Entering the 2024-25 season, the hunt for the Calder Trophy to determine the NHL’s best rookie was expected to be a close one. That’s exactly what’s happening. With different Rookie of the Month winners for October, November, and December, let’s take a look at each of them and see why they deserve to take home some hardware in the summer.
The Case for Macklin Celebrini
Despite being in a stacked race for the Calder Trophy, the San Jose Sharks’ Macklin Celebrini, the first-overall pick in 2024, appears to be the frontrunner. A top-line center with favorable results relative to his teammates and an elite scoring pace for an 18-year-old, it’s not hard to see why. His case is being the most well-rounded of the bunch.
For starters, we can look at Celebrini’s point production. With 27 in 28 games, we know that’s good, but it can be contextualized a bit further. How good is that historically?
Back in September, I compiled points per game (P/G) totals from the league’s top stars from their early years. Specifically, the top 20 centers and wingers entering the 2024-25 season as listed by NHL Network (from ‘How Early Can You Tell If a Player Will be an NHL Star?,’ The Hockey Writers – NHL Stuff, September 2024).
From the season before they were eligible to be drafted (draft-minus-one) all the way up to their sixth season following eligibility (draft-plus-six), I tracked their P/G among fellow forwards for their league (10 games played requirement), putting them in a percentile. Celebrini, in his draft-plus-one season, is rather unique for being in the NHL already. How does he compare to other draft-plus-one NHLers on the list?
Of those 40 forwards mentioned, only 13 met the games played requirement for the NHL when they were Celebrini’s age. The rest spent their time in juniors or in some other professional league. Let’s hone in on those 13 players.
Through Jan. 1, 2025, Celebrini is in the 90th percentile for P/G this season, sitting at 0.96. Of that list of stars, just two of them were within three percentile points (87th to 93rd) of Celebrini in their draft-plus-one campaign. Take a look:
| Player | Season | P/G (Percentile) | Calder Trophy Win? |
| Macklin Celebrini | 2024-25 | 0.96 (90th) | N/A |
| Connor Bedard | 2023-24 | 0.90 (89th) | Yes |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 2013-14 | 0.77 (89th) | Yes |
Throwing the word “superstar” out there this early may seem a tad premature, but that’s your likely outcome. Getting to the Calder Trophy, though, Celebrini’s odds seem promising when you look at the list. He’s having a scoring campaign similar to that of the reigning winner of the award, Connor Bedard.
Only, Celebrini is doing this is a better all-around player. In fact, he may be one of the most polished rookies we’ve ever seen.
Strong in all three zones, Celebrini ranks fourth among Sharks forwards in goal share (48.57%) and expected goal share (46.26%) at 5-on-5. While he’s not technically winning his minutes, he’s doing so relative to his teammates. Also worth noting is his deployment—he’s a first-line center (19:54 average ice time) on a rebuilding team, yet is just barely being outscored at 5-on-5. This makes him immensely valuable, and he’s only 18.
Related: Hockey Advanced Analytics: What Are They & Why Are They Important?
The eye test backs up all the numbers. Celebrini loves to create, always keeping the opposition on their heels with his uncanny ability to win board battles. This has given the Sharks the boost that they so desperately needed in 2023-24. While they still have one of the worst records in the league (11-23-6), the entertainment value has skyrocketed—hockey is fun in San Jose again, and it will be for years to come. There’s one player in particular to thank, so the least he could get is the Calder Trophy.
The Case for Lane Hutson
While the Calder Trophy is probably Celebrini’s to lose at this point, that doesn’t mean Lane Hutson isn’t making a case for himself. In reality, the left-shot defender would probably be the runaway favorite in most other years. That’s some heavy praise, so let’s dive into his resume.
The 20-year-old Hutson has 26 points in 37 games for the Montreal Canadiens this season, with 24 of those being assists. There have been critiques of his defensive ability, but his 49.23% goal share and 47.53% expected goal share rank second and third respectively among Canadiens defensemen this season at 5-on-5. Averaging over 22 minutes of ice time each night, he’s similar to Celebrini in that department—good results relative to his teammates even with big responsibilities.
Related: Lane Hutson Forcing Canadiens Front Office to Make a Decision on Mike Matheson
Still, Hutson’s production is what makes him stand out. Per Evolving-Hockey, there are three defensemen with at least 1.70 points per 60 minutes (500 minutes required) between their draft-plus-one and draft-plus-three seasons. He joins a small and special group of players:
| Player | Seasons | Assists Per 60 | Points Per 60 |
| Cale Makar | 2019-20 | 1.90 | 2.52 |
| Quinn Hughes | 2018-21 | 1.81 | 2.04 |
| Lane Hutson | 2023-25 | 1.71 | 1.85 |
If you’ll remember, Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes finished first and second place respectively for the Calder Trophy in 2019-20. Today, they both have a Norris Trophy to their name.
With that in mind, what Hutson is doing is nothing short of remarkable. Even if we look at players beyond his age range, he’s still equally formidable. This season, his 24 helpers are tied for seventh in the NHL with Victor Hedman, putting him among the elite. In first and second place, we see two familiar names: Makar (35) and Hughes (34).
Hutson is doing this with sustainable luck, only benefitting from an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.50 (meaning, one of every eight Montreal shots goes in the net while he’s on the ice). Shooting percentages are one of the most random elements in hockey, which can lead to outlier totals. But not in Hutson’s case. His 12.50% on-ice rate is 12th among his 26 teammates despite regular power-play usage.
Considering Celebrini’s dominance this season, all of this may still not be enough to win him the Calder Trophy. It might not even be enough for second place. But if we ignore this historically unprecedented race for a minute, what you’ll find is one of the best young offensive defensemen of this generation. His future is incredibly bright, regardless of how many votes he gets for this award—nothing changes.
The Case for Matvei Michkov
Similar to Hutson, 20-year-old winger Matvei Michkov catches some flack for his lack of defensive prowess. Also like Hutson, he completely makes up for it with his sensational offensive ability.
With 29 points in 36 games this season, Michkov is the league’s top-scoring rookie. Better yet, he’s doing it with only 16:34 of average ice time while simultaneously trying to learn the English language—the Russian’s setbacks stand out more than the others. The Philadelphia Flyers have themselves a warrior.
Though he’s new to the North American game and culture unlike the two players listed above, he’s right there with them production-wise. According to Evolving-Hockey, only three players since 2007-08 have put up at least one goal and one primary assist per 60 minutes (500 minutes required) between their draft-plus-one and draft-plus-two seasons. The two who aren’t Michkov are making eight-figure salaries:
| Player | Seasons | Goals Per 60 | Primary Assists Per 60 |
| Connor McDavid | 2015-17 | 1.07 | 1.39 |
| Elias Pettersson | 2018-19 | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Matvei Michkov | 2024-25 | 1.21 | 1.01 |
Had Connor McDavid not suffered an injury in his rookie season (2015-16), it’s safe to say he would’ve won the Calder Trophy. Elias Pettersson didn’t, and he took home the award in 2018-19. This is the group Michkov finds himself in.
To further contextualize how impressive Michkov is, let’s revisit the criteria mentioned above (players with 500 minutes of ice time between their draft-plus-one and draft-plus-two seasons since 2007-08). If we just look at points per 60, he ranks sixth among those players, even with his recent seven-game point drought. Behind him but also in the top 10 of that list are Patrick Kane, Mitch Marner, Jonathan Toews, and, making his return, Celebrini.
Speaking of Celebrini, let’s return to the data that I was talking about in his section regarding point per game percentiles. Michkov is in his draft-plus-two season, but that doesn’t mean his 83rd percentile P/G isn’t similar to some of the top players in the NHL when they were his age. The players in that aforementioned 40-name list within three percentile points of Michkov in their draft-plus-two campaign are below:
| Player | Season | P/G (Percentile) |
| Connor Bedard | 2024-25 | 0.87 (86th) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 2015-16 | 0.71 (86th) |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 2017-18 | 0.72 (84th) |
| Matvei Michkov | 2024-25 | 0.81 (83rd) |
| Nico Hischier | 2018-19 | 0.68 (80th) |
| Tim Stützle | 2021-22 | 0.73 (80th) |
Again, Michkov is doing this with pretty inconsistent ice time and the barrier that is living in Russia for his whole life. This is probably somewhat of a culture shock to him, yet you probably wouldn’t be able to tell by the numbers. His 52.00% expected goal share at 5-on-5 usurps Celebrini and Hutson, but his 45.24% goal share is the worst—something that’s more of a team-wide issue than his own fault.
Michkov has fallen back a bit in terms of Calder Trophy odds, as he was once the top choice. But like Hutson, winning the award won’t change his trajectory. Odds are, he will be a superstar one day.
The fact that this piece doesn’t include Dustin Wolf, who has been one of the better netminders in the NHL and helped the Calgary Flames emerge as a surprise playoff contender, further shows how tight this race is. This season, being a finalist is almost as big an honor as winning the Calder Trophy in previous ones. With four months of regular-season hockey remaining, it should be an exciting finish.
Advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (unless specified otherwise)
