If there’s anyone that would like to forget the first half of the 2023-24 season, it’s definitely Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Ilya Samsonov.
Coming off his best season and being a big factor why the Maple Leafs won their first playoff round since 2004, Samsonov was mired in poor starts, letting in weak goals and really couldn’t be counted on in net. When the calendar flipped to 2024, he was put on waivers to try and get back on track and was called up weeks later.
While many questioned whether or not the stint would work, Samsonov is proving that the time down in the minors to work with Hannu Toivonen is paying off. In the short term, he’s been outstanding since being called back up. From being at the lowest point in his career, Samsonov has rebounded and is giving his team a chance to win every game. If there was any point that he needed to get back on track, it was now and as his resurging play is happening at a critical time of the season.
Samsonov’s Season by the Numbers
To put it bluntly, Samsonov’s start to the 2023-24 season wasn’t pretty. Before he was sent down, his stats had him down towards the bottom of the league in regards to goalies who have played in at least 10 games.
His .862 save percentage and 3.94 goals against average were second-last in the league. He’s had a SV% below .900 10 times during that span and his numbers in different areas on the ice was concerning as well. This breakdown from NHL EDGE shows that Samsonov’s struggles in both the middle of the ice and in the high danger area.
Overall, his high danger save percentage and mid-range save percentage haven’t been great, as he has a .770 and .872 respectively, per NHL EDGE. He’s had a hard time not only to keep the puck out when things got hectic near the goal, but he couldn’t make simple saves when the puck was nowhere being a high percentage shot. Nothing was worse than his outing against the Buffalo Sabres where he was fighting with himself in that game.
“I need to figure out everything in my head. It’s not about technique. It’s not about nothing. Just in the head,” Samsonov said according to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox.
“Just about mental spot.”
The position once again became weak for the Maple Leafs. His mindset and game were completely brittle at that point as it was followed by another poor performance, an overtime loss against the Columbus Blue Jackets. His play forced general manager Brad Treliving to make a tough but necessary move and put him on waivers in the hopes of trying to get his game back on track. There were even talks of trading him as well when the struggles started to show.
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Since then, Samsonov has looked much better and consistent. Here’s a breakdown at all strengths before (min. 600 minutes) and after (min. 100 minutes) being put on waivers.
| Category | Samsonov Before Waivers | Samsonov After Waivers |
| SV% | .862 (57th) | .939 (7th) |
| GAA | 3.94 (57th) | 1.48 (4th) |
| GSAA | -15.40 (56th) | 3.23 (14th) |
| HDSV% | .745 (52nd) | .880 (11th) |
While it’s a small sample with Samsonov’s game since returning, his numbers on the right are more like the Samsonov fans were used to seeing last season. In two of the four categories, he’s in the top-10 and just outside of that range in HDSV%. Much of that is linked to his overall play which is a complete 180 from what we saw in the first three months. After Martin Jones overtook his spot in the lineup, Samsonov has reclaimed it.
Breaking Down Samsonov’s Play
The biggest difference between pre and post waivers Samsonov, is his calming presence in the crease. Before, we saw the over aggressive tendencies and movement that plagued him when he was with the Washington Capitals. He improved on that tremendously last season, but got away from him for the better part of this season. When he’s calm, dialled in and tracking the puck well, he’s tough to crack.
Samsonov said the biggest thing for him now is being more confident in his play, relaxed and quicker in net without being too aggressive. Now head coach, Sheldon Keefe has someone to rely on in net as the trust factor is once again evident. (from, “Samsonov ‘quicker,’ relaxed as Maple Leafs goalie returns to form”, Toronto Sun – 01/26/24)
Since his return against the Detroit Red Wings, Samsonov has got better each game, looking better than the last. He has made a number of 10-bell, highlight reel saves during that span, denying opponents in any way possible. Here’s one in his second game against the Seattle Kraken.
Samsonov’s movement has always come into question, either being too quick or too slow with his lateral movement. There was a good amount of traffic in front of him and as the play was developing from the corner. McMann comes out and makes a nice cross seam pass to Justin Schultz. As Schultz wires a one-time shot, Samsonov was able to get over at the right moment to stick out his right pad and deny him of a goal. What was even better was his ability to locate the puck and negate any rebound opportunity, as that has also come into question.
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It was a big time stop for Samsonov, but this one against a tougher Winnipeg Jets opponent tops that.
There were a number of saves here, but the first one was sensational. The Maple Leafs were getting completely outplayed and after an awful breakdown and line change, the Jets were able to get a 2-on-0. Many thought the outcome was going to be a goal but, Samsonov made not one, but two massive stops. One on the initial shot and another one on the rebound. His relaxed mentality showed he didn’t panic, stayed in position and tracked the puck very well. He bailed out the top power play unit and managed to stand tall as a result. Moments later, chants for Samsonov started echoing throughout the arena and he nearly cried at the support from the fans.
Samsonov’s Redemption Arc
While Samsonov needs more games and more of a larger sample size, you can’t help but feel happy to see him back and on top of his game. When players go through adversity you want to root for them every step of the way. Much like protagonists in a movie or novel, they have those moments where if they fail, they come back stronger than ever.
Samsonov’s season had a lot of lows to this point. For him to turn things around shows he’s in his redemption arc and isn’t looking back. He continues to take things game by game and in the process continues to rise above it all.
Statistics from NHL, Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick.
