In this post, I’m going to look at the eight Toronto Maple Leafs defensemen who have played for the team this season. I’ll leave out John Klingberg, whose season was cut short with an injury. To engage in these rankings, I’m relying on a system of analytics developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn.
While I won’t go into the genesis of the system now, I’ll share just a note about how it works. It was developed in 2016 and has evolved to use what he calls a “Net Rating.” In this rating, existing data is crunched to create an “all-in-one player value stat” that’s based on each player’s Offensive and Defensive Rating. (from “NHL Player Cards: Atlantic Division, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic, 01/28/2024).
These analytics-based player values are then shaped into information that makes up each player’s “player card,” which shows “statistically how strong each player’s ratings are on and off the puck, a weighted combination of their production (goals, assists, expected goals, blocks, penalty differential) and their play-driving (on-ice expected and actual goal stats). It also shows each player’s market value based on their on-ice value.”
Interestingly, these cards show both how a player is performing this season and how he’s expected to finish the season. The information is pro-rated to 82 games, and then a forecast is created based on regression analysis over the past three seasons. These cards are updated daily after five NHL games have been played the night before.
Analytical Ratings for Toronto Maple Leafs Defensemen
Here, you can see the analyzed data of each Maple Leafs’ defenseman based on his comprehensive metrics of both offensive and defensive contributions. Each player’s offensive and defensive ratings, on-ice performance, and contract value contribute to their overall Net Rating.
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The analysis shows a couple of surprises. First, Timothy Liljegren is rated as the best of the Maple Leafs defensemen. Second, one of the team’s highest-ranking defensemen is often a healthy scratch – that’s Conor Timmins. As well, I found Timmins’ contract numbers interesting. The analytics suggest that he has a surplus value of $5.4 Million.
Here are the analytic rankings.
Top-Rated Maple Leafs Defenseman: Timothy Liljegren: Defensive Dynamo
The analytics suggest that Liljegren brings a balanced defensive game to the Maple Leafs. With a current Net Rating of +9 and a forecast Net Rating of +7, Liljegren shows outstanding defensive capabilities. His impressive defensive percentile of 95% is driven by 183 blocks and a penalty plus-minus of 3. Both these contribute significantly to the team’s defensive stability.
- Current Net Rating: +9
- Forecast Net Rating: +7
- Age: 24
- Ice Time: 19:44
- Market Value: $7.6 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +1/+1
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +8/+6
- Notable: Strong defensive performance with a high percentile ranking of 95%. Substantial surplus value of $6.2 Million.
Second-Rated Maple Leafs Defenseman: Morgan Rielly: Offensive Powerhouse With Defensive Challenges
Not surprisingly, Morgan Rielly stands out as an offensive force with a current Net Rating of +6. However, his defensive percentile of 20% indicates room for improvement in defensive aspects. Rielly’s offense is a projection of 12 goals and 58 assists. The analytics suggest that, while his defense is improving this season, attention to defensive responsibilities would make for a more balanced contribution.
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- Current Net Rating: +6
- Forecast Net Rating: +6
- Age: 29
- Ice Time: 23:37
- Market Value: $7.2 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +11/+10
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -5/-4
- Notable: Exceptional offensive contribution with a percentile ranking of 98%. Despite a small negative surplus value of $300,000, Rielly remains a key player.
Third-Ranked Maple Leafs Defenseman: Conor Timmins: Balanced Contributor
As I noted earlier, Timmins is a bit of a surprise with his high ranking. The analytics suggest that he’s put up a balanced performance with a current Net Rating of +13. His forecast Net Rating of +5 suggests a consistently positive impact. Timmins’ defensive percentile of 71% is supported by 87 blocks and a penalty plus-minus of -15, emphasizing his well-rounded defensive game.
- Current Net Rating: +13
- Forecast Net Rating: +5
- Age: 25
- Ice Time: 15:03 (when he plays)
- Market Value: $6.5 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +9/+4
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +4/+1
- Notable: Well-balanced performance with notable offensive and defensive contributions. Surplus value of $5.4 Million.
Fourth-Rated Maple Leafs Defenseman: Jake McCabe: Reliable Two-Way Player
Jake McCabe has played a reliable two-way game for the Maple Leafs this season. His current Net Rating of +2 and his forecast Net Rating of +2 indicates stability. With a defensive percentile of 61%, McCabe contributes defensively through 138 blocks and a penalty plus-minus of -4. A balanced offensive and defensive approach defines his play.
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- Current Net Rating: +2
- Forecast Net Rating: +2
- Age: 30
- Ice Time: 20:35
- Market Value: $5.0 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +3/+2
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -1/0
- Notable: Consistent performance with positive contributions in both offensive and defensive aspects. Surplus contract value of $3.0 Million.
Fifth-Ranked Maple Leafs Defenseman: Mark Giordano: Veteran Presence With Defensive Challenges
Mark Giordano still has some offensive fire but also shows some challenges, with a current Net Rating of -2. His defensive percentile is in the middle at 46% and reflects some struggles in some aspects. Giordano’s 172 blocks contribute positively, but more defensive efficiency would help make him a more impactful player.
- Current Net Rating: -2
- Forecast Net Rating: -1
- Age: 40
- Ice Time: 16:01
- Market Value: $3.2 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +1/0
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -3/-1
- Notable: Despite being a veteran, Giordano maintains a respectable offensive presence with a surplus value of $2.4 Million.
Sixth-Ranked Maple Leafs Defenseman: TJ Brodie: Offensive Flair With Defensive Struggles
Interestingly, although TJ Brodie scores little, he does bring offensive contributions. However, he’s faced challenges defensively this season, with a current Net Rating of -3. His forecast Net Rating of -2 suggests potential improvements. Despite a defensive percentile of 35%, Brodie’s offensive abilities remain surprisingly noteworthy.
- Current Net Rating: -3
- Forecast Net Rating: -2
- Age: 33
- Ice Time: 20:56
- Market Value: $2.7 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +2/+1
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -5/-2
- Notable: While he has a positive offensive contribution, his market value slips with a negative surplus value due to his high salary.
Seventh-Rated Maple Leafs Defenseman: Simon Benoit: Defensive Specialist With Offensive Challenges
An analytic analysis suggests that Simon Benoit is a defensive specialist with a current Net Rating of 0. His forecast Net Rating of -3 reflects his negative offensive rating. However, Benoit’s defensive percentile of 91% is high. It’s driven by 127 blocks and a penalty plus-minus of -7. Further offensive contributions might enhance his comprehensive impact.
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- Current Net Rating: 0
- Forecast Net Rating: -3
- Age: 25
- Ice Time: 16:31
- Market Value: $2.3 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -8/-7
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +8/+4
- Notable: Defensive prowess with a high percentile ranking of 91% but a negative forecast net rating. He has a huge surplus market value of $1.5 million.
Eighth-Rated Maple Leafs Defenseman: William Lagesson: Defensive Focus With Limited Offensive Impact
William Lagesson is another defenseman whose play emphasizes defense but who faces challenges offensively, with a current Net Rating of -9. His forecast Net Rating of -6 indicates potential improvements. His steady defensive percentile of 67% is supported by 125 blocks and a penalty plus-minus of -12, showcasing a focus on defensive stability.
- Current Net Rating: -9
- Forecast Net Rating: -6
- Age: 27
- Ice Time: 14:41
- Market Value: $0.8 Million
- Offensive Rating (Current/Forecast): -10/-6
- Defensive Rating (Current/Forecast): +1/+1
- Notable: Limited offensive contribution but solid defensive presence. Minimal market value and surplus value.
The Bottom Line in Valuing the Maple Leafs’ Defensemen
An analytic look at the Maple Leafs’ defensemen reveals that the team has diverse defensemen with differing playing styles. Some excel in offensive contributions, while others emphasize defensive stability.
Although a balanced defensive corps is crucial for the team’s overall success, ongoing improvements in both offensive and defensive aspects would contribute to a stronger defensive unit. Interestingly, the analysis suggests that the team might have the kind of defensemen in Lagesson and Benoit who could show up in the postseason. Their focus on defense instead of offense might be what the team has been saying it needs.
