While the Tampa Bay Lightning’s bottom-six has been depleted since their back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships in 2020 and 2021, the fourth line has shown positive signs recently. Despite a 2-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place on Tuesday night (Dec. 10), the Lightning’s fourth line was a bright spot.
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The trio of Michael Eyssimont and Zemgus Girgensons, centered by Luke Glendening, has been fantastic at suppressing the quality of unblocked shot attempts (xGA/60) against when on the ice together. Here’s a look at why this line could stick for head coach Jon Cooper and the Bolts come playoff time.
Neutralizing Play Against Opponents is Enough for Fourth Line
The Lightning’s fourth line won’t produce much offensively. The line has combined for four goals and eight points 26 games into the season. But that’s not a concern since the Bolts’ top six forwards continue to score at an elite rate at five-on-five.
The critical difference between last season’s bottom six and this season’s is puck possession and unblocked shot attempts. Last season, fourth-line players like Glendening, Tyler Motte, and Tanner Jeannot were severely dominated in dangerous Fenwick for percentage (DFF%) against “elite” competition via PuckIQ. This statistic uses factors like distance, angle, and shot type to assign a weight for unblocked shot attempts, similar to expected goals (xG). The fourth-line players controlled 34.3%, 43%, and 43.5% of the on-ice dangerous Fenwick for share (DFF%). However, this season has been very different.
Not only has the Eyssimont, Girgenons, and Glendening line been effective against bottom-six competition, but also against some of the NHL’s most talented forwards. Despite the small sample size, the players individually control 53.5%, 59.9%, and 57.3% of the dangerous Fenwick share (DFF%). Furthermore, in 93 minutes of ice time together, the trio has controlled 63.2% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%) via MoneyPuck.
Not to mention, they are also creating a decent amount of offensive scoring chances, but their relative lack of skill will always keep them below their individual expected goal rates (ixG). The fourth line generates just 0.05 expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) less than the Lightning’s top line. Yet, their most impressive stat is their defensive chance suppression. The trio’s 1.61 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) ranks fourth among 85 different forward line combinations with over 90 minutes together this season.
Lightning Must Address Middle-Six Scoring Over Fourth Line Players at Trade Deadline
Contrary to popular belief, the Lightning’s main weakness upfront lies with the second-line right wing and third-line roles, while the fourth line should remain together. Players like Mitchell Chaffee and Gage Goncalves have been on the score sheet here and there for the Bolts, but their solid goals for percentage (GF%) aren’t sustainable long-term based on their possession metrics. The Lightning must address their secondary scoring because their fourth line has proven they can hold their own on the ice against any level of competition.
During the offseason, the Lightning added some assets that could be made available to fix their middle-six forward group. Players like Kaapo Kakko and Nils Hoglander make intriguing trade targets as young players on good contracts who may benefit from a change of scenery. At this stage of the contention window, Tampa Bay can’t keep giving up high-end draft picks for rentals. They must start prioritizing the organization’s future as they did when they swapped Jake Guentzel for Steven Stamkos this summer.
Closing Thoughts
With the Lightning’s fourth line building more chemistry in recent weeks, the forward group’s defensive abilities shouldn’t be a priority for the front office. Eyssimont and the other forwards on the line are starting to get their bounces after a dry offensive start. Keep an eye out for this trio in the coming weeks, they’ve had a major impact in Tampa Bay.
