Carolina Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis has been a key piece within their top six since making his debut early in the 2021-22 campaign. He provided an immediate impact during his rookie season producing 40 points (17 goals, 23 assists) in 68 games played. Despite playing in all 82 games this past season, he finished with 39 points (14 goals, 25 assists) when many expected his production to skyrocket. I believe that a deeper look at the numbers gives reason to believe that he is destined for a breakout performance this season.
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Let’s take a look at a few reasons why I expect Jarvis to make a big jump in his third season under the leadership of head coach Rod Brind’Amour.
Jarvis Due For Better Finishing Luck
Despite playing in 14 more games and seeing a nearly three-minute improvement in time on ice this past season, Jarvis was unable to improve on his rookie season numbers. He finished with an expected goals total of 25.2, but only found the back of the net 14 times giving him a minus-11.4 difference in goals versus expected goals. He has flashed strong finishing at times during his young career, so I would be shocked if we didn’t see him improve on his goal-scoring in the 2023-24 season.
If Jarvis is able to have some better luck early in the season, I truly believe he could end up with over 30 goals this season. His linemates Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho both had their first 30-goal season in their third full season in Raleigh. I would not be surprised at all if he follows suit and has his breakout season alongside Aho and Svechnikov.
Flashes of Stardom
Another reason to believe that Jarvis will have a breakout season is the glimpses of stardom he showed at times during his 2022-23 campaign. The key moment was his first career hat trick during a Feb. 16, 6-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens. That performance ended a long scoring drought and appeared to be what he needed to gain some momentum and get back to producing at a higher rate. But it was not to be, as he only scored three more goals after that game.
Jarvis also showed up when it mattered most last season during the Hurricanes’ playoff run. In his 15 postseason games, he produced 10 points (five goals, five assists). That goal production over an 82-game season would put him at a little over 27 goals scored, and with the higher intensity of play during the postseason, there’s no reason to believe he couldn’t build off that momentum and put together a 30-goal season in 2023-24.
Look for Jarvis to be more consistent this season and attempt to limit the droughts in offensive production. If he’s able to do that, the sky is truly the limit for the 5-foot-10, 175-pound forward.
More Power Play Production
The last reason why I believe Jarvis will have a big season in 2023-24 is I expect him to have an increase in power play scoring. This past season he finished with five points (zero goals, five assists) on the power play. I expect his shooting percentage to be much higher than last season’s 7.5 percent and be a key factor in him showcasing his finishing ability when the Hurricanes are on the man advantage. I also expect the team to improve its power play percentage this season which should lead to Jarvis converting on a few more power play scoring opportunities.
The performance of Jarvis will be a key storyline to follow once the NHL season gets underway in a few months. As the Hurricanes continue their hunt for their first Stanley Cup since 2006, it is of the utmost importance for him to make a leap in 2023-24 if they expect to contend again this season.
