After being one of the best regular-season teams in the NHL’s Eastern Conference for the past few years, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a battle for a wild-card spot this season.
As of the All-Star Break, they are in fourth in the Atlantic Division, a point behind the third-place Tampa Bay Lightning, who have 59 points, and tied with the Detroit Red Wings at 58 points. Toronto is ahead of both in winning percentage and has three games in hand.
That said, games in hand do not always translate to points on the board, especially given the up-and-down season the Maple Leafs are having.
Media Seems to Be Divided on Trade Deadline Strategy
There has been lots of speculation in the media about what the Maple Leafs should do between now and the trade deadline on March 8. Some experts think the team should go all-in as they have the past two seasons. Others think that with Auston Matthews and William Nylander signed to new contracts they should take a longer-term view. They should not trade away any more of their future – as they have done in recent years. Others still, think the team is so bad that it would be a waste of assets to try and bolster the roster for a long playoff push.
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However, the one thing that everyone seems to agree on is that the Maple Leafs, as they are presently constructed, are simply not good enough to challenge for the Stanley Cup. Or are they? How good are the so-called experts at predicting which teams are capable of competing and which teams aren’t?
NHL History Is Replete with Examples of Teams Lifting Their Game
Last season, the Florida Panthers were given no chance to get past the powerhouse Boston Bruins. The Panthers barely made the postseason, while the Bruins set a record for points in a season with 135 – Boston finished 43 points ahead of Florida. One more loss by the Panthers or one more win by the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida doesn’t even make the postseason.
(Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Not only did the Panthers upset the Bruins in the first round, but they also beat the Maple Leafs and the Carolina Hurricanes on their way to the Stanley Cup Final where they lost to the Vegas Golden Knights.
During the COVID-shortened season in 2021, the Montreal Canadiens made the playoffs in the all-Canadian North Division by winning just two more games than they lost. They were given no chance against the first-place Maple Leafs in the first round. Not only did they get past Toronto, but they defeated the Winnipeg Jets in the second round and the Golden Knights in round three before losing to the Lightning in the Final.
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Two seasons before that, on Jan. 1, 2019, the St. Louis Blues were dead last in the NHL. They were given no chance of making the playoffs. Not only did they make the postseason but they won the Stanley Cup.
None of these teams were deemed good enough by experts to challenge for the Stanley Cup. But they did. The fact is, in sports, you never know. On any given day or in any given series, any team can beat any other team. Teams get hot. Other teams fail.
The 2024 Playoffs Are Still More than Two Months Away
The 2024 Playoffs are still ten weeks away. The Maple Leafs still have 35 games to play. That is a long time and a lot of games. Toronto might not look like a winning team right now, but the same could be said for the 2023 Panthers, the 2021 Canadiens, and the 2019 Blues as the calendar turned from January into February.
(Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
In the last three seasons, the Maple Leafs had a playoff spot locked up by this date. The only questions that were still to be answered were where they would finish and who would be their opponent. They had plenty of time to spend thinking about and preparing for the postseason. This season, they are too busy fighting for a playoff spot to even consider thinking beyond that.
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Let’s say they make the postseason by claiming a wild-card spot with the roster they have now. If they aren’t considered to be good enough for a deep run now, they won’t be any better then. That would cast them in a different role than in recent years. Maybe, it’s time to act differently.
The Bottom Line: Maple Leafs Trying Something Different
We know that going in as a favourite and changing a good portion of the roster in the last months of the regular season hasn’t worked for the Maple Leafs in the last two seasons. Maybe having to claw tooth and nail for a playoff spot and going in as underdogs might be a role they are better suited for.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
