko), a legit prospect (Brzustewicz), and an additional first-round pick they could flip into another asset if they so choose. Could they have gotten more? Perhaps, but I’m not as high on Lindholm as others seem to be. I think it was fair value in the end.
Flames Grade: B+
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Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick
