It has almost been a week since the Toronto Maple Leafs were knocked out of the 2024 NHL Playoffs. The pill never gets easier to swallow; there is so much hype and passion surrounding the team just to see them fail yet again. But this time seems like the final straw; it seems like there could be real change coming this offseason.
With a new general manager (GM) at the helm, Brad Treliving, he will want to make this team his and get his fingerprints all over it. On top of that, he will also be challenged with what to do in terms of the big five players. There is almost $50 million locked up within five players, and he will need to figure out a way to address that. Ideally, he will look to move on from one of the five main pieces of this team, and if he can get creative, maybe two. The big one is Mitch Marner; he is entering the final year of his contract and will want a large bump in pay to be somewhere near or above William Nylander’s $11.5 million per season.
Treliving and the Maple Leafs can go to Marner’s camp and tell them they aren’t planning on paying him the money he is asking for. They can use this as leverage and convince him to look elsewhere. Unfortunately, he holds the leverage when it comes to the teams that he wants to go to, but if he would agree to it, the Maple Leafs could have a near-perfect trade partner in the Nashville Predators. They could work out a sign-and-trade with the Predators if he would sign off on it, and he would still be on a playoff team and could get the money that he is asking for. Let’s explore the idea further.
Full Trade
Toronto Maple Leafs Receive: Juuse Saros, Jeremy Lauzon, 2024 2nd Round Pick & 2025 1st Round Pick
Nashville Predators Receive: Mitch Marner (eight-year extension) & Calle Jarnkrok
Marner’s Fit with the Predators
Marner is a Markham-born hockey player who dreamed about one day playing for his boyhood Maple Leafs. He, unlike so many others, got that dream fulfilled when he was drafted by them in 2015. The narrative was already written; a hometown kid will grow up before our very eyes and help lead the Maple Leafs to the Stanley Cup. Well, it’s been nine years, and he and his team have only one playoff series win. On top of that, the media pressure has been getting worse, and over the years, he has especially appeared to grow more and more annoyed with it. After this year’s loss to the Boston Bruins in the first round.
Insert the Predators; Marner’s fit with them is as close to perfect as it gets. They need a star player, preferably a center, but a star. With Marner, they will be getting just that; he can score 95–100 points per season, plays in all situations, and with the potential for less media pressure, may finally be able to perform in the playoffs. With this deal being a sign-and-trade, the Predators would be given time to talk to his agent and work out a deal. Marner could receive anywhere in the ballpark north of $11.5 million for the full eight seasons. Realistically, he will probably want $12 million per season for eight seasons.
Related: Maple Leafs Could Add Multiple Defensemen if Marner Is Moved
The Predators will also receive Calle Jarnkrok, who is very familiar with the organization and their GM, Barry Trotz. With him having a modified no-trade clause, he would likely leave his former team off of the list, allowing Treliving to include him in the deal to clear $13 million in salary off of the books. For the Predators, they would be adding around 120-140 points per season in both Marner and Jarnkrok.
Maple Leafs’ Return
When a team trades a player of Marner’s calibre, you essentially expect to lose the trade. Most teams never win these types of trades, and in the Maple Leafs’ case, they know that. Their goal won’t be “winning” the trade but getting a respectable amount in return and ultimately clearing cap space while helping the organization stay competitive. This deal with the Predators does that for them. They would be acquiring Juuse Saros, who is a true number-one bona fide starter in the NHL, and Jeremy Lauzon, who is a Treliving-style defenceman. Saros is also entering the final year of his contract, and with Yaroslav Arskarov waiting in the wings to take over the crease, the likelihood of him wanting to stay long-term isn’t very high. This deal allows him to play in a new city with a new team and, if he is willing, re-sign with his new club.
Saros is what the Maple Leafs desperately need—a goalie who can steal games and isn’t a fringe starter. No disrespect to Ilya Samsonov, but his time with the organization is likely over, regardless of whether this deal is made or not. If Treliving can pull off this deal, it wouldn’t necessarily be a “loss” because it addresses major needs in the lineup; they would have that goalie that they have been lacking since Freddie Andersen, who can stop shots when they need them most and won’t cave under pressure. The Maple Leafs would then be able to offer him an extension and secure the crease alongside Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby for the entirety of Auston Matthews’ contract. Treliving should offer a new deal somewhere in the neighbourhood of $6.5–$7 million for the next four or five seasons. Currently, he is signed for $5 million and will most likely want a raise, and with the Maple Leafs not having Marner’s contract on the books, they will be able to offer Saros $6.5-$7 million.
Related: Maple Leafs Need to Move on From Either Marner or Rielly
Additionally, Lauzon is a bone crusher; he threw the most hits in the NHL last season and loves to play on the defensive side of the puck. He is similar to Joel Edmundson, whom Treliving acquired at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, for the style of play that he brings to the team. Lauzon is a left-handed shooting defenceman who can play either side and could find a home on a pairing with either Simon Benoit or Edmundson if they offer him an extension. They will also receive two draft picks: a second-round pick in the upcoming 2024 Draft and a 2025 first-round pick. Not only is it crucial to get as much back as you can when you part ways with a high-end player like Marner, but it is also important for the team to recoup draft capital.
As was already mentioned, the Maple Leafs will be aware that they are probably going to lose this trade if they decide to trade Marner. That might only be on paper, though, as this deal in particular might provide the team with the much-needed cap space to address other areas of need. Ultimately, it could be the leading factor in the Maple Leafs one day winning the Stanley Cup, which wouldn’t make this trade a ‘loss”. This is the exact reason why Treliving should give the Predators a call and pitch a Marner for Saros deal, as it helps both sides find the potential missing pieces.
