On the same day that Sergei Bobrovsky, Henrik Lundqvist, and Antti Niemi were announced as finalists for the 2012-13 Vezina Trophy, I’m presenting a new kind of goalie award, the Most Valuable Goaltender of the Year, to Evgeni Nabokov of the New York Islanders. This honor is based on a single statistically-driven question: Which starting keeper was the biggest difference-maker for his team?
Despite this article’s lofty title, Most Valuable Goaltender of the Year isn’t a true replacement for the Vezina. For that, I’d pick Bobrovsky. Instead, it’s a simple, important honor, and as you’ll see, a useful supplement for selecting the sport’s top netminder. For example, it confirmed my initial suspicion that I’d nominate Nabokov over Carey Price or Tuukka Rask, to name two popular candidates, on my fictitious Vezina ballot.
The value of a team’s Starter versus their Overall Backup (all backups together) is measured by Most Valuable Goalie Points (MVG Points). Starter MVG Points are derived from the sum of Save Percentage and Points Earned Differentials (between Starter and Overall Backup). Save Percentage is a fair in-team comparable because the Starter and Overall Backup perform behind roughly the same teammates; Points Earned also judges internal productivity with similar teammates. Starter MVG Points are then compared throughout the league.
The goalie who began the season starting will be designated team Starter. Of course, some of those plans were derailed in this breakneck sprint of a year by injuries or ineffective play.
Anyway, here’s the complete Most Valuable Goaltender of the Year list for 2012-13. Let me be the first ever to start up the chant, “MVG! MVG! MVG!”
|
TEAM |
STARTER (SAVE %) (POINTS EARNED) OVERALL BACKUP (GOALIES) (SAVE %) (POINTS EARNED) |
SAVE % DIFFERENTIAL (STARTER SAVE % – OVERALL BACK UP SAVE %) |
POINTS EARNED DIFFERENTIAL (STARTER POINTS EARNED – OVERALL BACKUP POINTS EARNED) |
STARTER MVG POINTS ( (SAVE % DIFFERENTIAL * 1000) + POINTS EARNED DIFFERENTIAL) |
|
|
1 |
NYI |
Evgeni Nabokov (.910) (53) Overall Backup (Kevin Poulin, Rick DiPietro) (.878) (2) |
+.032 |
51 |
83 |
|
2 |
DET |
Jimmy Howard (.923) (49) Overall Backup (Jonas Gustavsson, Petr Mrazek) (.890) (7) |
+.033 |
42 |
75 |
|
3 |
CBJ |
Sergei Bobrovsky (.932 ) (48) Overall Backup (Steve Mason) (.899) (7)
|
+.033 |
41 |
74 |
|
4 |
NAS |
Pekka Rinne (.910) (38) Overall Backup (Chris Mason) (.873) (3)
|
+.037 |
35 |
72 |
|
5 |
MIN |
Niklas Backstrom (.909) (51) Overall Backup (Darcy Kuemper, Josh Harding, Matt Hackett) (.889) (4) |
+.020 |
47 |
67 |
|
6 |
SJ |
Antti Niemi (.924) (54) Overall Backup (Thomas Greiss, Alex Stalock) (.910) (3) |
+.014 |
51 |
65 |
|
7 |
NYR |
Henrik Lundqvist (.926) (51) Overall Backup (Martin Biron) (.917) (5) |
+.009 |
46 |
55 |
|
8 |
WSH |
Braden Holtby (.920) (47) Overall Backup (Michal Neuvirth, Philipp Grubauer) (.911) (10) |
+.009 |
37 |
46 |
|
9 |
DAL |
Kari Lehtonen (.916) (33) Overall Backup (Richard Bachman, Cristopher Nilstorp) (.889) (15) |
+.027 |
18 |
45 |
|
10 |
WIN |
Ondrej Pavelec (.905) (45) Overall Backup (Al Montoya) (.899) (6) |
+.006 |
39 |
45 |
|
11 |
TOR |
James Reimer (.924) (43) Overall Backup (Ben Scrivens, Jussi Rynnas) (.916) (14) |
+.008 |
29 |
37 |
|
12 |
VAN |
Cory Schneider (.927) (38) Overall Backup (Roberto Luongo) (.907) (21)
|
+.020 |
17 |
37 |
|
13 |
NJ |
Martin Brodeur (.901) (33) Overall Backup (Johan Hedberg, Jeff Frazee, Keith Kinkaid) (.885) (15)
|
+.016 |
18 |
34 |
|
14 |
BOS |
Tuukka Rask (.929) (43) Overall Backup (Anton Khudobin) (.920) (19)
|
+.009 |
24 |
33 |
|
NHL Average |
+.006 |
21 |
27 |
||
|
15 |
MTL |
Carey Price (.905) (46) Overall Backup (Peter Budaj) (.908) (17) |
-.003 |
29 |
26 |
|
16 |
BUF |
Ryan Miller (.915) (39) Overall Backup (Jhonas Enroth) (.919) (9)
|
-.004 |
30 |
26 |
|
17 |
EDM |
Devan Dubnyk (.920) (34) Overall Backup (Nikolai Khabibulin, Yann Danis) (.917) (11)
|
+.003 |
23 |
26 |
|
18 |
PIT |
Marc-Andre Fleury (.916) (46) Overall Backup (Tomas Vokoun) (.919) (26)
|
-.003 |
20 |
17 |
|
19 |
CHI |
Corey Crawford (.926) (43) Overall Backup (Ray Emery, Carter Hutton) (.920) (34)
|
+.006 |
9 |
15 |
|
20 |
PHI |
Ilya Bryzgalov (.900) (41) Overall Backup (Steve Mason, Brian Boucher, Michael Leighton) (.922) ( 8) |
-.022 |
33 |
11 |
|
21 |
OTT |
Craig Anderson (.941) (26) Overall Backup (Robin Lehner, Ben Bishop) (.930) (30) |
+.011 |
-4 |
7 |
|
22 |
COL |
Semyon Varlamov (.903) (25) Overall Backup (Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Sami Aittokallio) (.909) (14) |
-.006 |
11 |
5 |
|
23 |
CAR |
Cam Ward (.908) (19) Overall Backup (Dan Ellis, Justin Peters) (.899) (23) |
+.009 |
-4 |
5 |
|
24 |
LAK |
Jonathan Quick (.902) (40) Overall Backup (Jonathan Bernier) (.922) (19) |
-.020 |
21 |
1 |
|
25 |
TB |
Anders Lindback (.902) (21) Overall Backup (Mathieu Garon, Ben Bishop, Cedrick Desjardins) (.904) (19)
|
-.002 |
2 |
0 |
|
26 |
PHO |
Mike Smith (.910) (35) Overall Backup (Jason LaBarbera, Chad Johnson) (.930) (16)
|
-.020 |
19 |
-1 |
|
27 |
ANA |
Jonas Hiller (.913) (34) Overall Backup (Viktor Fasth) (.921) (32)
|
-.008 |
2 |
-6 |
|
28 |
FLA |
Jose Theodore (.893) (11) Overall Backup (Jacob Markstrom, Scott Clemmensen) (.891) (25)
|
+.002 |
-14 |
-12 |
|
29 |
CAL |
Miikka Kiprusoff (.882) (18) Overall Backup (Joey MacDonald, Leland Irving, Daniel Taylor) (.900) (24)
|
-.018 |
-6 |
-24 |
|
30 |
STL |
Jaroslav Halak (.899) (13) Overall Backup (Brian Elliott, Jake Allen) (.906) (47) |
-.007 |
-34 |
–41 |