A few games into the 2024-25 NHL season and the New York Islanders have a hit-or-miss defense. They had a particularly rough opening night, allowing five goals in an overtime loss to the Utah Hockey Club but are coming off a game where they only allowed one goal to the St. Louis Blues in a 1-0 overtime loss.
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The hope was that hiring Patrick Roy as head coach would change that and make the defense a strength after it looked like a mess under Lane Lambert. It’s shown flashes but isn’t consistently dominant. The interesting nugget from the recent game was that the defense stepped up while Noah Dobson took a lighter workload. He’s the team’s top defenseman yet his 21:37 was third on the unit. It’s this shift that will lead to the defense being one the best in the league, especially early on in the season.
Dobson Needs the Mileage
It’s easy to have an overreaction to a few games (this piece itself can be seen as an overreaction to only four games.) The Islanders play 78 more games and it’s a long season that will have plenty of highs and lows. This is important to keep in mind since the season is a marathon and not a sprint and that’s pivotal for two of the Islanders’ top players: Dobson and goaltender Ilya Sorokin.
Dobson is the most impactful defenseman but he can’t be overworked. Like Sorokin, who took on too much of a workload and faced too many shots last season, Dobson playing more ice time will have him burnt out and playing a step behind by the end of the season.
The key will be to have Dobson play at one gear for the first half of the season and then play at another level as the season goes on. He averaged 24:31 ice time last season, a significant leap from his 20:22 career average. This season, he needs to play in the 20-22 minute range early on, and around the halfway point the Islanders can allow him to play in the range of last season’s numbers. It’s why the recent game was a positive sign. Sure, the offense was hapless in the 1-0 loss but the defense looked great in part because they didn’t need to rely on Dobson.
Islanders Must Balance the Unit
Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock have taken a step back in recent seasons. They are no longer the shutdown defensemen that have been key to the team’s success, most notably, the back-to-back playoff runs in 2020 and 2021. Regardless, Pelech and Pulock are still two of the Islanders’ best in the defensive zone.
The Islanders must see both skaters on the ice more this season to keep the defense from falling apart. Pelech and Pulock won’t add a spark on the offensive end of the ice or move the puck up the ice to set up the offense but they will continue to create turnovers and limit shots on the net. The duo can be relied on to turn the defense into a great unit and they must be treated as such.
The question is where the third pairing consisting of Mike Reilly and Scott Mayfield comes into play. Ideally, they will take on more ice time to balance out the unit and give the Islanders three great pairings. Unfortunately, they have been a liability, especially Mayfield who is still struggling (making the seven-year contract he signed in 2023 look poised to age poorly.) With this in mind, Reilly and Mayfield should still see the same ice time but instead of having a definitive top pair led by Dobson, the Islanders should deploy a 1A, 1B situation.
In the Long Run, Dobson & Romanov Will Carry the Unit
Early on this season, the Islanders must play with a balanced unit with the top two pairs taking on similar workloads. However, this defense will be carried by Dobson and Alexander Romanov by the end of the season. They are the two younger skaters who will take this unit to the next level and make the Islanders a contender in the Eastern Conference.
The offense drops off when Dobson is not on the ice to handle the puck into the offensive zone and open things up from the point. As the season goes on, he will improve across the board to carry the Islanders. Dobson is one of the best defensemen in the game and with him playing at a high level, the team will be near the top of the conference.
Romanov similarly will anchor the defense, albeit, while having a different skillset than Dobson. He’s the best defensive defenseman on the Islanders as he can deliver a big hit but also play the dirty areas and put his body on the line to keep the puck out of the net. Moreover, his play balances out Dobson’s and gives the Islanders a great top pairing.
The Islanders don’t have a great defense at the moment. That said, it should be a good unit by the end of the season and the reason they make the playoffs. Roy will have the team playing with more discipline and structure to win low-scoring games and the defense stepping up will be pivotal to a strong season ahead.
